1/26/2016 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.6982
1st Peak@ 0.7023 – 1931:38 (2 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7015 – 1935 (5 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7026 – 1942 (12 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.7016 – 1949 (19 min)
10 ticks

Double Top @ 0.7026 – 2007 (37 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7003 – 2035 (65 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6995 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7022 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7020 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Moderately bullish report, be patient and wait for the :32 bar to exit and expect it to eclipse the R1 Pivot. It achieved a minor 2nd peak, then double top before a bigger reversal.

7/21/2015 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.7%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7397
Whipsaw between 0.7416 and 0.7380 – 2130:04 (1 min)
36 tick span

1st peak @ 0.7416 – 2133 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.7369 – 2213 (43 min)
47 ticks

Notes: This report mildly fell short of the forecast with the CPI narrowly missing the forecast by 0.1% and the Trimmed Mean CPI matching the forecast. We saw a safe setup but a whipsaw spanning 35 ticks in the first 4 sec after the release. This would have resulted in 18 tick loss as the opposite bracket would have still been on the chart to serve as the stop loss at 14 ticks then it would have slipped about 4 ticks. After that it climbed for stable peak of 19 ticks in 3 min on the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 47 ticks in 40 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

1/27/2015 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7887
1st Peak@ 0.7970 – 1930:50 (1 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 0.7949 – 1932 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7979 – 1937 (7 min)
92 ticks

Reversal to 0.7959 – 1941 (11 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7984 – 2005 (35 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 0.7946 – 2033 (63 min)
38 ticks

Notes: This report was mildly conflicting with the CPI narrowly missing the forecast by 0.1% and the Trimmed Mean CPI exceeding the forecast by 0.2% (the exact opposite of last report). We saw premature movement in the waning seconds again. This would have worked in your favor as you would have a no slippage fill long at 0.7894 then ridden the early heat by 1 tick to be safe for the big spike that followed. As it ascended quickly to the R2 Mid Pivot for about 70 ticks, look to exit with 60+ ticks. It followed the Trimmed mean figure in this case to step higher with small reversals. It mostly traded between the R2 Mid Pivot and R2 Pivot until the final peak briefly broke above the R2 Pivot 35 min after the report, then the reversal fell 38 ticks in 28 min to the R1 Pivot.

7/22/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9351
1st Peak@ 0.9396 – 2130:13 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.9380 – 2130:41 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9404 – 2141 (11 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.9395 – 2153 (23 min)
9 ticks

Notes: This report was a match across the board but still brought the bulls off of the bench for large long spike. This resulted in a quick large long spike that rose for 45 ticks in 13 sec, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would have filled long at about 0.9360 with 2 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 0.9392 with 32 ticks, near the R2 Mid Pivot when it hovered for about 8 sec. After the peak, it backed off by 16 ticks to the R1 Pivot late in the :31 bar. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in the next 10 min. As the volume and volatility calmed down, we saw only a small reversal of 9 ticks while it remained near 0.9400.

1/21/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.8%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.8757
1st Peak@ 0.8822 – 2032 (2 min)
65 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8838 – 1949 (19 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 0.8819 – 2037 (67 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive, exceeding the forecast on both parts of the report by 0.3%. This resulted in a quick spike that ratcheted upward methodically for 65 ticks culminating on the :32 bar. The initial burst crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the R1 Mid Pivot before retreating briefly. Then it continued rallying with minimal abatement to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would have filled long at 0.8774 with 10 ticks of slippage. Keep an eye on the range chart and wait until you see the ratcheting turn into hovering. The first stretch of hovering was between about 5 and 20 sec in between the R2 Mid Pivot and the R3 Pivot. You could have moved your stop up to about 0.8795 and place a target at about 0.8808 or let it ride with the stop at 0.8795, then move it up to about 0.8804 later in the bar when it hovered higher. There would have been a minimum of 25 ticks able to be captured with ease, and as many as 45 ticks. After the peak, it hovered below the R3 Mid Pivot for about 15 min, then climbed for the final peak of 16 more ticks. After a double top about 15 min later, it reversed for 19 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and R3 Mid Pivot about 45 min later.