Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Apr 092016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0530 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.0%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -8.8K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -18.0K
Previous Revision: -13.6K to -28.4K
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.4127
1st Peak @ 1.4139 – 0530:31 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4128 – 0530:35 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.4140 – 0534 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4110 – 0542 (12 min)
30 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The initial second movement would have been contained within the 10 tick bracket for the first 25 sec, so cancel the order. After dealing with resistance from the S1 Pivot for the first 4 min it reversed nicely for 30 ticks to the 200 SMA.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Mar 062016

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2016 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.9%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 2.1%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -2.9K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -14.8K
Previous Revision: -10.9K to -15.2K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.4288
1st Peak @ 1.4253 – 0430:06 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.4295 – 0436 (6 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 1.4277 – 0448 (18 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.4340 – 0519 (49 min)
63 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4276
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4254 – 22 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4247 ( in between the S1 Pivot and LOD) – move higher after hovering to 1.4260 area

Notes: The initial second saw a whipsaw that would have been contained inside the 10 tick bracket. Then we saw the decisive reaction fall 35 ticks in 6 sec and hover about 10 ticks above the S1 Pivot. Look to exit there as this is a precursor to a reversal and the strong layers of support crossed between 1.4275 an d1.4280. Then we saw a nice reversal of 42 ticks in 6 min then another 63 ticks in the next 40 min.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 1.21.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Jun 132015

1/21/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.7%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -24.2K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -29.7K
Previous Revision: -2.7K to -29.6K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5150
1st Peak @ 1.5070 – 0431:41 (2 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 1.5110 – 0442 (12 min)
40 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index matched the forecast while the Claimant Count Change exceeded the forecast by 5.5K with a moderate bullish revision to the previous report. This caused a 80 tick short spike that fell about 45 ticks immediately, then fell another 35 ticks in the next 90 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 1.5139 with 1 tick of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and hover on the S3 Mid Pivot. Look to exit there with about 60 ticks. After that it reversed 40 ticks in 10 min to the 20 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it oscillated between about 1.5090 and 1.5110 for the next hour.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 2.18.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Jun 132015

Caption for 2/18:
2/18/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EST)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.7%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.8%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -25.2K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -38.6K
Previous Revision: -6.1K to -35.8K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5368
1st Peak @ 1.5416 – 0430:42 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 1.5405 – 0430:57 (1 min)
11 ticks

Final peak @ 1.5439 – 0516 (46 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 1.5419 – 0541 (71 min)
20 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index exceeded the forecast by 0.4% with a moderate bullish revision to the previous report while the Claimant Count Change exceeded the forecast by 13.4K with a healthy bullish revision to the previous report. This caused a 48 tick long spike in 42 sec that started on the 20 SMA and climbed to cross the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 1.5379 with 1 tick of slippage. Then you would have seen it step higher with all the news consistent to encounter first resistance around 1.5407. This would have allowed an exit with at least 25 ticks with up to 12 more ticks with patience. After a small reversal of 11 ticks late in the :31 bar, it stepped higher for a final peak of 23 more ticks in 45 min as it crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 25 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it oscillated around the R3 Mid Pivot for a few hours.

6B 06-15 (1 Min) 3.18.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Jun 132015

3/18/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0530 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.2%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -30.6K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -31.0K
Previous Revision: -0.8K to -39.4K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4760
1st Peak @ 1.4686 – 0530:52 (1 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 1.4698 – 0532 (2 min)
12 ticks

Final peak @ 1.4648 – 0606 (36 min)
112 ticks

Reversal to 1.4677 – 0623 (53 min)
29 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index fell short of the forecast by 0.4% while the Claimant Count Change matched the forecast with a modest bullish revision. This caused a 74 tick short spike in 52 sec that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and reached the S2 Pivot as it extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 1.4749 with 1 tick of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall 65 ticks in 23 sec, then eke out another 9 ticks in the next 30 sec. It encountered initial support on the S2 Mid Pivot, then chopped between the S2 and S2 Mid Pivots. This would have allowed an exit with about 55 ticks. After a 12 tick reversal on the :32 bar, it fell another 38 ticks in 34 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 29 ticks in 17 min after crossing the 50 SMA.

6B 06-15 (1 Min) 4.17.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Jun 132015

4/17/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.8%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.9%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -29.1K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -20.7K
Previous Revision: +1.9K to -29.1K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.4973
1st Peak @ 1.5011 – 0430:02 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 1.4963 – 0430:04 (1 min)
-48 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.5031 – 0502 (32 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 1.5008 – 0511 (41 min)
23 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with a bullish revision to the previous report while the Claimant Count Change fell short of the forecast by 8.4K with a modest bearish revision. This caused a whipsaw with a 38 tick long spike in 2 sec that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot then collapsed immediately to the 50 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled with 1 tick of slippage at 1.4984 and then stopped at 1.4964 for a 20 tick loss. After that it rallied again over 31 min to achieve a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks as it crossed the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 9 min to the 20 SMA.

6B 06-15 (1 Min) 5.13.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Jun 132015

5/13/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 1.7%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -20.5K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -12.6K
Previous Revision: +4.0K to -16.7K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5680
1st Peak @ 1.5723 – 0430:03 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.5706 – 0430:51 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.5744 – 0433 (3 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 1.5714 – 0449 (19 min)
30 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index exceeded the forecast by 0.2% while the Claimant Count Change fell short of the forecast by 7.9K with a moderate bearish revision. This caused a 43 tick long spike in 3 sec that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 1.5691 with 1 tick of slippage. Then you would have seen it try to penetrate the R2 Mid Pivot twice and fail. An optimal exit would have been just underneath the R2 Mid Pivot to allow 20-25 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 17 ticks at the end of the :31 bar to the R1 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks in 2 min to cross the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 16 min to cross the 20 SMA.

6B 09-15 (1 Min) 6.17.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Jun 272015

6/17/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.5%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.7%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 2.3%
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -12.5K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -6.5K
Previous Revision: -1.3K to -7.8K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 1.5659
1st Peak @ 1.5715 – 0430:02 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 1.5684 – 0434 (4 min)
31 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.5725 – 0447 (17 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 1.5714 – 0448 (18 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index exceeded the forecast by 0.2% with a large previous upward revision while the Claimant Count Change fell short of the forecast by 6.0K with a moderate bullish revision. We saw premature movement in the 23 sec leading up to the report to be a tripwire to cancel the order. After the release we saw a 56 tick long spike in 2 sec that nearly reached the R3 Pivot. This was followed by a 31 tick reversal the crossed the R3 Mid Pivot and came near the 13 SMA. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 13 min as it crossed the R3 Pivot before reversing 11 ticks in 1 min. Then it traded sideways around the R3 Pivot for about 45 min.

6B 09-15 (1 Min) 7.15.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Aug 232015

7/15/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 3.3%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 3.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: -8.9K
Claimant Count Change Actual: 7.0K
Previous Revision: +5.4K to -1.1K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (SLIPPED -NO FILL)
Started @ 1.5647
1st Peak @ 1.5604 – 0430:00 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 1.5622 – 0430:53 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd peak @ 1.5595 – 0434 (4 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 1.5640 – 0501 (31 min)
45 ticks

Pullback to 1.5602 – 0539 (69 min)
38 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with a no previous revision while the Claimant Count Change fell short of the forecast by 1.9K with a moderate bearish revision. This caused a 43 tick short spike in 1 sec that reached the PP Pivot. Due the settings we use with a 10 tick bracket and 1 tick limit, it would have slipped the order and not filled. It reversed 18 ticks to the old LOD position in 53 sec before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed 45 ticks in 27 min to the 100 SMA before pulling back 38 ticks to the PP Pivot in 38 min.

6B 09-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015

Avg Earnings / Claimant Ct Change Comments Off

Sep 172015

8/12/2015 Average Earnings Index / Claimant Count Change (0430 EDT)
Avg Earnings Index Forecast: 2.8%
Avg Earnings Index Actual: 2.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Claimant Count Change Forecast: 1.4K
Claimant Count Change Actual: -4.9K
Previous Revision: -6.8K to -7.8K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5589
1st Peak @ 1.5533 – 0430:03 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 1.5576 – 0430:21 (1 min)
43 ticks

Pullbackto 1.5544 – 0433 (3 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.5576 – 0454 (24 min)
32 ticks

Notes: The Avg Earnings Index fell short of the forecast by 0.4% with no previous revision while the Claimant Count Change exceeded the forecast by 6.3K with a healthy bullish revision. We a large short spike of 56 ticks in 3 sec that started on the 50 SMA and fell to reach the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing, With JOBB, 10 tick bracket and limit orders, your short order would have filled at 1.5578 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed up to 40 ticks to be captured with a profit target or where it hovered near the bottom for 4 sec. After that it reversed 43 ticks in 18 sec before pulling back 32 ticks in 2 min to nearly reach the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 21 min to the 200 SMA.

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