FED Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.6.2016

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 022016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_6_2016

4/6/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 165’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))No move – 1401 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
1st Peak @ 165’12 – 1403 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 165’08 – 1405 (5 min)
3 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’01 (just above the LOD) / 164’29 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 165’10 (just above the 200 SMA) / 165’14 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Dull move so cancel after 1 min.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 042016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016 ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 161’05
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’23 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’07 – 1400:05 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Pullback to 161’24 – 1400:12 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’12 – 1400:51 (1 min)
)))12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 162’07 – 1409 (9 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 161’02 – 1446 (46 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 161’27 – 1516 (76 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 160’30 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots) / 160’22 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 161’13 (on the 200 SMA) / 161’21 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 161’13 and 161’21 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 161’07 – 16 ticks (if quick) or 161’12 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’07 (on the 50 SMA) – move higher

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled for an average short position of 161’17. Then it stabbed lower offering 16 total ticks for about 3 sec, pulled back to the peak and reversed again to almost the same area offering 8-10 total ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 16 more ticks in 8 min to the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot before a 37 ticks reversal that stepped down to the S1 Pivot / LOD.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Feb 272016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 164’10
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’15 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’09 – 1401:44 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Pullback to 164’16 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’31 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 164’23 – 1457 (57 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’06 (just below the 200 SMA) / 164’01 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 164’14 or 15 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 164’19 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 164’14 or 164’15 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 164’10 – 4 to 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 164’09 (just above the 50 /100 SMAs) and 164’06 (just under the 200 SMA)

Notes: Nice setup for about 5 ticks on the initial reversal. Then it continued to cycle with the swings increasing in span for the next hour. As it bottomed on the S3 Mid Pivot and changed direction with the LOD below, it would have been safe to enter long.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.19.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/19/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’05
1st Peak @ 133’10 – 1401 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 1403 (3 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Now that the FED is a few meetings into scaling back QE3, and the mystery is gone, the reactions are getting smaller. The minutes basically stated that we had both good and bad economic news, but nothing to cause the FED to deviate from the pace. This stance seems to be fairly rigid with little events able to meet the threshold of a deviation. This caused the bonds to rally only 5 ticks, as the minutes were unsurprising, followed by a 13 tick reversal that happened quickly. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’07 with no slippage 11 sec into the :01 bar. On non statistical news like this, that is normal. It would have popped up and hit the PP Pivot / 50 SMA after 19 sec, then started to retreat. If you were quick, you would have been able to exit with 1-2 ticks after 5 sec. Otherwise, look to move the stop up to 2 ticks and get out there. After the peak, it fell 13 ticks from the back end of the :01 bar to the :03 bar, crossing the S1 Pivot. After that, it pulled back to the S1 Mid Pivot, then fell to trade sideways on the S1 Pivot. Due to the changing trend and low probability of the FED to rock the boat, we will shift this and the FOMC statement reports to the Trap Trade approach in the near short term.

CL 04-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

Mar 262014

3/5/2014 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 101.58
Movement between 1401 and 1404 bars spanned 101.55 – 101.60.

1st Peak @ 101.29 – 1406 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 101.42 – 1409 (9 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.22 – 1415 (15 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 101.54 – 1425 (25 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of January to early February. Eight Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest declines were reported for the Midwest and Northeast regions being attributed to the cold weather. The DX had minimal movement, and mostly chopped sideways. This resulted in only a narrow range of 5 ticks in the first 4 bars, so cancel the order with JOBB after 2 min. It eventually caused a reaction on the :05 bar for a 1st peak of 29 ticks in 2 min. After that it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 3 min before achieving a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the next 10 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.19.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/19/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 132’16
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 132’00 – 1400:29 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Reversal to 132’14 – 1402:54 (3 min)
14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 131’29 – 1418 (18 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 132’07 – 1444 (44 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’08 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 132’24 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $55B a month, saying they will continue to monitor the economy and labor sectors while also saying they do not want to be seen as reacting to every gyration in financial markets. The surprise from new Chmn Yellen was that they would look at raising rates in early 2015 when tapering was finished and no longer be bound by the 6% unemployment metric they had previously promised to use. This caused a larger than expected short move that would have been a great trap trade with larger tiers. Your inner long entry would have filled, then after a few sec been stopped as it pushed lower. In hindsight a 2-tier approach with the outer tier at 14 ticks would have been ideal. That would have filled and then with an average entry of 132’05, allowing about 8 ticks to be captured on the reversal on the :03 bar. After chopping for about 10 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, eclipsing the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 26 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 012014

4/9/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 133’07
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’15 – 1400:52 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’10 – 1403:29 (4 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 133’17 – 1405 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’07 – 1409 (9 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 133’22 – 1428 (28 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1448 (48 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’12 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 133’16 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 132’31 (in between the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots)

Notes: We shifted this report to the Trap Trade now that the FED is routinely driven into the scaling back QE3, and the mystery is gone, with the reactions getting smaller and shortly sustained. The minutes expounded on the surprise longterm sentiment from the FED meeting that rate hikes would be considered in early 2015 after QE was phased out and triggers would not be as rigid. This caused the bonds to rally for 8 ticks, in a slightly larger move, followed by a 5 tick reversal that took 3.5 min to materialize. This would have filled your inner short entry at 133’12 then hovered between 3 ticks of heat and 1 tick of profit for about 4 min. Then the 2nd peak push to the PP would have filled the outer tier. After this move the stop to about 133’18 above the PP Pivot and wait for a drop. An exit at 133’08 would have yielded 12 total ticks. After the reversal, it traded sideways then rallied for a final peak of 15 ticks in the next 20 min to the HOD. Then it fell 12 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs 20 min later.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

May 062014

4/16/2014 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 103.64
1st Peak @ 103.54 – 1403 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 103.71 – 1408 (8 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 103.56 – 1419 (19 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 103.85 – 1426 (26 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 103.64 – 1435 (35 min)
21 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of early February to mid March. Eight Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest declines were reported for the Midwest and Northeast regions being attributed to the cold weather. The DX had minimal movement as it climbed a small amount. This caused the CL to fall for 10 ticks in 3 bars. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 103.59 with no slippage, then allowed 2-4 ticks as it crossed the 200/50 SMAs and PP Pivot. After that it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 5 min, then fell 15 ticks in 11 min. Then it continued to swing as the pit closed.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 192014

4/30/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 134’24
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’16 – 1400:13 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’28 – 1402:07 (3 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Pullback to 134’20 – 1411 (11 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 134’31 – 1456 (56 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’17 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 134’08 (just above the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 134’31 (just above the HOD) / 135’07 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $45B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. This caused a short move of 8 ticks and quick retreat as is typical. Your inner long entry would have filled, then allowed for an exit around 134’24 with 7 ticks in the middle of the SMAs later in the bar. If you were patient and less conservative, an exit at 134’27 just after the open of the :03 bar would have worked for about 10 ticks. After that it pulled back for 8 ticks to the R1 Pivot in 8 min. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 45 min to the HOD.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.21.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jun 012014

5/21/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 136’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’23 – 1400:04 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’16 – 1400:55 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 136’10 – 1405 (5 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’25 – 1437 (37 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’19 – 1508 (68 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’13 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 136’10 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’23 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 136’26 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: The minutes offered very little surprise to essentially say that the tapering of QE3 would continue on pace. This caused the bonds to rally for 5 ticks, then quickly retreat to the origin. This would have filled your inner short entry at 136’23 then fallen quickly to give about 5-6 ticks of profit after only a minute. Then the continued reversal would have yielded another 6 ticks in the next 4 min. After that it climbed for 15 ticks for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks that nearly reached the S1 Pivot. Then the final reversal fell 6 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot after 30 min.

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