Monthly Trade Balance | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.75B
Actual: -0.79B
Previous Revision: +0.28B to -1.08B
BLDG Permits
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 2.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8710 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8730 – 2130:16 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8717 – 2131:58 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8749 – 2157 (27 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.8732 – 2215 (45 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8695 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.8725 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast while the concurrent BLDG Permits report exceeded the forecast by a moderate margin to cause a long spike of 20 ticks initially that started on the 13 SMA and rose to the R2 Pivot. This would have filled your short entry with about 5 ticks to spare, then reversed to allow about 7 ticks to be captured after almost 2 min on the :32 bar as it returned to the R2 Mid Pivot. It chopped sideways near the R2 Mid Pivot for a few min before engaging in a long term rally over the next 1.5 -2 hrs. While the BLDG Permits was the catalyst for the rally, other market factors were the cause of the sustained rally.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.3.2014

Nov 232014

11/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.78B
Actual: -2.26B
Previous Revision: -0.22B to -1.01B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8662 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8684 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8672 – 1930:05 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8685 – 1931:03 (2 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8663 – 1932:13 (3 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.8620 – 1940 (10 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 0.8677 – 2031 (61 min)
57 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8643 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8680 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report strongly exceeded the forecast with no previous revision while the Trade Balance report fell short of the forecast by nearly 0.5B with a moderate downward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 3 sec that rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Pivot then retreat. This would have filled the short entry with about 4 ticks to spare, then quickly backed off and hovered for 6 sec allowing about 6 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back to hover between the fill point and the R1 Pivot and reversed again as the :32 bar started for 22 ticks into the :33 bar. This would have allowed up to 15 ticks to be captured in the vicinity of the SMAs and OOD. After that it continued to make a dramatic nose dive for another 43 ticks in the next 7 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 57 ticks in 51 min to the R1 Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.3%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.85B
Actual: -1.32B
Previous Revision: +0.02B to -2.24B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8399 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8417 – 1930:02 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8399 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8416 – 1930:25 (2 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8410 – 1936 (6 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8425 – 1940 (10 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8394 – 2041 (71 min)
31 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8381 (in between the OOD and LOD / S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8417 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report exceeded the forecast with a small upward previous report revision while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by about 0.5B with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 18 ticks in 2 sec that rose to cross the PP and R1 Mid Pivots, then retreat. This would filled the short entry depending on your placement if at 0.8417 or lower, then quickly backed off and chopped around 0.8405 for 10 sec allowing about 12 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back to hover around the R1 Mid Pivot for the remainder of the bar. After that it reversed for 6 ticks in 4 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot. Then it trickled lower for 31 ticks in the next hour to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.6.2016

Building Approvals, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 142016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_6_2016

1/6/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.98B
Actual: -2.91B
Previous Revision: +0.06B to -3.25B
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7060
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7049 – 1930:24 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7055 – 1930:08 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7050 – 1931:02 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7055 – 1935 (5 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7046 – 1947 (17 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.7061 – 2005 (35 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7052 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7045 (in between the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7067 (just above the HOD) / 0.7076 (just under the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7052 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7054 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7059 (just above the 50 SMA) – move lower

Notes: Near match on the Trade balance, but a huge miss on the concurrent Building Approvals to cause a decisive short spike. Still would have allowed an exit around breakeven on the positive side.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.5.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/5/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -1.59B
Actual: -0.93B
Previous Revision: +0.44B to -0.88B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (NEAR BREAKEVEN EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8048 – shift to 0.8051 (on the 200/100 SMAs)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8073 – 1930:31 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8061 – 1930:47 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8078 – 1933 (3 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.8062 – 1949 (19 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8083 – 2000 (30 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.8067 – 2031 (61 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8043 (on the LOD) / 0.8036 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8059 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8067 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a large upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 31 sec that crossed the R1 Pivot and nearly reached the R2 Mid Pivot while extending the HOD. As the price drifted upward about 3 ticks in the 45 sec before the report, bias your brackets higher. This would have filled both of your short entries for an average entry of 0.8063 then gone up to 10 ticks in the red from the combined position before reversing to allow 1-2 ticks of profit near the area of the HOD position. Look to exit there. After that it stepped higher for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 2 min before reversing 16 ticks in 16 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 11 min before reversing 16 ticks in 31 min.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 232015

3/4/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -0.94B
Actual: -0.98B
Previous Revision: -0.06B to -0.50B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7815 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7809 – 1930:13 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7821 – 1934 (4 min)
)))12 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7797 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.7835 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: In an extremely rare occurrence, both the Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports matched the forecasts. This caused the expected dull reaction with only a 6 tick short move in 13 sec that started on the clustered major SMAs and fell to touch the OOD/LOD, then reverse. This would have fallen well short of the long entry, so cancel the order. It reversed 12 ticks in 3 min then continued to trade sideways as it shrugged off the non event.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.1.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Apr 122015

4/1/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.28B
Actual: -1.26B
Previous Revision: -0.02B to -1.00B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7547
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7554 – 2030:56 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7546 – 2032:50 (3 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7557 – 2045 (15 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7549 – 2050 (20 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7540 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.7532 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7555 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7562 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a negligible downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull long spike of 7 ticks in nearly a minute that nearly reached the 13 SMA. This would have made it an easy decision to cancel the order with only about 4 ticks movement at 20 sec. After peaking it reversed 8 ticks in nearly 2 min to the LOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to the S1 Pivot in 12 min before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.4.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 062015

5/4/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.98B
Actual: -1.32B
Previous Revision: -0.35B to -1.61B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7822
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7812 – 2130:04 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7817 – 2130:19 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7813 – 2131:26 (2 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7825 – 2215 (15 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7814 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7807 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7830 (just above the HOD) / 0.7838 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.34B with a healthy downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 10 ticks in 4 sec that reached the PP Pivot then reversed. This would have filled the inner long entry with 2 ticks to spare then reversed 5 ticks to the LOD and hovered to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 4 ticks before reversing 12 ticks in 13 min after crossing the 200 / 100 SMAs.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.2.2015

Building Approvals, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 032015

2/2/2015 Monthly Trade Balance / BLDG Approvals (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.85B
Actual: -0.44B
Previous Revision: -0.09B to -1.02B
Forecast: -4.8%
Actual: -3.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 7.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7776
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7766 – 1930:05 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7784 – 1930:50 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.7787 – 1939 (9 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup (1 tier – 15/20 ticks):
Long entry – 0.7761 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7796 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.41B with a small downwad previous report revision while the BLDG Approvals report also exceeded the forecast by 1.5% with a negligible upward previous revision. All of this caused a whipsaw that was just too small by a few ticks to fill the inner long entry as it fell 10 ticks to fall short of the S1 Pivot then reversed for 18 ticks to reach the 200 SMA. Cancel the order as it was fleeting and fell short of the tier. After the :31 bar, it climbed 3 more ticks in the next 8 min to reach the PP Pivot and HOD.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.2%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -2.17B
Actual: -3.89B
Previous Revision: +0.09B to -1.23B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7770 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7732 – 2130:21 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7740 – 2130:41 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.7705 – 2141 (11 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.7724 – 2204 (34 min)
19 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.7731 -2319 (109 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7750 (above the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7785 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Both reports missed the forecast with the trade balance really dropping a bomb. This caused a decisive short spike that refused to reverse. This is why we only trade the outer tier in this situation and use a reasonably tight stop. Your long entry would have filled at 0.7750 after 3 sec. Then it hovered a few ticks in the red before hitting the stop for a 10 tick loss after 8 sec. You could have closed prior to the stop out, but unless you had deciphered the results, there would not have been reason to do so after less than 10 sec. It continued to step lower for another 27 ticks in 10 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 23 min and another 7 ticks in another 75 min. If you were savvy, after seeing the results, look to short the market in the 0.7730 area and use the S2 Pivot as a target for about 20 ticks.

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