Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 042015

10/1/2014 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 2.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8711
1st Peak @ 0.8730 – 2130:19 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.8717 – 2132 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.8749 – 2157 (27 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.8732 – 2215 (45 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 8771 – 2310 (100 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 0.8757 – 2325 (115 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly stronger with 1.9% deviation, with a small downward previous revision. It was also released concurrently with a near matching Trade Balance report. This caused a 19 tick long spike in 19 sec that started on the 13 SMA and rose to reach the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 0.8716 with 2 ticks of slippage, then climbed in a choppy manner to the R2 Pivot before retreating. It made a secondary rally later in the bar and hovered at 0.8728 for about 20 sec to allow an exit with 12 ticks. After that it reversed 13 ticks in 1 min to the original HOD position. Then it engaged in a long term stepping rally, eventually reaching a final peak of 41 more ticks after 108 min after eclipsing the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 15 min to the R3 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.1.2014

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 042015

9/1/2014 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: +1.2% to -11.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9306
1st Peak @ 0.9312 – 2130:11 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.9306 – 2130:25 (1 min)
6 ticks

Pullback to 0.9311 – 2136 (6 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.9303 – 2142 (12 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with only 0.8% deviation, but a relatively large upward previous revision. This caused only a 6 tick long spike in 11 sec that started just above the S4 Pivot and rose to cross the 13 SMA and S4 Mid Pivot. It hovered for 4 sec near the top then reversed 6 ticks back to the origin in the middle of the bar. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.9309 with no slippage, then allowed 2 ticks to be captured if you exited quickly. Otherwise an exit between breakeven and 2 ticks loss would have been likely later in the bar. After the reversal, it pulled back 5 ticks in 5 min to cross the S4 Mid Pivot and 20 SMA before reversing 8 ticks in 6 min.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

Building Approvals Comments Off

Jan 042015

7/30/2014 Building Approvals (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -1.0%
Actual: -5.0%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 10.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9295
1st Peak @ 0.9283 – 2130:35 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.9288 – 2132 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.9279 – 2133 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9302 – 2217 (47 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker with -4.0% deviation, with a small upward previous revision. It was also released concurrently with a weak Import Prices report. This caused a 12 tick short spike in 35 sec that started on the 100/50 SMAs and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 0.9290 with 2 ticks of slippage, then continued to fall to the S1 Mid Pivot in a slow manner. Look to exit at about 0.9285 where it hovered for over 30 sec with 5 ticks. After that it reversed 5 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 44 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the PP Pivot.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.5.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_5_2015 6A 12-15 (Second) 10_5_2015

10/5/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2330 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7057
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7083 – 2330:24 (1 min)
)))26 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7068 – 2331:00 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7095 – 2340 (10 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.7084 – 2347 (17 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7108 – 0045 (75 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 0.7086 – 0209 (159 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7037 (in between the PP Pivot / OOD) / 0.7024 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7079 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.7091 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7079 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7069 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7037 (inner long tier) – move higher to the R1 Mid Pivot after observation.

Notes: Exit quickly after noticing the failure to reverse strongly and hovering above the R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.2.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_2_2015 6A 12-15 (Second) 11_2_2015

11/2/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor point @ 0.7157
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7090 – 2229:50 (0 min)
)))-67 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7198 – 2230:02 (1 min)
)))108 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7124 – 2231:00 (2 min)
)))-74 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7162 – 2234 (4 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 0.7142 – 2241 (11 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7198 – 2313 (43 min)
56 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7135 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.7123 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7179 (just above the R4 Pivot) / 0.7190 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7135 / 0.7123 – both long tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7103 – stopped – 52 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Abnormally large whipsaw with no breakout cause that moved 13 sec early. The settings were just about 15 ticks too tight to handle it. Still note the symmetry of the top of the whipsaw and look to short it at the hovering.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.30.2015

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_30_2015

11/30/2015 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (2230 EST)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor point @ 0.7254 – shift 4 ticks lower to 0.7250
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7263 – 2230:04 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7246 – 2230:17 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7272 – 2232:05 (3 min)
)))26 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7255 – 2305 (35 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7228 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7217 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7270 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7280 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: After last month saw a 108 tick span whipsaw, we got a yawner that did not come near the inner tiers until about 2 min after the release. Cancel…

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.1.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_1_2015

10/1/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7019 – move 2 ticks lower to 0.7017
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7030 – 2130:34 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7022 – 2130:47 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7028 – 2131:21 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7018 – 2144 (14 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.7027 – 2146 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.7009 – 2213 (43 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7005 (on the OOD) / 0.6997 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7029 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7039 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7029 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7022 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7018 – just below the PP Pivot – move up after the hovering.

Notes: Delayed release of about 30 sec. Still a nice inner tier trap trade that fell off of the R1 Mid Pivot on a matching report.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.5.2015

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_5_2015

10/5/2015 Monthly Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.48B
Actual: -3.10B
Previous Revision: -0.33B to -2.79B
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7062
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7042 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7055 – 2130:10 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7044 – 2131:49 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7055 – 2056 (26 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7064 – 2202 (92 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7054 (in between the PP Pivot / LOD) / 0.7046 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7070 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7077 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7054 and 0.7046 – both long tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7054 – 8 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7070 – just above the R1 Mid Pivot – move lower after hovering below the PP Pivot

Notes: Large spike, but still a profitable outer tier fill for up to 8 ticks.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_3_2015

11/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -2.85B
Actual: -2.32B
Previous Revision: +0.39B to -2.71B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7169 – shift up 4 ticks to 0.7173
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7181 – 1930:28 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7174 – 1932:06 (3 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7181 – 1935 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.7165 – 2009 (39 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7157 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7190 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small reaction due to the second match in 2 months on Rtl sales. Good reversal trade opportunity after the double top at 1935.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 12_3_2015

12/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7335
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7346 – 1930:09 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7333 – 1931:18 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7339 – 1932:02 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7319 – 2021 (51 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7325 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.7315 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7346 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7356 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7046 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7334 – 12 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7332 to 0.7336 (in between the 100/200 SMAs)

Notes: Good setup for 10+ ticks on the reversal. Nice reversal after the pullback could not go above the 200 SMA.

Older Entries Newer Entries