Monthly Trade Balance | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 262015

7/1/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.21B
Actual: -2.75B
Previous Revision: -0.25B to -4.14B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7620
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7604 – 2130:11 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7611 – 2131:10 (2 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7601 – 2134 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7610 – 2139 (9 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7599 – 2144 (14 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7611 – 2151 (21 min)
12 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7627 – 2351 (151 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7611 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7604 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.7628 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7636 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.54B with a moderate downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks in 11 sec that crossed all 3 Major SMAs, the S1 Mid Pivot and reached the LOD then reversed. This would have filled the inner long entry after 8 sec and the outer tier (if placed at 0.7604 or higher) 3 sec later making 0.76075 your average long position. Due to the consistent bearish news, do not wait for a strong reversal and look to exit quickly when it retreated to the S1 Mid Pivot at 0.7610 for 5 total ticks. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in 2 min before reversing 9 ticks in 5 min to the S1 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 5 min before reversing 12 ticks in 7 min. It continued to climb another 16 ticks slowly in 2 hrs as it crossed the PP Pivot and extended the HOD.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.3.2015

Sep 062015

8/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -3.06B
Actual: -2.93B
Previous Revision: +0.07B to -2.68B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7252 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7277 – 2130:03 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7259 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7274 – 2131:45 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7265 – 2134 (4 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7285 – 2206 (36 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.7276 – 2213 (43 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7233(just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7272 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Both reports exceeded the forecast with the retail sales by 0.2% and 0.13B with trade balance. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks in 3 sec that reached the R2 Mid Pivot and reversed. This would have filled the short entry at 0.7272 after 3 sec. Then it fell quickly 18 ticks to the OOD but pulled back. This would have allowed about 5 ticks to be captured where it hovered at 0.7267. After that it pulled back 15 ticks in 2 min before reversing 9 ticks in 2 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in 32 min before reversing 9 ticks in 7 min.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 9.2.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 062015

9/2/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.6%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -3.10B
Actual: -2.46B
Previous Revision: -0.12B to -3.05B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7036 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7005 – 2130:11 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7026 – 2130:18 (1 min)
)))21 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.6998 – 2139 (9 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.7025 – 2236 (66 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7017 (in between the PP / S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7056 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The retail sales report fell well short of the forecast by 0.5% with a modest downward previous revision while the trade balance report exceeded the forecast by a modest margin. The retail sentiment dominated the reaction as it fell 31 ticks in 11 sec. It crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the S1 Pivot before reversing. This would have filled the long entry at 0.7017 then hit the 10 tick stop just a few sec later. It reversed 21 ticks in 7 sec to the PP Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 8 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 57 min as it crossed the PP Pivot / 100 SMA.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.5.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_5_2015

10/5/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.48B
Actual: -3.10B
Previous Revision: -0.33B to -2.79B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7062
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7042 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7055 – 2130:10 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7044 – 2131:49 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7055 – 2056 (26 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7064 – 2202 (92 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7054 (in between the PP Pivot / LOD) / 0.7046 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7070 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7077 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7054 and 0.7046 – both long tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7054 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7070 – just above the R1 Mid Pivot – move lower after hovering below the PP Pivot

Notes: Large spike, but still a profitable outer tier fill for up to 8 ticks.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_3_2015

11/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -2.85B
Actual: -2.32B
Previous Revision: +0.39B to -2.71B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7169 – shift up 4 ticks to 0.7173
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7181 – 1930:28 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7174 – 1932:06 (3 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7181 – 1935 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.7165 – 2009 (39 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7157 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7190 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small reaction due to the second match in 2 months on Rtl sales. Good reversal trade opportunity after the double top at 1935.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.2.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_2_2015

12/2/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Forecast: -2.61B
Actual: -3.31B
Previous Revision: -0.08B to -2.40B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7295
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7282 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7289 – 1930:08 (1 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7281 – 1937 (7 min)
)))8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7288 – 1955 (25 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7305 – 2139 (129 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7287 (No SMA / Pivot near / 0.7280 (below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7302 (just above the HOD) / 0.7310 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7287 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7289 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7295 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Spike was just short of the outer tier by 2 ticks, then did not reverse much. This scenario is rare, but look to exit near breakeven.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Feb 242014

2/5/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -0.27B
Actual: 0.47B
Previous Revision: +0.20B to 0.08B
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.8912 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8896 – 1930:04 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8946 – 1931:04 (2 min)
)))50 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.8930 – 1933 (3 min)
16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8959 – 1943 (13 min)
63 ticks

Pullback to 0.8939 – 2046 (76 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8897 (below the OOD/HOD and above the 200 SMA) / 0.8887 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8929 (on the R2 Pivot) / 0.8937 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report matched the forecast with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report strongly exceeded the forecast by 0.74B, with a sizeable upward previous report revision. This caused a dip downward of 16 ticks that quickly reversed course after hitting the 200 SMA, OOD and LOD to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot just after the :31 bar expired. Your inner tier long entry should have filled then given you about 30 ticks on the reversal long if you left it unchanged. If you moved it further up, as many as 50 ticks could have been captured easily. After the top was established, it pulled back 16 ticks on the next 2 bars before gearing up for an extended reversal of 13 more ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it traded sideways above the R3 Mid Pivot and eventually retreated to the 100 SMA about an hour later.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 1.6.2014

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 142014

1/6/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.30B
Actual: -0.12B
Previous Revision: +0.17B to -0.36B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8918
1st Peak @ 0.8926 – 1931 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.8915 – 1931 (1 min)
-11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8887 – 1940 (10 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 0.8911 – 2013 (43 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded expectations with a moderate previous report upward revision. This caused a surprising and unfortunate indecisive reaction with high volatility as it did 3 whipsaws in the first 27 sec. We saw repeated swings of 11 ticks between the LOD and OOD just above the 3 major SMAs. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 0.8924 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out immediately on the rebound at about 0.8917 for a 7 tick loss. After the :31 bar, it continued to fall dramatically in the next 9 min for another 28 ticks, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it pulled back for 24 ticks in the next 33 min.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.38B
Actual: -0.53B
Previous Revision: -0.01B to -0.27B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9023
1st Peak range: 0.9013 to 0.9033
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9008 – 1936 (6 min)
15 ticks
Reversal to 0.9043 – 2028 (58 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of expectations with a negligible previous report revision. This caused a surprising and unfortunate indecisive reaction with high volatility. We saw repeated swings of 20 ticks from the low to the high of the bar, then it settled lower at the bar close. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 0.9017 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out immediately on the rebound at about 0.9028 for a 11 tick loss. After the :31 bar, it chopped lower to achieve a 2nd peak of 15 ticks 5 min later as it hit the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 35 ticks in a little less than an hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs. With no apparent cause for the indecisive reaction, this is concerning.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.5.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.51B
Actual: -0.28B
Previous Revision: -0.13B to -0.69B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9471
1st Peak @ 0.9489 – 1932 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9469 – 2004 (34 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9461 – 2054 (84 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded expectations, offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 18 tick long spike that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot, peaking on the :32 bar, then retreated back due to the resistance barrier. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 0.9476 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get about 10 ticks with an exit near the R1 Mid Pivot. After the initial spike, it reversed for 20 ticks in 30 min to the LOD and another 8 ticks in the next 50 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it bounced off of the S1 Mid Pivot as volume dried up.

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