EUR Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 3.24.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/24/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 51.9
Previous Revision: +1.2 to 49.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 47.9
Actual: 51.4
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 47.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3796
1st Peak @ 1.3839 – 0401 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.3812 – 0404 (4 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report normally breaks 2 min early at 0358, but the protocol was changed on this report to be at 0400. The manufacturing reading came in 2.1 points above the forecast to impress the market with a healthy upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 3.5 points above the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a large long spike of 43 ticks on the :01 bar that was shortly sustained. It started just underneath the 100/200 SMAs, then crossed the LOD and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3811 with 12 ticks of slippage then seen it hover between 7 and 10 ticks of profit for most of the rest of the bar. After the opening few seconds, if your profit target was not filled, move the profit target to about 1.3820, just above the R2 Mid Pivot. After the :01 bar, it fell for another 7 ticks to 1.3812 on the :04 bar, then made a small pullback above the R2 Mid Pivot before trading sideways heading into the German report release.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 3.24.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 242014

3/24/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 54.7
Actual: 53.8
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 54.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.8
Actual: 54.0
Previous Revision: +0.5 to 55.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3815
1st Peak @ 1.3787 – 0431 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3804 – 0452 (22 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3767 – 0532 (62 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.3776 – 0554 (114 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is now released at :30. The manufacturing reading came in 0.9 points below the forecast to disappoint with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.8 points below the forecast with a modest upward previous report revision to cause a healthy short spike that was unsustainable due to crossing the PP Pivot, 200/100 SMAs and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3801 with 10 ticks of slippage, then a target of up to 13 ticks would filled instantly. After it fell to 1.3787, it retreated to hover in between 1.3804 and 1.3798 for most of the rest of the bar. If not filled with the profit target, look to exit with a handful of ticks. After the :31 bar, it fell to attempt a quick 2nd peak in the next 5 min, but could not conquer the PP Pivot. Then it reversed for 17 ticks, crossing the 100/200 SMA on the :52 bar before falling for a slow and late developing 2nd peak of 20 more ticks 1 hour after the report. Then it retreated for 9 ticks back to the 50 SMA.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 3.18.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 112014

3/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 52.8
Actual: 46.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3911 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 1.3894 – 0600:09 (1 min)
-17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3900 – 0600:20 (1 min)
6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3888 – 0605 (5 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.3902 – 0612 (12 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3913 – 0632 (32 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3901 (below the LOD) / 1.3892 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3921 (just above the PP Pivot/OOD) / 1.3928 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast by 6.2 points. This caused a short move of 17 ticks initially that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Pivot, then a reversal of 6 ticks before it slowly settled down for a 2nd peak of another 6 ticks as it crossed the S1 Pivot. This was a good setup of the Trap Trade and a good lesson. The inner long entry would have filled instantly then you would have been riding between 1-5 ticks of heat for most of the next 2 bars. Since this report always reverses to the origin, we advise waiting it out. The secondary push lower would have filled your outer long entry making your average position about 1.3896. With the origin at 1.3911, move your target down to be on the 200 SMA, and look for 15 ticks (30 total ticks). It took over 30 min, but it got there with the long delay attributed to the large offset.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 3.25.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

Apr 172014

3/25/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 110.9
Actual: 110.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3828
1st Peak @ 1.3814 – 0500:13 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3835 – 0500:33 (1 min)
21 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3845 – 0512 (12 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3803 – 0551 (51 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3816 – 0633 (93 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The reading came in only 0.2 points below the forecast to nearly match and continues to remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small and shortly lived spike of 14 ticks that reversed after 13 sec into the bar after crossing the PP Pivot and extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.3822 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture up to 7 ticks with a profit target. If you did not have a profit target, look for a quick exit after hearing the near matching results for 2-5 ticks. It reversed for 21 ticks in the next 20 sec up to 50/100 SMAs, then continued for another 10 ticks in the next 11 min up to the HOD. Then it fell for a surprising 2nd peak of 11 ticks more than the original spike, losing steam just above the S1 Mid Pivot in about 40 min. After that it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 42 min, crossing the 50 SMA and nearly reaching the 100 SMA.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 4.15.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 042014

4/15/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 46.3
Actual: 43.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 1.3795 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 1.3787 – 0500:06 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 1.3799 – 0500:20 (1 min)
12 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.3803 – 0503 (3 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 1.3794 – 0510 (10 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3786 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 1.3778 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.3804 (No SMA/Pivot near)/1.3813 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast by 3.1 points. This caused a short move of 8 ticks initially in 6 sec that extended the LOD, then a reversal of 12 ticks in the next 14 sec. This would have just missed the inner long entry by 1 tick, and the reversal would not have gotten close to the short entry. So cancel the order and the flyby and live for another day. We can see that the Trap Trade approach is still the best approach for this report as the reversal was immediate and the extended reaction was counterintuitive as the reversal continued to climb for a total of 16 ticks, crossing the 50/100 SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot. Then we saw a pullback of 9 ticks that fell to the S2 Pivot. After that it traded sideways around the 50/100 SMAs and climbed about an hour later.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 4.23.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082014

4/23/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 51.8
Services PMI
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 51.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3822
1st Peak @ 1.3806 – 0301 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3814 – 0302 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3798 – 0321 (21 min)
24 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.0 points below the forecast to disappoint the market with a negligible downward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 1.2 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a moderate short spike of 16 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and the 100/200. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3814 with 5 ticks of slippage then seen it hover around 1.3811 for several seconds in the middle of the bar. Look to exit there for about 3-4 ticks. you could also move the stop to about 1.3815 and wait for the strongly likely 2nd peak using the PP Pivot at 1.3804 as a target for about 10-11 ticks. After it reversed to 1.3814 on the :02 bar at the R1 Mid Pivot, it fell for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in the next 19 min, nearly reaching the LOD. Then it traded sideways heading into the German report release.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 4.23.2014

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082014

4/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 54.2
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 53.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.5
Actual: 55.0
Previous Revision: -1.0 to 53.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3800
1st Peak @ 1.3816 – 0331 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3808 – 0332 (2 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3854 – 0438 (68 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 1.3842 – 0445 (75 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.3 points above the forecast to impress with a negligible downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision to cause a healthy long spike that crossed the PP Pivot, 50 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3810 with 7 ticks of slippage, then most likely your target would not have filled as it only climbed 6 more ticks. With the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA at 1.3813, that would have been a prudent area to exit for about 3-4 ticks. After a small reversal it started stepping higher, using the 13/20 SMAs as a floor until it climbed another 38 ticks in the next hour. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 7 min back to the R2 Pivot.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 4.24.2014

German lfo Business Climate Comments Off

May 082014

4/24/2014 German IFO Business Climate (0400 EDT)
Forecast: 110.5
Actual: 111.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3831
1st Peak @ 1.3842 – 0400:05 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.3832 – 0403 (3 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 1.3838 – 0406 (6 min)
6 ticks

Notes: The reading came in 0.7 points above the forecast to impress and remain at top of the range of readings in multiple years. This caused a small and shortly lived spike of 11 ticks that reversed after 13 sec into the bar after crossing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 1.3838 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up briefly to give about 3-4 ticks, then retreat to allow an exit between breakeven and -2 ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. It continued to reverse for a total of 10 ticks in the next 2 bars, then pulled back for 6 ticks above the R1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways until Mario Draghi spoke at 0500.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

ECB Min Bid Rate Comments Off

May 252014

5/8/2014 ECB Minimum Bid Rate (0745 EDT)
Forecast: 0.25%
Actual: 0.25%
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION-NO FILL)
Started @ 1.3932 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3949 – 0745:08 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3937 – 0745:10 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 1.3959 – 0745:49 (1 min)
)))27 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.3938 – 0804 (19 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3912 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.3901 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3950 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 1.3962 (on the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The ECB decided to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 0.25% and took no further action. This resulted in a more decisive long spike that was not ideal for the Trap Trade, but still would have worked it played correctly. Your inner tier short entry would have filled right around the 20 sec mark if you did not cancel. Then it would have made a 2nd push higher as the :46 bar closed to see 9 ticks of heat. Then it backed off to hover between 1 and 5 ticks in the red for about 10 min before it fell further. In all previous reactions in the last 4 months, it has reversed immediately to the origin, so this was an anomaly. Be sure to cancel the outer tier and move the stop to 1.3960 and look to exit when it first reaches the 20 SMA. This would have yielded 6 ticks on the :57 bar after 12 min. It eventually fell to the major SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot 7 min later to allow a max of 10 ticks. Then it recovered to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways into the press conference.

6E 06-14 (1 Min) 5.13.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

May 262014

5/13/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 41.3
Actual: 33.1
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3762 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3748 – 0500:02 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3757 – 0500:26 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.3745 – 0501:43 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.3753 – 0504 (4 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3738 – 0514 (14 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3756 – 0524 (24 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3752 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.3745 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3772 (just above the HOD)/1.3780 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a large margin of 8.2 points. This caused a short move of 14 ticks initially in 2 sec that started on the 300 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 4 ticks to spare, then given about 4-5 ticks on the immediate reversal in the middle of the :01 bar. Then it fell to cross the S1 Pivot for another 3 ticks on the :02 bar. This may have filled your outer long entry if you did not exit earlier. Be careful with this situation as the deviation was very large, so the typical trend of reversing to the origin might not be assured. It reversed to the S1 Mid Pivot for 8 ticks in the next 3 bars to allow an exit with about 7 total ticks. Then it fell for a 2nd peak to the S2 Pivot 9 min later. The final reversal climbed 18 ticks in 10 min to reach the 50 SMA and allow the most ideal exit of about 13 ticks. If you were still in and waiting for it to potentially go higher, move the stop to 51 or 50 to lock in 3-5 ticks.

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