-090111.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.7
Actual:50.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 89.41
1st Peak @ 90.13 – 0404 (4 min)
72 ticks
Reversal to 89.44 – 0415 (15 min)
69 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market was stuck flirting with the 200 SMA around the release causing a premature spike up to the 200 SMA, then the tail on the 0401 candle before the large spike upward. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long on the 0400 candle, and absorbed the heat of 10-11 ticks on the 0401 candle before it spiked up. The first candle rose 62 ticks, so it is worth waiting to see what the follow on candles do. With the 2 long wicks on the 0402-0403 candles, I would close out around 90.00.