EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 06-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

Apr 242016

6E 06-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
DULL FILL
Started @ 1.1382
1st Peak @ 1.1375 – 0500:22 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.1392 – 0507 (7 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1.1381 – 0511 (11 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.1377
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.1376 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.1374 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) – move up slightly

Notes: Dull Fill but offered a breakeven or 1 tick exit at the intersection of the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA. A nice reversal followed for 17 ticks to the R1 Pivot.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 112016

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 6.3
Actual: 4.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 9934.0
1st Peak @ 9917.0 – 0600:33 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 9937.5 – 0601:20 (2 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 9922.5 – 0604 (4 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 9957.5 – 0605 (5 min)
70 ticks

Expected Fill: 9930.0 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9918.0 – 24 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9914.0 (just above the 50 SMA) – move slightly higher

Notes: Nice moderate short spike but be sure to exit after seeing hovering and an early reversal start to materialize. It eventually reversed to the S1 Mid Pivot.

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3.22.2016

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Apr 112016

FDAX 06-16 (1 Min) 3_22_2016

3/22/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 106.1
Actual: 106.7
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 9874.5
1st Peak @ 9869.0 – 0500:05 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 9910.0 – 0500:50 (1 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 9874.0 – 0505 (5 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 9916.0 – 0515 (15 min)
84 ticks

Pullback to 9874.5 – 0524 (24 min)
83 ticks

Expected Fill: 9571.5
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9571.5 (Breakeven after 10 sec) otherwise likely exit stopped for 10 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9850.00 area (just above the 50 SMA)

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.23.2016

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Mar 232016

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_23_2016

2/23/2016 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 107.0
Actual: 105.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 9510.5
1st Peak @ 9516.5 – 0400:08 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 9506.5 – 0400:36 (1 min)
20 ticks

Continued Reversal to 9493.5 – 0405 (5 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 9526.0 – 0409 (9 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 9513.5
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 9515.5 (4 ticks)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 9521.00 area (just above the 200 SMA) – move lower

Notes: Report caused a small initial move that lasted about 12 sec before reversing. If left alone, the stop would have been taken after 14 sec. After seeing the hovering and reluctance to launch, move the stop up to Breakeven or just below and look to exit. It reversed to the OOD before pulling back to eclipse the 200 SMA.

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2.16.2016

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 152016

FDAX 03-16 (1 Min) 2_16_2016

2/16/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.1
Actual: 1.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 9164.0
1st Peak @ 9160.0 – 0500:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 9171.0 – 0500:22 (1 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 9114.0 – 0512 (12 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 9154.0 – 0524 (24 min)
80 ticks

Expected Fill: 9161.0 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: stopped at 9166.0 – 10 ticks loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Indecisive initially as the report was close to matching and it only fell 8 ticks then snapped back. Still, remember this report nearly always goes for a 2nd peak of about 60 ticks within 20 min. This case is no different as it used the resistance of the 20 SMA to drive it lower to the S1 Pivot in 11 min for 100 ticks.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.29.2016

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Feb 182016

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_29_2016

1/29/2016 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.0916
1st Bar span 1.0919 to 1.0911 – 0500:25 (1 min)
+3 / -5 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order as it did not move 5 ticks from the origin until 25 sec after the release.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.18.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 032014

2/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 61.3
Actual: 55.7
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3724 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3710 – 0500:05 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3721 – 0501:38 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3707 – 0516 (16 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3735 – 0614 (74 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3714 (below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1.3707 (just below the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3732 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 1.3741 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast by 5.6 points. This caused a short move of 14 ticks initially that crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the R1 Pivot, then a reversal of 11 ticks back to the R2 Pivot and 20 SMA. This was a good setup of the Trap Trade. The inner long entry would have filled with 4 ticks to spare. You would have seen 4 ticks of heat followed by a quick reversal on the :02 bar that gave back 11 ticks to the R2 Pivot. The reversal normally takes longer to pan out, but also does not rebound for as many ticks, so it would be wise to get out above the 50 SMA with about 6 ticks. If you waited a few more bars, then look to exit at about 1.3718 with 4 ticks due to the large offset of the result and the 50 SMA holding as resistance. It achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 28 ticks in the next hour, crossing the R3 Mid Pivot.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 082014

2/20/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 48.5
Previous Revision: +0.5 to 49.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.5
Actual: 46.9
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 48.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3732 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3706 – 0259 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3717 – 0303 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3699 – 0324 (26 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.3707 – 0328 (30 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast to disappoint with a modest upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 2.6 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a healthy short spike of 26 ticks on the :59 bar that started just underneath the S1 Mid Pivot and 13 SMA then crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and almost reached the S2 Pivot while extended the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3714 with abnormally high 15 ticks of slippage then seen it hover between 3 ticks of heat and 7 ticks of profit for the rest of the bar. After the opening few seconds, move the profit target to about 1.3708 after seeing it hit the 1.3706 area several times without penetrating. After the reversal achieved an 11 tick rebound in the next 4 bars back to the S2 Mid Pivot, it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 20 min later, crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back for 8 ticks just before the German report release.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.14

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 082014

2/20/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 56.4
Actual: 54.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 56.5
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 53.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3705 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3680 – 0329 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3709 – 0345 (17 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.7 points below the forecast to disappoint with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 2.0 points above the forecast with a modest downward previous report revision to cause a healthy spike that was unsustainable due the conflicted results. This resulted in a 25 tick short move as the manufacturing reading dominated that started on the S2 Pivot and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3700 with 2 ticks of slippage, then a target of up to 19 ticks would filled instantly. After it fell to 1.3680, it retreated to hover in between 1.3685 and 1.3690 before retreating further 17 sec into the bar. This is a case where you have the S3 Mid Pivot at 1.3684 and conflicting news, so move the profit target to about 1.3687 if not filled already to exit with about 13 ticks. After the :29 bar, it continued to slowly pullback long for the next 16 min to the 50 SMA for a total of 29 ticks. After that it fell in a failed attempt at a 2nd peak for only 15 ticks, hitting a low as the EURO-zone readings came in disappointing.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.24.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Mar 102014

2/24/2013 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EST)
Forecast: 110.7
Actual: 111.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3754
1st Peak @ 1.3773 – 0401 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3758 – 0420 (20 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.6 points above the forecast and continues to remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small decisive and stable spike of 34 ticks that peaked early on the :02 bar as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3765 with 7 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture just a few ticks as it hovered between 1 and 8 ticks profit until 25 sec into the :31 bar. With the narrow offset, larger spike, and struggling in vicinity of the R1 Pivot, look to exit with about 5 ticks. After the :01 bar, it chopped sideways underneath the R1 Pivot, then eventually fell to the area of the HOD before the news extended it, claiming 15 ticks in 20 min. Then it settled down and traded sideways near the 50 SMA.

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