6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.22.2013

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Nov 302013
 

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10_22_2013 6A 12-13 (1 Range) 10_22_2013

10/22/2013 Quarterly CPI (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9678
1st Peak@ 0.9716 – 2031 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.9697 – 2033 (3 min)
19 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive, exceeding the forecast by 0.4%. This resulted in a quick choppy long spike of 38 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and fell short of the R2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB and the recommended limit order setting, you would have filled long at 0.9685 and avoided 12 ticks of slippage that would have been seen with stop orders. This is due to the retracement after the initial burst back to 0.9879. Look to exit at about 0.9710 for 25 ticks when it hovered for 9 sec between 0.9702 and 0.9716. If you waited you still could have captured about 10-15 ticks later in the bar. After the peak, it reversed for 19 ticks on the :33 bar, with 11 ticks of the retreat gained on the naked wick of the :31 bar. After that it traded sideways for about an hour above the R1 Pivot, but never could make a successful run at a 2nd peak.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 07.23.2013

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Aug 082013
 

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 7_23_20136A 09-13 (1 Range) 7_23_2013

7/23/2013 Quarterly CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9245
1st Peak@ 0.9201 – 2131 (1 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.9270 – 2132 (2 min)
69 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9284 – 2138 (8 min)
83 ticks

Notes: This report was slightly negative, resulting in a quick short spike of 44 ticks that was slightly unsustainable as it hit its peak at 12 sec then backed off, leaving 43 ticks on the tail naked as it continued higher into the reversal. The spike crossed the S1 Pivot on the short move, the retreated back through the SMAs and struggled with the R1 Mid Pivot for a few min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.9229 with 9 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it drop all the way to 0.9201 quickly and then back off. Due to the large move, the matching result, and the appearance of a retreat, close out as soon as possible. You could have captured 8-20 ticks. After the initial reversal, it gained another 14 ticks in the next 6 min, then backed off until the negative CNY Manufacturing report came out to drive the market lower at 2145.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.23.2013

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Apr 292013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4_23_20136A 06-13 (2 Range) 4_23_2013

 

4/23/2013 Quarterly CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast:  0.7%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0235
1st Peak@ 1.0196 – 2131 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.0217 – 2134 (4 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0193 – 2151 (21 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.0209 – 2158 (28 min)
17 ticks

Notes:   This report was moderately negative, resulting in a quick short spike of 39 ticks that was slightly unsustainable as it left 9 ticks on the tail naked.  The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and nearly reached the S1 Pivot while extending the LOD by 21 ticks.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0224 with 4 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it drop all the way to 1.0200 quickly and then chop sideways between 1.0200 and 1.0215 for the majority of the :31 bar, then a final drop to 1.0196 and rebound to 1.0205 as the bar expired.  Look to exit at about 1.0202 at the S1 Mid Pivot for about 20 ticks.  After the 1st peak, we saw a quick and large reversal of 21 ticks in 3 bars that could not quite reach the 13 SMA.  Then it fell again for a 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks on the :51 bar, before reversing for 17 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot 7 min later.  Then it chopped sideways between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1.22.2013

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Apr 292013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1_22_2013 6A 03-13 (2 Range) 1_22_2013

 

1/22/2013 Quarterly CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast:  0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0516
1st Peak@ 1.0491 – 1931 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0517 – 1945 (15 min)
26 ticks

Notes:   This report was mildly negative, resulting in a quick short spike of 25 ticks, followed by a retracement of 17 ticks as it was unable to sustain the drop.   Extending the LOD, and crossing the S1 / S2 Pivots was too much to hold, so it bounced up strongly.  This is a report we may want to watch to use a profit trigger.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0508 with 1 tick of slippage. You would have seen the dramatic drop and rebound.  I would look to get a few ticks, and move the stop loss down to 1.0511, just above the S1 Pivot (3 ticks risk).  You would have been able to close between 1.0502 and 1.0506 for 2-6 ticks.  The reversal was able to reclaim 26 ticks from the bottom of the :31 bar, and 16 ticks from the :41 bar in 30 min, crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs.  After that it fell again and traded below the S2 for several hours

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

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Oct 232012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

10/23/2012 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0229
1st Peak@ 1.0261 – 1431 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.0240 – 1445 (15 min)
21 ticks

Notes: This report was strongly positive on the face of it, but high amounts of slippage, and the initial retracement may have stopped you out. This resulted in a quick rise of 21 ticks, followed by a retracement of 22 ticks which may have hit your stop loss with JOBB if you experienced more than 7 ticks of slippage and filled higher than 1.0243. On the other hand the retracement happened very fast, so if you had a slower connection, you may have gotten lucky where your stop loss tried to apply to the chart when the price was below it and been saved by a Ninja error. See the range chart to see what I am talking about. If you were fortunate to avoid the stop, try to close out with a limit order near or above the R2 Pivot at the top of the hovering range with 15 or so ticks. The reversal was able to reclaim 21 ticks in a relatively quick 15 min.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 10.23.12

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Oct 232012
 


6A 12 12 (2 Range) 10.23.12

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 07.24.12

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Jul 242012
 


6A 09 12 (2 Range) 07.24.12

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.24.12

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Jul 242012
 


6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.24.12

7/24/2012 Quarterly CPI (1530 HI time / 2130 EST)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE then UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0143
1st Peak@ 1.0165 / Reverse to 1.0125 – 1531 (1 min)
22 / -18 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0191 – 1739 (129 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.0165 – 1946 (256 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report was initially indecisive with only 0.1% offset from the forecast. This resulted in a quick rise of 22 ticks, followed by a reversal of 40 ticks which would have hit your stop loss after a few seconds with JOBB. In the first minute of the range chart, you can see the rapid swings. 90% of the action occurred in the first 3 seconds. In spite of the initial indecisive reaction, the bulls came out for the long term reaction when the positive reading sank in. The market slowly climbed to a Final peak of 48 ticks at 1.0191 over 2 hrs later. Then the reversal after the 2nd peak yielded only 26 ticks in 2 hrs.

6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.24.12

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Jan 242012
 


6A 03 12 (2 Range) 01.24.12

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.24.12

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Jan 242012
 


6A 03 12 (1 Min) 01.24.12

1/24/2012 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0410
1st Peak@ 1.0422 / Reverse to 1.0385 – 1431 (1 min)
12 / -25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0454 – 1441 (11 min)
44 ticks

Reversal: negligible

Notes: Report was indecisive landing at 0.0%. This resulted in a quick pop up of 12 ticks, followed by a reversal which would have hit your stop loss after 2-3 seconds with JOBB. In spite of the indecisive reaction, the 2nd Peak was true to form achieving a relatively small 44 ticks in 11 minutes. No significant reversal after the 2nd peak.

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