6A 06-13 (1 Min) 5.20.2013

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Jun 022013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min)  5_20_2013

5/20/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9751
1st Peak @ 0.9733 – 2131 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.9759 – 2133 (3 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9796 – 2326 (116 min)
63 ticks

Notes: Minutes caused a short spike of 18 ticks that crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD 10 ticks lower. It was unsustainable and left 12 ticks on the tail naked, then continued the reversal on the following 2 bars for a total of 26 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at about 0.9747, then had an opportunity after it dropped to exit with 10-12 ticks before it reversed. As the Cash rate 2 weeks ago had a surprise cut and caused a large short move, this report moving short first matched the form overall. The extended reversal was able to capture 63 ticks in nearly 2 hrs after the report.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.15.2013

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May 052013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min)  4_15_2013

4/15/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2130 EDT)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0289
1st Peak @ 1.0298 – 2131 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0277 – 2134 (4 min)
21 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.0267 – 2155 (25 min)
31 ticks

Notes:  Minutes caused a long spike of only 9 ticks that crossed the 13 and 20 SMAs to match the high set just a few min earlier.  It was unsustainable and left 7 ticks on the wick naked, then fell on the following 3 bars for a total of 21 ticks.  With JOBB, you would have filled long with no slippage at about 1.0292, then had an opportunity after it popped up and fell to close out near breakeven in between 2 ticks loss or gain in the latter part of the bar.  As the Cash rate 2 weeks ago was indecisive, spiking long first then reversing short, this report matched the form overall. The reversal was able to capture 21 ticks in 4 min to eclipse the S4 Pivot, then fell another 10 ticks 20 min later.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 3.18.2013

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May 052013
 

6A 06-13 (1 Min)  3_18_2013

3/18/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2030 EDT)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0326
1st Peak @ 1.0318 – 2031 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0335 – 2049 (19 min)
17 ticks

Notes:  Minutes caused a short spike of only 8 ticks that crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Pivot and LOD.  Due to several support barriers, it could not sustain the drop and reversed on the latter part of the :32 bar.   With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at about 1.0322, then had an opportunity to close out with 3 ticks at the S1 Pivot before it reversed strongly on the following bars.  The support barriers were too much to sustain the fall.  This followed the same pattern as the Cash Rate from 2 weeks ago, going short, then reversing quickly and strongly past the origin.  The reversal was able to capture 17 ticks in 19 min to cross the PP Pivot and extend the HOD 3 ticks.  After that it slowly fell again in the next few hours.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.18.2013

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May 052013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min)  2_18_2013

2/18/2013 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0292
1st Peak @ 1.0282 – 1931 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.0310 – 1942 (12 min)
28 ticks

Notes:  Minutes caused a short spike of only 10 ticks that crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs and the R1 Pivot.  With the LOD and PP looming a few ticks below, it could not sustain the drop and reversed after about 13 sec.   With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at about 1.0387, then had an opportunity to close out with 2-4 ticks before it reversed 13-20 sec after the report.  The support barriers were too much to sustain the fall.  As the minutes were digested over time, the market traded sideways for the next 5 min or so just above the 100 SMA, then executed a quick and strong reversal for a total of 28 ticks extending the HOD and crossing the R2 Pivot.  After that it pulled back to the 50 SMA and chopped sideways on top of the 50 SMA.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.19.12

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Nov 192012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 11.19.12

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.15.12

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Oct 152012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.15.12

10/15/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1430 HI time / 2030 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0206
1st Peak @ 1.0194 – 1431 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.0218 – 1441 (11 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Expected short spike for 12 ticks due to the 25 BP rate cut 2 by the RBA 2 weeks ago that was unable to sustain most of its drop due to crossing the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1-2 ticks of slippage at about 1.0200, then had an opportunity to close out with about 4 ticks when it bottomed and began to retreat about 30 sec into the bar. If you were unable to get out, move your stop loss to break even and be safe. The reversal took over quickly and was able to recover the drop then extend the rally to the HOD for 24 ticks in 10 min before volume started to dry up.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.17.12

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Sep 172012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.17.12

9/17/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0378
1st Peak @ 1.0353 – 1531 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0403 – 1611 (41 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Healthy short spike for 25 ticks that was able to sustain most of its drop to the expiration of the :31 bar. The spike crossed the 50 SMA about 1/3 the way down its path and hit resistance just above the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1-2 ticks of slippage at about 1.0371, then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.0355 where it hovered near the bottom for 16 ticks. The reversal was able to recover the drop fairly quickly hitting resistance on the 100 and 200 SMAs, then slowly climbing for another 20 ticks as it crossed the PP Pivot. It all the reversal snared 50 ticks in 41 min as volume was drying up.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.20.12

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Aug 202012
 


6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.20.12

8/20/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0429
1st Peak @ 1.0424 – 1531 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reverse to 1.0458 – 1614 (44 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Small spike of only 5 ticks with a healthy reversal that played out slowly over 44 min. With JOBB, your order would not have filled, so cancel it after 10 sec. The initial drop hit strong support on the 200 SMA, then rebounded to settle into the reversal. The reversal managed to climb 2-3 ticks per bar and found marginal resistance at the R1 and R2 Pivots. With the 50 and 100 SMAs near the origin, no SMAs were crossed.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.16.12

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Jul 162012
 


6A 09 12 (1 Min) 07.16.12

7/16/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0225
1st Peak @ 1.0239 – 1531 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reverse to 1.0225 – 1535 (5 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Quick spike and reversal with little fanfare. The market went long initially for 14 ticks to the high of the day, but could not hold onto its gains as it retraced from the top of the wick to fall back to the origin on the next bar. No major SMAs were crossed as the market had rallied before the report, but the R2 Pivot weighed on the action at 1.0235. The market stayed locked in the same range for another hour, unable to escape until it broke out long for a few more ticks.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 06.18.12

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Jun 182012
 


6A 09 12 (1 Min) 06.18.12

6/18/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0047
1st Peak @ 1.0058 – 1531 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reverse to 1.0036 – 1535 (5 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Tame report reaction overall. With lighter than average volume, the market went long initially, but could not hold onto its gains as it retraced from the top of the wick to fall 22 ticks in a relatively short 5 min to the area where the 200 and 100 SMAs were converging. With the recent RBA decisions to cut rates 50 BP at the last meeting, then 25 more BP at the this meeting, the volatility seen on the RBA decision carries over into the minutes reflected in the choppiness and initial move that could not hold.