10/25/2011 Quarterly CPI (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0263
1st Peak@ 1.0195 – 1431 (1 min)
68 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 1.0227 – 1435 (5 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0190 – 1535 (65 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 1.0219 – 1610 (100 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report matched expectations. This resulted in a decisive drop, but the particulars were abnormal for this report. This caused a healthy but smaller than normal spike, relatively large reversal, then a delayed and smaller 2nd peak nearly 1 hr later. Spike crossed all three SMAs on the down spike, but very close to the origin. I would wait for the 2nd peak at about 11 min as usual, but the reversal at 1434 was larger than normal. The double bottom at 1447 validates the wait for the 2nd peak on this report. After seeing the double bottom, I would trade the reversal and get out when it hit the 50 SMA at about 1.0215.

7/26/2011 Quarterly CPI (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0648
1st Peak@ 1.0751 – 1534 (4 min)
103 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0772 – 1541 (11 min)
124 ticks

Reversal to 1.0735 – 1649 (79 min)
37 ticks

Notes: SET JOBB to :57 seconds to avoid the premature opposite spike. Report was positive, exceeding expectations. This caused a healthy spike, with a follow on peak at 11 min later. Spike crossed all three SMAs on the up spike, but very close to the origin. I would wait for the 2nd peak at 11 min. Notice there was no significant pullback after the 1st candle either. Reversal yielded 37 ticks, but took over an hour to achieve its max just short of the 100 SMA. 24 ticks of the reversal were achieved in 4 minutes, but the other 13 ticks took about an hour.

4/26/2011 Quarterly CPI (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2%
Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0389
1st Peak@ 1.0441 – 1535 (5 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.0408 – 1610 (88 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report was positive, exceeding expectations. This caused a healthy spike, peaking on the 1535 candle, with a follow on peak 6 min later. All three SMAs were crossed on the up spike, but near the origin. The peak of the 1531 candle hit 6 seconds into the spike, then it hovered within 8 ticks of the peak for the rest of the candle. Still wait for the peak around 5-6 min and a follow on at about 11 min with this report. Reversal yielded 33 ticks in about 30 min, crossing the 50 SMA, but unable to reach the 100 SMA.