7/10/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 10.3K
Previous Revision: -1.8K to -0.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9177
1st Peak @ 0.9233 – 2131 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 0.9183 – 2140 (10 min)
50 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9249 – 2307 (97 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 0.9220 – 2331 (121 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate increasing by 0.1%, offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous report caused a noisy, but safe spike of 56 ticks. It crossed the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot, went all the way up to 0.9233, then retreated, leaving 37 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.9189 with 4 ticks of slippage. A 40 tick or less profit target would have filled easily on the spike as it spent about 5 sec hovering near the top of the bar before falling. After the :31 bar, it chopped around the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA for about 40 min before gearing up for a slow developing 2nd peak that achieved another 16 ticks above the initial peak over 90 min after the report. Then it reversed for 29 ticks in about 25 min back to the 100 SMA.

5/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 11.5K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 50.1K
Previous Revision: +5.0K to -31.1K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0147
1st Peak @ 1.0135 – 2130 (0 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0265 – 2131 (1 min)
130 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that greatly exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1%, and a moderate upward revision to the previous report caused another manipulated indecisive scenario at the onset. Upon seeing the volatility and wild swings about 18 sec before the :30 bar expired, disable the JOBB strategy via the control center tab. If you let it play out, you would have been filled short and stopped long with about a 22 tick loss including 7 ticks of slippage. The premature volatility is unsettling but a trigger to easily back out. The long move was true, but the additional 50 tick spike long about 17 sec into the :31 bar and crash 10 sec later is also cause for concern. After the wild :31 bar, the price action traded in a narrow range mostly below the R3 Mid Pivot. With 2 erratic reports in a row, this report is no longer safe and reliable.

12/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 0.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 13.9K
Previous Revision: -0.5K to 10.2K
Rate Forecast: 5.5%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0440
1st Peak @ 1.0470 – 1431 (1 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0474 – 1442 (12 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.0459 – 1456 (26 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate improving by 0.3%, and a small downward revision to the previous report caused a healthy long spike of 30 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0452 with 5 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it pop up to 1.0470, then retreat and hover between 1.0457 and 1.0466. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin, and the R1 Pivot at the top of the spike. In the following 11 min, it tried to punch through the R1 Pivot and eventually succeeded for 4 more ticks. I placed a sell limit 1 tick higher than the 1st peak and filled with a 19 tick profit. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 15 ticks in 14 min. Then it was stuck to the 50 SMA for the next hour and traded sideways.