6B 06-14 (1 Min) 6.3.2014

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Jun 082014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min)  6_3_2014

6/3/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 61.2
Actual: 60.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6773
1st Peak @ 1.6755 – 0430:01 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.6773 – 0504 (34 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.2 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that started on the 13 SMA, then fell to cross the 50/100 SMAs, the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.6767 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall 12 ticks, retrace 20 ticks, then fall again. This is where a 10 tick profit target would have filled easily before the retracement. Otherwise, the 12 tick stop would have had 4 ticks of clearance to ride out the heat, then you would have had an opportunity to exit with about 6 ticks when it hovered for over a minute just below the R1 Pivot. After that it remained stuck on the 100 SMA for a long time and eventually reversed aft 0500, but that was also due to the EUR CPI news.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014

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Jul 132014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  7_2_2014

7/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 59.7
Actual: 62.6
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.7140
1st Peak @ 1.7169 – 0430:02 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.7158 – 0441 (11 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 1.7166 – 0449 (19 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.7153 – 0500 (30 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 2.9 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 29 ticks that started on the 200 SMA, PP Pivot and OOD, then rose to cross the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.7151 with 7 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover after the initial spike near 1.7162 for an easy exit with about 11 ticks. Once again a 10 tick profit target would have filled easily and offered about the same result. After that it chopped around the R2 Mid Pivot for about 5 min, then dropped to the 13 SMA after 11 min. Then it pulled back for 8 ticks to reach the R2 Mid Pivot after 8 more min before reversing 13 ticks to the 50 SMA at the top of the hour.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 8.4.2014

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Aug 242014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  8_4_2014

8/4/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 62.1
Actual: 62.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6816
1st Peak @ 1.6827 – 0431:02 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.6822 – 0433 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6828 – 0436 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6813 – 0450 (20 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly stronger than the forecast with 0.3 pts offset. This caused a slow developing long spike of 11 ticks that started just above the S1 Mid Pivot, then rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs and the OOD. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.6820 with no slippage, then seen it hover after the initial spike late in the :31 bar at 1.6826 for an easy exit of 6 ticks. After that it reversed for 5 ticks before climbing for a minor 2nd peak of 1 more tick just short of the PP Pivot. Then it fell 15 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 14 min.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 9.2.2014

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Sep 162014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  9_2_2014

9/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 61.5
Actual: 64.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6562
1st Peak @ 1.6580 – 0430:01 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.6516 – 0532 (62 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 1.6530 – 0553 (83 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 2.5 pts offset. This caused a quick long spike of 18 ticks that started just below the 100 SMA, then rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs and the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at about 1.6571 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak quickly and back off to hover around the 200 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot. With the early indications that this resistance is holding, set your target for 1.6575 and look to exit with 4 ticks. Based on typical trends, it would be wise to look for a manual long entry around the 100 SMA after the quick and large reversal with strong results. This would have resulted in a loss this time, but an aptly placed stop at 1.6557 just below the S3 Pivot and the low of the 0430 bar would have resulted in 6 ticks loss. It reversed for a total of 64 ticks in a slow but methodical manner in the the next hour, crossing the S4 Pivot with ease and using the 13 SMA as resistance. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 21 min to the 50 SMA.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 10.2.2014

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Oct 192014
 

6B 12-14 (1 Min)  10_2_2014

10/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 63.7
Actual: 64.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6179
1st Peak @ 1.6199 – 0430:45 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.6172 – 0433 (3 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 1.6189 – 0440 (10 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.6164 – 0454 (24 min)
25 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.6146 – 0516 (46 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 0.5 pts offset. After volatile pre report movement in the waning seconds, this caused a quick long spike of 15 ticks that started on the 20 SMA, then rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at about 1.6184 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it eclipse the PP Pivot quickly then back off for about 10 sec. Then it rallied to target the 200 SMA late in the bar and back off. You could have exited conservatively around 1.6190 for 6 ticks when it started backing off after the initial long spike, or set a target at the 200 SMA for a follow up push for about 14 ticks. After reaching the 200 SMA, and still having lingering effects of crossing the PP Pivot, it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 2 min to the OOD. Then it pulled back 17 ticks to the PP Pivot in the next 7 min. After that it reversed 25 ticks in the next 14 min to the S1 Mid Pivot, then another 18 ticks in the next 22 min.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 11.4.2014

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Nov 232014
 

6B 12-14 (1 Min)  11_4_2014

11/4/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 63.5
Actual: 61.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5998
1st Peak @ 1.5974 – 0430:03 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 1.5988 – 0432 (2 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 1.5979 – 0435 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.5994 – 0443 (13 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.5973 – 0449 (19 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.6003 – 0526 (56 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 2.1 pts offset. This caused a quick short spike of 24 ticks that started on the 50 SMA, then fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs near the origin and the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at about 1.5988 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it eclipse the PP Pivot quickly then back off to just below the R1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit at about 1.5980 for 8 ticks.  After that it pulled back for 9 ticks after 3 min before reversing 15 ticks to the 200 SMA in 8 min. Then it pulled back again for 21 ticks to the PP Pivot in 6 min before reversing 30 ticks to the HOD in the next 37 min.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 12.2.2014

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Dec 312014
 

6B 12-14 (1 Min)  12_2_2014

12/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 61.1
Actual: 59.4
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5713
1st Peak @ 1.5699 – 0431:52 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5709 – 0445 (15 min)
10 ticks

Double Bottom @ 1.5699 – 0452 (22 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.5714 – 04510 (40 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.7 pts offset. This caused a quick short spike of 11 ticks in 1 sec that started just below the S1 Pivot / 200 SMA, then fell to cross the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot. After the initial spike, it backed off and traded sideways, then eventually fell for 3 more ticks. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at about 1.5706 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it dance around your fill point for a while until it drifted lower. Since the S2 Mid Pivot was holding, do not get too greedy but look to exit with 2-4 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 10 ticks in 13 min to the 100 SMA before falling for a double bottom 7 min later. Then it reversed 15 ticks in the next 18 min, crossing the 100 / 200 SMAs to reach the S1 Pivot.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 1.5.2015

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Jan 142015
 

6B 03-15 (1 Min)  1_5_2015

1/5/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 59.2
Actual: 57.6
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5304
1st Peak @ 1.5287 – 0430:18 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.5301 – 0436 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.6 pts offset. This caused a quick short spike of 17 ticks in 18 sec that started above the 100 SMA and fell to cross the 50 SMA and reach the S1 Pivot / 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled short at about 1.5297 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to hover around 1.5290 to allow 7 ticks to be captured just above the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 5 min to get stuck on around the 100 SMA.  It drifted lower nearly 1 hr after the release, but likely due to other market factors.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 2.3.2015

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Mar 012015
 

6B 03-15 (1 Min)  2_3_2015

2/3/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 56.9
Actual: 59.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4993
1st Peak @ 1.5018 – 0431:21 (2 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.5005 – 0449 (19 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5064 – 0606 (96 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 1.5047 – 0644 (134 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 2.2 pts offset. This caused a quick long spike of 16 ticks in 1 sec then another 9 ticks later. It started below the S1 Pivot and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at about 1.5002 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it settle and hover at 1.5012 near the 200 SMA for most of the bar offering a nice 10 tick exit. It eked out a few more ticks in the :32 bar before reversing 13 ticks in 17 min. Then it stepped higher to a final peak of 46 more ticks, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot in 77 min before reversing 17 ticks in 38 min. It continued to step higher in the next few hours in a long term rally due to other issues.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 3.3.2015

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Mar 222015
 

6B 03-15 (1 Min)  3_3_2015

3/3/2015 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 59.0
Actual: 60.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.5363
1st Peak @ 1.5374 – 0430:50 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.5363 – 0452 (22 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 1.1 pts offset. This caused a slow developing long spike of 11 ticks that took most of the :31 bar to reach the peak. It started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the PP Pivot and 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 1.5367 with no slippage, then seen it settle and hover at the top for 17 sec to allow an exit with up to 7 ticks. After that it reversed 11 ticks in the next 22 min in a choppy manner back to the origin.