3/20/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.99 (1400)
1st Peak @ 93.34 – 1403 (3 min)
35 ticks
Reversal to 93.03 – 1411 (11 min)
31 ticks
2nd Peak @ 93.60 – 1425 (25 min)
61 ticks
Reversal to 93.43 – 1500 (60 min)
17 ticks
Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused both the CL to trend long and the DX to short initially, then recover and short again. We saw a 35 tick spike over 3 bars, then a reversal of 31 ticks in the next 7 min. Then it geared up for a larger 2nd peak of 61 ticks, riding the 13 SMA as support and peaking 5 min before the pit close. After seeing the news and the DX reaction in the first few minutes, it would be safe to buy the dips, when it dropped below the 50 SMA and hit the PP Pivot at 93.07 on the :10 – :11 bars. Stay in until you have a bar settle below the 20 with the 13 crossing the 20 and/or the MACD cross. Both happened at about 1445, giving you an exit with at least 40 ticks of profit. As the pit closed, the final reversal was small and slow developing for only 17 ticks in 35 min.