6A 03 12 (1 Min) 10.25.11

10/25/2011 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0263
1st Peak@ 1.0195 – 1431 (1 min)
68 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0227 – 1435 (5 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0190 – 1535 (65 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 1.0219 – 1610 (100 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report matched expectations. This resulted in a decisive drop, but the particulars were abnormal for this report. This caused a healthy but smaller than normal spike, relatively large reversal, then a delayed and smaller 2nd peak nearly 1 hr later. Spike crossed all three SMAs on the down spike, but very close to the origin. I would wait for the 2nd peak at about 11 min as usual, but the reversal at 1434 was larger than normal. The double bottom at 1447 validates the wait for the 2nd peak on this report. After seeing the double bottom, I would trade the reversal and get out when it hit the 50 SMA at about 1.0215.