2/16/2016 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.1
Actual: 1.0
INDECISIVE
Started @ 9164.0
1st Peak @ 9160.0 – 0500:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 9171.0 – 0500:22 (1 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 9114.0 – 0512 (12 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 9154.0 – 0524 (24 min)
80 ticks

Expected Fill: 9161.0 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: stopped at 9166.0 – 10 ticks loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Indecisive initially as the report was close to matching and it only fell 8 ticks then snapped back. Still, remember this report nearly always goes for a 2nd peak of about 60 ticks within 20 min. This case is no different as it used the resistance of the 20 SMA to drive it lower to the S1 Pivot in 11 min for 100 ticks.

3/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0600 EDT)
Forecast: 52.8
Actual: 46.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3911 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 1.3894 – 0600:09 (1 min)
-17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3900 – 0600:20 (1 min)
6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3888 – 0605 (5 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.3902 – 0612 (12 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.3913 – 0632 (32 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3901 (below the LOD) / 1.3892 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3921 (just above the PP Pivot/OOD) / 1.3928 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast by 6.2 points. This caused a short move of 17 ticks initially that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Pivot, then a reversal of 6 ticks before it slowly settled down for a 2nd peak of another 6 ticks as it crossed the S1 Pivot. This was a good setup of the Trap Trade and a good lesson. The inner long entry would have filled instantly then you would have been riding between 1-5 ticks of heat for most of the next 2 bars. Since this report always reverses to the origin, we advise waiting it out. The secondary push lower would have filled your outer long entry making your average position about 1.3896. With the origin at 1.3911, move your target down to be on the 200 SMA, and look for 15 ticks (30 total ticks). It took over 30 min, but it got there with the long delay attributed to the large offset.

5/13/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 41.3
Actual: 33.1
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3762 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3748 – 0500:02 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3757 – 0500:26 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.3745 – 0501:43 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.3753 – 0504 (4 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3738 – 0514 (14 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.3756 – 0524 (24 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3752 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.3745 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3772 (just above the HOD)/1.3780 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a large margin of 8.2 points. This caused a short move of 14 ticks initially in 2 sec that started on the 300 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. This would have filled the inner long entry with about 4 ticks to spare, then given about 4-5 ticks on the immediate reversal in the middle of the :01 bar. Then it fell to cross the S1 Pivot for another 3 ticks on the :02 bar. This may have filled your outer long entry if you did not exit earlier. Be careful with this situation as the deviation was very large, so the typical trend of reversing to the origin might not be assured. It reversed to the S1 Mid Pivot for 8 ticks in the next 3 bars to allow an exit with about 7 total ticks. Then it fell for a 2nd peak to the S2 Pivot 9 min later. The final reversal climbed 18 ticks in 10 min to reach the 50 SMA and allow the most ideal exit of about 13 ticks. If you were still in and waiting for it to potentially go higher, move the stop to 51 or 50 to lock in 3-5 ticks.

7/15/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 28.9
Actual: 27.1
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3608 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3597 – 0500:28 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3602 – 0501:10 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3590 – 0513 (13 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.3602 – 0554 (54 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3599 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 1.3589 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3617 (just above the 200 SMA)/1.3624 (just above the PP Pivot / OOD)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of only 1.8 points. This caused a short move of 11 ticks initially in 28 sec that started on the 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot. This would have filled the inner long entry with 2 ticks to spare. It appears the British CPI from 30 min earlier was still causing a bearish sentiment to weigh on the market as the reaction was quite strong for a narrow offset, and did not want to reverse more than a few ticks. Look to exit quickly in this situation with 2-3 ticks of profit as it hovered near 1.3601 for over 3 min. After that, it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot in the next 12 min. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 41 min as it slowly climbed to the S2 Pivot.

9/16/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EDT)
Forecast: 5.2
Actual: 6.9
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.2954 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.2950 – 0500:10 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.2956 – 0500:17 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.2947 – 0502 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 1.2957 – 0532 (32 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.2945 (in between the PP Pivot and 200 SMA) / 1.2938 (between the PP/ S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 1.2964 (on the R1 Pivot)/1.2972 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a small margin of only 1.7 points. This caused a dull short move of 4 ticks initially in 10 sec that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then retreated 6 ticks a few sec later. This would have been well short of the inner long tier, so cancel the order. We see the quick reversal would have been ideal if only larger. After the initial reaction, it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, then reversed for 10 ticks in the next 30 min. After that it kept slowly climbing due to other factors.