9/2/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.2%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0258
1st Peak @ 1.0226 – 1532 (2 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.0241 – 1603 (33 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast, with a moderate upward previous report revision. This caused a 2 bar short spike of 32 ticks that was able to sustain its drop. The spike crossed the 100 and 50 SMAs near the origin and found support just below the S2 Pivot. The reversal only recovered 15 ticks in about 30 min. As this report broke on a Sunday evening, it was not recommended for trading. The light volume of trading is evident in the bar behavior before and after the report. If you had used JOBB, you would have likely seen an excess of 10 ticks of slippage and come away with only a few ticks as it fell quickly.

7/3/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.1%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0226
1st Peak @ 1.0255 – 1531 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.0234 – 1533 (3 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a large upward previous report revision. This caused a rapid long spike that would have filled your long JOBB entry at about 1.0238. With all the major SMAs lower than the price action, the only barrier to cross was the R1 Pivot about 1/3 of the way up the path of the :31 bar. It hit its apex at the R2 Pivot at 1.0255 only 4 sec into the :31 bar then retreated and hovered a few ticks lower until 10 sec then fell more. Given the bounce off of the R2 Pivot and inability to hold that level, closing out around 1.0251 would be a good play. The reversal came back to just above the R1 level at the :33 bar. Then it chopped sideways at the R1 Pivot for about 30 min before slowly dropping again.

5/6/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 0.9989
1st Peak @ 1.0037 – 1531 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.9999 – 1532 (2 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a rapid and unsustainable long spike. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and found resistance at the S1 Pivot. As this report broke on a Sunday evening, it was not recommended for trading. The light volume of trading is evident in the length of the spike and the subsequent fall along with the bar behavior before and after the report. If you had used JOBB, you would have likely seen an excess of 10 ticks of slippage and come away with only a few ticks as it fell quickly.

2/28/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0765
1st Peak @ 1.0790 – 1434 / 1437 (4/7 min)
25 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 1.0771 – 1446 (16 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast, with no previous report revision. Initially a dull reaction that ended up yielding a slow developing 25 ticks. This is such a large reacting report that a matching report that is positive still delivers 25 ticks. Even with the slow reaction, it had to cross the 50 SMA, but had little trouble doing so. Reversal just barely crossed the 50 SMA for 19 ticks.

1/8/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0099
1st Peak @ 1.0072 – 1431 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.0088 – 1446 (16 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of forecast, with no previous report revision, but report broke on a Sunday severely limiting the reaction in volume and magnitude. Do not trade this report due to the Sunday release. No SMAs were crossed, but only 27 ticks were achieved on the spike and 16 on the reversal.