2/17/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 164’10
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’15 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’09 – 1401:44 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Pullback to 164’16 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’31 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 164’23 – 1457 (57 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’06 (just below the 200 SMA) / 164’01 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 164’14 or 15 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 164’19 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 164’14 or 164’15 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 164’10 – 4 to 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 164’09 (just above the 50 /100 SMAs) and 164’06 (just under the 200 SMA)

Notes: Nice setup for about 5 ticks on the initial reversal. Then it continued to cycle with the swings increasing in span for the next hour. As it bottomed on the S3 Mid Pivot and changed direction with the LOD below, it would have been safe to enter long.

4/9/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 133’07
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’15 – 1400:52 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’10 – 1403:29 (4 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 133’17 – 1405 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’07 – 1409 (9 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 133’22 – 1428 (28 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1448 (48 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’12 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 133’16 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 132’31 (in between the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots)

Notes: We shifted this report to the Trap Trade now that the FED is routinely driven into the scaling back QE3, and the mystery is gone, with the reactions getting smaller and shortly sustained. The minutes expounded on the surprise longterm sentiment from the FED meeting that rate hikes would be considered in early 2015 after QE was phased out and triggers would not be as rigid. This caused the bonds to rally for 8 ticks, in a slightly larger move, followed by a 5 tick reversal that took 3.5 min to materialize. This would have filled your inner short entry at 133’12 then hovered between 3 ticks of heat and 1 tick of profit for about 4 min. Then the 2nd peak push to the PP would have filled the outer tier. After this move the stop to about 133’18 above the PP Pivot and wait for a drop. An exit at 133’08 would have yielded 12 total ticks. After the reversal, it traded sideways then rallied for a final peak of 15 ticks in the next 20 min to the HOD. Then it fell 12 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs 20 min later.

7/9/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 136’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’09 – 1400:27 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’15 – 1402:10 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 136’09 – 1405 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 136’31 – 1435 (35 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’07 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD) / 136’03 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’17 (on the OOD / 200 SMA) / 136’21 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes offered very little surprise to essentially say that the tapering of QE3 would continue on pace. This caused a muted reaction as the bonds only fell 3 ticks, then reversed about 2 min later. The behavior was typical, just smaller movement. This would have missed your inner long entry by 2 ticks, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it fell for a double bottom to the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 22 ticks in the next 30 min as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD.

11/19/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 141’07 (shift to 141’09)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’14 – 1400:06 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’05 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 141’22 – 1418 (18 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 141’02 – 1446 (46 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 141’04 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 141’00 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 141’13 (on the S1 Pivot) / 141’17 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: With tapering complete, the minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy by keeping interest rates low and maintain patience to raise them. This caused a quick long spike of 5 ticks to the S1 Pivot in 6 sec that quickly retreated and fell 9 ticks in 23 sec to the S2 Pivot. The initial anchor point of 141’07 would have shifted 2 ticks higher as the :00 bar was expiring, so bias your orders slightly higher. This would have filled the inner short tier at 141’13 then fallen and hovered at 141’06 to allow 7 ticks to be captured easily. After that it ascended for a final peak of 8 more ticks after 17 more min to the PP Pivot. Then it reversed to cross the S2 Pivot and nearly reach the LOD in the next 28 min.

2/18/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 147’28)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 144’22 – 1400:15 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’15 – 1400:56 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 145’07 – 1437 (37 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 144’17 – 1548 (108 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’03 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 144’00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 144’13 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 144’17 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy while taking a tolerant approach to risk assets and in no hurry to evaluate economic growth as a precursor for a rate hike. This caused a quick long spike of 14 ticks in 15 sec as it climbed to eclipse the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. This would have filled both short entries then the stop to the tick at 144’22 for a 14 tick loss. This was unfortunate as it reversed 7 ticks in the next few sec to allow an exit with 2-4 ticks loss had the stop been 1 tick larger. Still the trend of the small moves and reversals in the season of tapering easing is now over. It continued to rally after the reversal for another 17 ticks to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot in 36 min before reversing 22 ticks in 71 min to the 200 SMA.