12/11/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 21.0K
Previous Revision: -1.8K to -0.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9047
1st Peak @ 0.9089 – 1930 (0 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.9021 – 2000 (30 min)
68 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created by 10.7K while the unemployment rate remain unchanged, with a minimal downward revision to the previous report caused an early long (initially choppy) but eventually stable spike of 42 ticks peaked on the :30 bar and left 17 ticks on the wick of the :31 bar naked. It started at 19:29:55 (5 sec early) and crossed the PP Pivot and then swung between the top and the origin with a span of over 40 ticks. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with the premature move, but if you did not, the strategy would have been unable to set up and given you errors. After about 7 sec into the :31 bar, it settled down and established a peak at about 0.9080, then began a slow developing reversal, crossing all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, and S1 Mid Pivot for 68 ticks in 30 min. After that, it continued to step lower and pullback a few ticks while it trended lower.

10/9/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 9.1K
Previous Revision: +0.6K to -10.2K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9409
1st Peak @ 0.9375 – 2031 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.9434 – 2031 (1 min)
-59 ticks

Pullback to 0.9385 – 2113 (43 min)
49 ticks

Extended Pullback to 0.9352 – 2304 (154 min)
82 ticks

Notes: Mixed report fell moderately short of the forecast on jobs created by 6K while the unemployment rate improved by 0.2%. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that spiked short first on the lackluster jobs, then rebounded long on the rate improvement. It started sitting on all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist near the origin and fell to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then after 3 sec, it reversed long for 59 ticks to reach the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9388 with about 5 ticks of slippage. After chopping with 15 tick swings around your fill point, it would have filled your stop loss at about 0.9406 with 3 ticks of slippage for an 18 tick loss. After several solid reports through the summer, we got a bad apple, but it had cause for misbehavior. After the :31 bar, it sustained the long spike, then slowly pulled back for 49 ticks in 43 min, then another 33 ticks in the next 2 hours.

8/7/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 6.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -10.2K
Previous Revision: -1.0K to 9.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8997
1st Peak @ 0.8948 – 2131 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.8998 – 2246 (76 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Bipolar report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created offset by the unemployment rate falling by 0.1%, with a small downward revision to the previous report caused a choppy and unsustainable spike of 49 ticks. It crossed the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, then extended the LOD. After chopping between 0.8995 and 0.8948 for the early part of the :31 bar, it eventually rallied up to 0.9000 then settled at 0.8982 as the bar expired, leaving more than 30 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.8975 with 12-14 ticks of slippage. Depending upon your settings, you could have taken up to 25 ticks of profit or lost 15 on a stop loss. Most of us had a breakeven fill for a negligible loss or eked out 10 or less ticks of profit with a conservative target. This is a case where a conservative approach would serve you well on a riskier report. After the :31 bar, it bobbed lower, but could not approach the PP Pivot again, then it began a long slow reversal that saw resistance at the OOD, then the 200/100 SMAs, reclaiming 50 ticks in about an hour, but the bulk of it was retraced on the :31 bar.