-072312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
7/23/2012 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (2100 HI time / 0300 EDT)
Forecast: 45.6
Actual: 43.6
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 45.2
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.2118 (2058)
1st Peak @ 1.2110 – 2059 (1 min)
8 ticks
Reversal to 1.2141 – 2121 (23 min)
31 ticks
Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 2058. The reading came in 2 points under the forecast to disappoint. This caused a small 8 tick short spike over 1 bar that did not cross any SMA or Pivot, but extended the LOD 2 ticks. This caused a surprisingly quick reversal after 7 sec of hovering near the LOD. With a fairly disappointing report, we would expect a larger sustainable drop. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.2114 with 1 tick of slippage. Since the 50 SMA and PP Pivot above should serve as resistance, I would move the stop loss to 1 tick above the 50 SMA at 1.2122, then wait for a secondary drop. When that did not happen it would be an 8 tick loss, but this report reaction is an anomaly. After hitting the LOD, it reversed strongly for 31 ticks in about 20 min. Then it came back down to the 200 SMA to wait on the German report results.