3/1/2016 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7163
1st Peak @ 0.7208 – 1931:05 (2 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.7201 – 1931:07 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7232 – 1942 (12 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.7214 – 1952 (22 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7172 (long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7207 – 35 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7196 (just above the R1 Pivot) and 0.7208 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A stable setup and low slippage fill on a healthy spike to the R2 Mid Pivot. On these bigger quarterly reports on the 6A, it is okay to be patient for a few more ticks as it will have biased sentiment for a while without wanting to reverse. Here we saw basically continuous upward momentum until the R2 Pivot was reached for the first 4 min. Then it achieved a 2nd peak a few min later and settled into a sideways channel. Not advisable to trade reversals on these trades.

6/3/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9255
Premature Spike @ 0.9244 – 2130:00 (1 Min)
-11 ticks

1st Peak@ 0.9295 – 2130:02 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.9272 – 2144 (14 min)
23 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9250 – 2249 (79 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on a very high forecast with no previous revision. This caused a head fake short for 11 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP Pivot and hit the LOD, followed by the true long move of 40 ticks that crossed the R4 Mid Pivot and backed off. With JOBB, yor short entry would have filled at 0.9248 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out 1 sec later at about 0.9275 with 17 ticks of slippage on the large long move. As this report is proving to behave this way more often, we will shift to a larger bracket (16-18 ticks) to avoid the premature spike or use a large Trap Trade setting of 40 ticks. After the spike, it reversed 23 ticks in the next 14 min to the 20 SMA and R3 Mid Pivot in 13 min. Then it continued to fall for another 22 ticks in the next hour as it reached the R1 Mid Pivot.

12/2/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.8457
1st Peak@ 0.8399 – 1931:07 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.8406 – 1932 (2 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8386 – 1941 (11 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 0.8397 – 1944 (14 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8415 – 2109 (99 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report missed the forecast by a large margin of 0.4% with no previous revision. This caused a large short spike of about 34 ticks immediately, then a slower descent for another 24 ticks in the next 64 sec to eclipse the S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 17 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.8435 with 5 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it continue to fall and eventually hover around 0.8401 to allow 34 ticks to be captured. Once you see the strong offset on the result, be patient on the exit as it will peak late. Small reversals and stepping additional peaks are normal in these situations. It reversed for only 7 ticks in the next minute before falling for a final peak for 13 more ticks in the next 9 min. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 3 min and another 18 ticks in the next 85 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

6/2/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7764
1st Peak@ 0.7819 – 2130:02 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.7783 – 2132 (2 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7814 – 2140 (10 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7784 – 2244 (74 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a margin of 0.2% with no previous revision. This caused a large long spike of 55 ticks immediately, then backed off. It started on the 20 SMA and climbed to reach the R1 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 17 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.7485 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it peak and retrace in the next sec. A profit target of anything less than 30 ticks would have filled. Otherwise look to exit quickly when profit is on the table in the most expedient manner. You should have been able to exit with about 10-20 ticks. After that it reversed 3 ticks in 1 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 31 ticks in 8 min . Then it reversed 30 ticks in 64 min after crossing the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot.

12/1/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.7320
1st Peak@ 0.7340 – 1930:03 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7307 – 1955 (25 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7337 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7339 – 2 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7362 (above the R2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Exit quickly with a few ticks after it showed reluctance to go above 20 ticks. Very strong reversal.