RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9.14.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 9_14_2015

9/14/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Pt @ 0.7114 – shift up 2 ticks to 0.7116
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7096 – 2131:08 (2 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7107 – 2131:54 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7089 – 2138 (8 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.7101 – 2147 (17 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7109 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / 0.7100 – just below the PP Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7123 (just above the R1 Pivot / 0.7131 (in between the R2 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Slow and delayed reaction that did not really launch until over 1 min after the release. Cancel the order.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10.19.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 10_19_2015

10/19/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7240 – shift down 3 ticks to 0.7237
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7257 – 2030:40 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7247 – 2030:52 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7255 – 2031:15 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7242 – 2039 (17 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.7230 – 2210 (100 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7229 (just below the OOD / 0.7221 – on the LOD)
Short entry – 0.7245 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot / 0.7252 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7245 and 0.7252 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7247 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7238 (just below the PP Pivot) – move higher after observation

Notes: Large long spike did not follow the Cash rate reaction. Look to exit with a handful of ticks on the initial reversal. Also the long term reversal would have shown promise after lower highs developed.

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11.16.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 12-15 (1 Min) 11_16_2015

11/16/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 0.7087
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7080 – 1930:27 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7098 – 1937:32 (8 min)
)))18 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.7077 – 2011 (41 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7091 – 2059 (89 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7080 or 0.7079 (on the PP Pivot / 0.7071 – on the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7094 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot / 0.7102 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 0.7080 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7097 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7093 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Very slow reaction, but would have delivered with patience. Inner long entry would have filled if 0.7080 or higher. Nice pullback following the reversal too.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 12.14.2015

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 082016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 12_14_2015

12/14/2015 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Pt @ 0.7207
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7213 – 1930:30 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7227 – 1938 (8 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7211 – 1953 (23 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7200 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7191 – in between the S1 / S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.7215 (just above the OOD / 100 SMA) / 0.7223 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small reaction due to December season. Cancel with the slow gradual approach and failure to exceed 6 ticks after 1:10.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 11.18.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Nov 302013

11/18/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9349
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9336 – 1930:11 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9348 – 1930:48 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9336 – 1931:20 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9366 – 1938 (8 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 0.9354 – 1950 (20 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell 13 ticks 11 sec into the :31 bar, then reversed back to the origin after 48 sec before a pullback to double bottom 20 sec into the :32 bar. The drop nearly reached the S1 Pivot. 10 ticks was the recommended offset. So with an anchor point of about 0.9349 as the centerline of trading in the last 30 min, the HOD at 0.9358 is a good point for the short entry, and with no indicator near 7-10 on the short side, just go with 9-10 ticks at 0.9340 for the long entry. The long entry would have filled with 4 ticks of space, then backed off to give 8 ticks of profit for easy capture. It fell again, but then reversed to give 20+ ticks profit on a patient exit near the HOD. Then it pulled back to the 100/200 SMAs for 12 ticks. After that it rallied to step higher near the PP Pivot.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 10.14.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 212013

10/14/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9472
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9468 – 2030:13 (1 min)
-4 ticks

Reversal to 0.9483 – 2030:37 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.9471 – 2031:38 (2 min)
-12 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9496 – 2117 (47 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.9483 – 2143 (73 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a slow developing reaction that fell 4 ticks then rebounded 15 ticks 37 sec into the :31 bar. The initial drop may have been noise, but the low session volume and knowledge of news makes that unlikely. The drop eclipsed the 50 SMA as support, then rose to hit the R2 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. 7-10 ticks was the recommended offset. So with an anchor point of about 0.9472 as the centerline of trading in the last 45 min, a point in between the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD at about 0.9481 is a good point for the short entry, and the R1 Mid Pivot at 0.9463 is a good area of support for the long entry. You may have cancelled the order with no fill after 30 sec, and that would have been conservative. If not the short entry would have filled and then backed off into profit within a few seconds. The 50 SMA or R1 Pivot at about 0.9473 would have been a good target for 8 ticks on the :32 bar. After the initial volatility, it achieved a double top at the R2 Mid Pivot. before falling to a double bottom 5 min later. Then it trended higher stepping up to 0.9496 about 45 min after the report, eclipsing the R2 Pivot. Then it backed off to the R2 Mid Pivot and traded sideways.

6A 12-13 (1 Min) 9.16.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 212013

9/16/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9254
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9245 – 2130:05 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.9271 – 2130:30 (1 min)
-36 ticks

Pullback to 0.9263 – 2130:34 (1 min)
8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9280 – 2133 (3 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.9231 – 2154 (24 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a quick short unsustainable spike for 9 ticks that quickly retraced and headed long with considerable movement internal to the :31 bar. Though at first glance it appears to be a decisive long spike, it would have been a good setup for the trap trade. We recommended a Trap Trade with 7-10 tick offset and 10 tick stop on this report after the Cash Rate was initially indecisive. So with an anchor point of 0.9254 on the 50 SMA, the 200 SMA / OOD at 0.9262 is a good point for the short entry, but there is no good area of support on the bottom. In this case, anything 7-10 ticks should work. Anything less that 10 ticks would have filled for a long entry, then given much profit when it turned around long. If you did not fill on the initial short move, you could have cancelled or gotten filled on the short entry on top. If filled, it would have hovered around the fill point for several seconds without giving much profit. Close the order near break even before it hits the stop loss in this case. After the :31 bar, it continued long to hit the PP Pivot on the :33 bar, then reversed dramatically in the next 20 min for 49 ticks.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 8.19.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Oct 212013

8/19/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9082
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.9095 – 2130:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9084 – 2130:12 (1 min)
-11 ticks

Pullback to 0.9103 – 2132:00 (2 min)
21 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9090 – 2136 (6 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9105 – 2141 (11 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.9058 – 2203 (33 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a long spike with considerable movement internal to the :31 bar. Though at first glance it appears to be a decisive long spike, it would have been a good setup for the trap trade. We recommended a Trap Trade with 7-10 tick offset and 10 tick stop on this report after the Cash Rate was initially indecisive. So with an anchor point of 0.9082 on the S1 Pivot, go with the 0.9070 for the long entry on the S2 Mid Pivot and 0.9094 for the short entry on the 100 SMA. These are more than 10 ticks, but the first clear area of support / resistance. The short entry would have filled on the initial burst, then given you up to about 10 ticks to capture on 2 occasions until 7 sec remained in the :31 bar. Move the stop loss down to breakeven if you are looking to carry the trade beyond the :31 bar to stay safe. After the trap trade scenario and volatility faded, it reversed back to the just above the 50 SMA for 13 ticks on the :36 bar. Then it rallied for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, before reversing dramatically for 47 ticks in about 20 min.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 7.15.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/15/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9071
Fake spike to 0.9066 – 2131 (1 min)
5 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.9111 – 2132 (2 min)
40 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9132 – 2201 (31 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 0.9114 – 2208 (38 min)
18 ticks

Notes: In a departure from the trend, the Minutes caused a small short spike of 5 ticks, then was decisively bullish for a large breakout that had no correlation to the Cash Rate report from 2 weeks ago. We recommended a Trap Trade with 7-10 tick offset and 10 tick stop on this report after the Cash Rate was initially indecisive. So with an anchor point of 0.9071, the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD at 0.9063 and the R1 Pivot at 0.9083 offered good positions. The short position at 0.9083 would have filled, then stopped you out at 0.9093 for -10 ticks 2 seconds later. It continued long into an Upward Fan stepping higher until the Final peak of 61 ticks in 31 min. After that it reversed 18 ticks, but hit the HOD for a triple top on two more occasions as the bullish move held.

6A 09-13 (1 Min) 6.17.2013

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 062013

6/17/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9483
1st Peak @ 0.9470 – 2131 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9494 – 2132 (2 min)
24 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9439 – 2226 (56 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.9463 – 2245 (75 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a short spike of 13 ticks that hit the LOD and then pulled back up. It was unsustainable and left all 13 ticks on the tail naked, settling where it started, then the :32 bar continued up to 0.9494 to eclipse the 200 SMA. The reversal was also unsustainable as it surrendered the gain then continued falling to step lower for nearly an hour for 31 more ticks, eventually conquering the S1 Mid Pivot. The final reversal reclaimed 24 ticks in about 20 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 2 ticks of slippage at about 0.9478, then had a brief opportunity to capture a handful of ticks before it reversed. The alternative recommendation to trap trade it would have been far more safe and profitable as we can count on a wide range on the first few bars. I used a 10 ticks offset to buy at 0.9473 on the :31 bar, then conservatively exited with 10 ticks, but 5-10 more ticks would have been easily captured.

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