4/8/2016 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.4K
Employment Change Actual: 40.6K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.1%
SPIKE / REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7653
1st peak @ 0.7694 – 0830:08 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7673 – 0831:00 (2 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.7695 – 0841 (11 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.7682 – 0848 (18 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Premature spike at 0829:46 would have disqualified the trade as it climbed 15 ticks and collapsed. Then it was frenetic in the ascent after the news and surrendered half of the spike immediately. The only opening hear is a buy on a potential 2nd peak at the .7675 area as it found support. Then look to capture 15 – 20 ticks as you evaluate how it handles the R3 Mid Pivot.

5/9/2014 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 12.8K
Employment Change Actual: -28.9K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.9%
Rate Actual: 6.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9222
1st Peak @ 0.9168 – 0830:03 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.9189 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9153 – 0908 (38 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.9175 – 0953 (83 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Very disappointing report with nearly 30K jobs lost when a gain of about 13K was forecast. This caused a stable large short spike of 54 ticks in the first 3 sec that started just above the LOD and fell to eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9201 with 14 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak quickly but surrender about 15 ticks after a few sec. A profit target of anything less than 30 would have easily filled. Otherwise you could look to exit around 9185 for 16 ticks where it hovered later in the bar, or be patient and wait for it to drop due to the very biased result. After a reversal of 21 ticks to the S1 Pivot, it stepped lower to eventually conquer the S2 Mid Pivot and carve out 15 more ticks on the final peak. Then it reversed for 22 ticks in 45 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA.

8/8/2014 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 25.4K
Employment Change Actual: 0.2K (corrected to 41.7K one week later)
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.0%
Rate Actual: 7.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9152
1st Peak @ 0.9112 – 0830:59 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.9124 – 0845 (15 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9105 – 0925 (55 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 0.9112 – 0941 (71 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Very disappointing report with nearly no change in jobs lost when a gain of about 25K was forecast. This caused a large short spike of 40 ticks total with 30 ticks in the first sec that started on the R1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs, the S2 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9134 with 11 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture over 20 ticks as it peaked slowly late in the bar. After a double bottom 7 min later, it reversed for 12 ticks to the 20 SMA in 8 min. This presented a great short entry for a 2nd peak trade as it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 40 min using the 13/20 SMAs as resistance until it reached the S3 Mid Pivot. You could have captured up to 17 ticks. Then it reversed for 7 ticks back to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

3/13/2015 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: -3.5K
Employment Change Actual: -1.0K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.7%
Rate Actual: 6.8%
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7841
1st Peak @ 0.7867 – 0830:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.7824 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-43 ticks

Notes: Fortunately this report gave us a warning with extreme chaos 9 sec before the report at 08:29:51. This resulted in a whipsaw with a span of nearly 40 ticks in 4 sec, so cancel the order by unchecking the “enabled” button on the strategy tab in the control center. The results were conflicting with the jobs narrowly beating the forecast offset by an uptick in the unemployment rate by 0.1% to cause the whipsaw on the open of the 0831 bar.

7/10/2015 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: -9.0K
Employment Change Actual: -6.4K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.9%
Rate Actual: 6.8%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7869
Whipsaw between 0.7855 and 0.7886 – 0830:00 (1 min)
31 tick span

Pullback to 0.7889 – 0830:24 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7872 – 0844 (14 min)
17 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.7834 – 0942 (72 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 0.7855 – 1008 (98 min)
21 ticks

Notes: This report lived up to the advertised risk and gave us a whipsaw spanning 31 ticks in the opening second. This would have filled either long or short, then stopped with a few ticks of slippage for about a 20 tick loss. In the remainder of the :31 bar, it pulled back 20 ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot and HOD before reversing on the back end of the bar. Then it hit a triple top in the next 3 min before reversing 17 ticks in 13 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. It continued to reverse for another 38 ticks in about an hour to the S1 Pivot before pulling back 21 ticks in 26 min after crossing the S1 Mid Pivot / 50 SMA.