Feb 082014

6A 03-14 (1 Min)  1_21_2014 6A 03-14 (1 Range)  1_21_2014

1/21/2014 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.8%
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 0.8757
1st Peak@ 0.8822 – 2032 (2 min)
65 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8838 – 1949 (19 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 0.8819 – 2037 (67 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive, exceeding the forecast on both parts of the report by 0.3%. This resulted in a quick spike that ratcheted upward methodically for 65 ticks culminating on the :32 bar. The initial burst crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the R1 Mid Pivot before retreating briefly. Then it continued rallying with minimal abatement to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and the recommended limit order, you would have filled long at 0.8774 with 10 ticks of slippage. Keep an eye on the range chart and wait until you see the ratcheting turn into hovering. The first stretch of hovering was between about 5 and 20 sec in between the R2 Mid Pivot and the R3 Pivot. You could have moved your stop up to about 0.8795 and place a target at about 0.8808 or let it ride with the stop at 0.8795, then move it up to about 0.8804 later in the bar when it hovered higher. There would have been a minimum of 25 ticks able to be captured with ease, and as many as 45 ticks. After the peak, it hovered below the R3 Mid Pivot for about 15 min, then climbed for the final peak of 16 more ticks. After a double top about 15 min later, it reversed for 19 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and R3 Mid Pivot about 45 min later.