9/3/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0223
1st Peak @ 1.0243 – 1832 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0261 – 1851 (21 min)
38 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0273 – 1944 (74 min)
50 ticks

Reverse to 1.0248 – 2127 (177 min)
25 ticks

Notes: With economic growth softening but still positive in the US, Europe, and China, the RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged. This matched most traders’ expectations and was the more likely outcome instead of another rate cut. With the market trading mostly sideways before the news, it was prime to react bullishly to the outcome. The market spiked long 18 ticks in 2 min, then chopped around a bit before a reaching a 2nd of peak of 36 ticks at 21 min after the release. Then it achieved another 12 ticks for 48 total at 74 min after the report broke. With JOBB you would have filled with minimal slippage at 1.0232. Then with patience, close out with a handful of ticks on the :32 bar. Since it only spiked for 8 ticks on the :31 bar, this is not really an HFT, but a tamer initial spike that will pan out slowly and deliberately. Decisive and small is better than choppy and chaotic. After the 2nd peak at 21 min, the volume dried up considerably as is took nearly an hour to achieve 12 more ticks. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs at the origin, used the S1 Pivot as support and crossed the PP Pivot on its ascent. The 2nd peak eclipsed the R1 Pivot, and the Final Peak was able to punch through the R2 Pivot. The reversal fell for 25 ticks finding support just below the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot.

6/4/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9720
1st Peak @ 0.9769 – 1831 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.9748 – 1831 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9779 – 1833 (3 min)
59 ticks

Reverse to 0.9744 – 1841 (11 min)
35 ticks

Notes: With the Economic crisis in the Euro-zone and the poor US Job #s out the previous week, the RBA felt compelled to cut rates another 25 BP. This was the more likely scenario and the midpoint of leaving rates unchanged or cutting another 50 BP. The market shorted about 30 ticks on the :30 bar prior to the report. JOBB would have triggered when the price was at 0.9720 and filled long around 0.9735 with slippage. Then you would have the opportunity to close out with about 20 ticks minimum. The up spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and teetered on the R2 Pivot. Then it went for a 2nd peak 10 ticks higher before reversing for 35 ticks back to the cluster of SMAs. Then the volume and volatility calmed down to settle into a slow rise pattern.

4/30/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.00%
Actual: 3.75%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (INDECISIVE initially)
Started @ 1.0375
1st Candle: Peak @ 1.0306 / Retrace to 1.0389 / Peak @ 1.0274 / Settle @ 1.0307 – 1831 (1 min)
-69 ticks / 14 ticks / – 101 ticks / -68 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0268 – 1921 (51 min)
107 ticks

Reverse to 1.0290 – 2000 (90 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the disappointing PPI and CPI #s from the previous week, most investors were anticipating a 25 BP rate cut (or small chance of no change). Instead the RBA surprised everyone and cut rates by 50 BP. Since the market had priced in a 25 BP rate cut in the hours prior to the report, it spiked long prematurely due to short covering. Then the 50 BP cut caused immediate volatility and an eventually dove to the downside for 101 ticks. Unfortunately with JOBB, the oscillations in the early seconds would have stopped you out. The up spike crossed many Pivots to peak just above the R2 Pivot, and the downspike crossed all major SMAs near the origin, penetrated the S3 Pivot to bottom out well below it. After the bottom of 1.0274 was hit, it retraced back to about 1.0317 at the S2 Pivot, then headed down to a 2nd Peak at 1.0268 50 minutes later. The reversal was relatively small at 22 ticks in nearly 40 minutes after the 2nd peak.