Oct 252011

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 10.25.11

10/25/2011 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 0.9919
1st Peak @ 0.9870 – 0308 (8 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9738 – 0407 (67 min)
181 ticks – 2x bottom

Reversal to 0.9792 – 0421 (81 min)
54 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today, cut its growth outlook for the Canadian economy and removed a reference to withdrawing stimulus as the global economy slows. The country’s economy will grow more slowly than projected, and take longer to return to its capacity level. The market reacted by diving into a downward fan. This was not apparent though after the first 8 min when a short term reversal happened. It would be prudent to exit after :06 candle, then watch the market. After seeing the reversal peter out on the :21 candle, get in short. You could stay in until :38 with the long string of red candles, or wait it out until the two big red candles at the end of the fan. The distance from the 13 was large, and the MACD was very negative after more than an hour of falling, so a reversal is likely then. The reversal delivered 54 ticks in 14 min quickly. After that a slower corrective upward trend took over.