2/20/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 56.4
Actual: 54.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 56.5
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 53.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3705 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3680 – 0329 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3709 – 0345 (17 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.7 points below the forecast to disappoint with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 2.0 points above the forecast with a modest downward previous report revision to cause a healthy spike that was unsustainable due the conflicted results. This resulted in a 25 tick short move as the manufacturing reading dominated that started on the S2 Pivot and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3700 with 2 ticks of slippage, then a target of up to 19 ticks would filled instantly. After it fell to 1.3680, it retreated to hover in between 1.3685 and 1.3690 before retreating further 17 sec into the bar. This is a case where you have the S3 Mid Pivot at 1.3684 and conflicting news, so move the profit target to about 1.3687 if not filled already to exit with about 13 ticks. After the :29 bar, it continued to slowly pullback long for the next 16 min to the 50 SMA for a total of 29 ticks. After that it fell in a failed attempt at a 2nd peak for only 15 ticks, hitting a low as the EURO-zone readings came in disappointing.

4/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 54.2
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 53.7
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.5
Actual: 55.0
Previous Revision: -1.0 to 53.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3800
1st Peak @ 1.3816 – 0331 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.3808 – 0332 (2 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.3854 – 0438 (68 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 1.3842 – 0445 (75 min)
12 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.3 points above the forecast to impress with a negligible downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.5 points above the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision to cause a healthy long spike that crossed the PP Pivot, 50 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3810 with 7 ticks of slippage, then most likely your target would not have filled as it only climbed 6 more ticks. With the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA at 1.3813, that would have been a prudent area to exit for about 3-4 ticks. After a small reversal it started stepping higher, using the 13/20 SMAs as a floor until it climbed another 38 ticks in the next hour. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 7 min back to the R2 Pivot.

6/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 52.7
Actual: 52.4
Previous Revision: -0.6 to 52.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.8
Actual: 54.8
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 56.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3605
1st Peak @ 1.3594 – 0331 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3592 – 0334 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.3602 – 0350 (20 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.3 points below the forecast to with a moderate downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 1.0 points below the forecast with a moderate downward previous report revision to cause a small short spike of 11 ticks that eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3601 with no slippage, then seen it hover around the fill point for most of the bar before a push lower late in the :31 bar. A target at 1.3596 or 97 would have been prudent just below the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot for about 4-5 ticks. After a brief dip to 1.3592 on the :34 bar, it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 16 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

8/21/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 51.7
Actual: 52.0
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 52.4
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.5
Actual: 56.4
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 56.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3260
1st Peak @ 1.3274 – 0331:10 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.3270 – 0333 (3 min)
-4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3279 – 0338 (8 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.3272 – 0347 (17 min)
7 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 0.3 points above the forecast with a healthy downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 0.9 points above the forecast with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 14 ticks that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and rose to eclipse the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. We discouraged trading this report as the French report was conflicting, usually indicating the German report will be unsafe. This is the second unique case where that premise was false. If you had used JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.3265 with 1 tick of slippage on the initial burst, then slowly grab another 9 ticks. Look to exit on the PP Pivot with about 8 ticks. After a small reversal of 4 ticks, It rallied higher for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 9 min back to the PP Pivot. It traded sideways heading into the Eurozone report at 0400 which was surprisingly bearish.

10/23/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 51.8
Previous Revision: -0.4 to 49.9
Services PMI
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 54.8
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 55.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.2625
1st Peak @ 1.2652 – 0331:40 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.2644 – 0333 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.2659 – 0335 (5 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.2636 – 0342 (12 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 1.2651 – 0353 (23 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The manufacturing reading came in 1.2 points above the forecast with a mild downward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in nearly matching the forecast with a mild upward previous report revision. With most of the news differing little from the forecast, the bullish manufacturing reading drove the long reaction. It started on the 13 SMA and rose 22 ticks immediately as it crossed the 100/200 SMAs and hit the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.2634 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover in between the 100/200 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot for 6 sec. This would have been an ideal place to exit with 11 ticks with the strong resistance. After the hovering it backed off 10 ticks in 30 sec, then rebounded to snag another 5 ticks on the :32 bar. Then it reversed 8 ticks on the :33 bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 2 min later. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 7 min as it crossed the 100 SMA. After that it pulled back 15 ticks to the OOD and traded sideways as it headed into the release of the Eurozone report at the bottom of the hour.