6/3/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 61.2
Actual: 60.0
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6773
1st Peak @ 1.6755 – 0430:01 (1 min)
18 ticks
Reversal to 1.6773 – 0504 (34 min)
18 ticks
Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.2 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that started on the 13 SMA, then fell to cross the 50/100 SMAs, the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.6767 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall 12 ticks, retrace 20 ticks, then fall again. This is where a 10 tick profit target would have filled easily before the retracement. Otherwise, the 12 tick stop would have had 4 ticks of clearance to ride out the heat, then you would have had an opportunity to exit with about 6 ticks when it hovered for over a minute just below the R1 Pivot. After that it remained stuck on the 100 SMA for a long time and eventually reversed aft 0500, but that was also due to the EUR CPI news.