6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016

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Apr 262016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_4_2016

4/4/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 54.2
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.4215
1st Peak @ 1.4219 – 0430:18 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.4210 – 0431:32 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4234 – 0436 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.4193 – 0455 (25 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused a dull move of only 4 ticks in 18 sec. Cancel the trade with these conditions. It did achieve a decent 2nd peak, but it is not advisable to seek a trade on this as the results are not likely the cause and it was unexpected. The reversal after the 2nd peak could have been traded after seeing the price action around 0440 and the 13 SMA turn down.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.2.2016

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Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_2_2016

3/2/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 55.5
Actual: 54.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3943
1st Peak @ 1.3933 – 0431:24 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1.3944 – 0433 (3 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3915 – 0445 (15 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.3994 – 0609 (99 min)
79 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.3939 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.3934 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.3927 (just below the LOD)

Notes: Small initial spike recoiled then fell again in the middle of the :31 bar. Due to the decisive results, propensity for a 2nd peak, and lack of a key support level above the LOD, stay patient. It fell for a 2nd peak breaking through the S1 Mid Pivot just after. Then it reversed into a long trend lasting about 1.5 hrs for 79 ticks to the HOD / R1 Pivot.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 9.3.2013

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Mar 292014
 

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 9_3_2013

9/3/2013 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 58.4
Actual: 59.1
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.5584
1st Peak @ 1.5604 – 0431 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.5584 – 0433 (3 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 1.5598 – 0437 (7 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5566 – 0507 (37 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report came in stronger than the forecast with 0.7 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 20 ticks that started on the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD, then broke out to cross the R2 Pivot. It hovered between 1.5596 and 1.5600 for the entire :31 bar allowing for an exit at about 1.5598. After the :31 bar, it reversed for 20 ticks back to the origin and R2 Mid Pivot in the next 2 bars. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in the next 4 min before falling for a larger reversal of 32 ticks in the next 30 min to the R1 Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.2.2013

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Mar 292014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10_2_2013

10/2/2013 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 60.1
Actual: 58.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6196
1st Peak @ 1.6184 – 0432 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6195 – 0438 (8 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6182 – 0443 (13 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.6220 – 0511 (41 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.2 pts offset. This caused a short spike of 12 ticks that started on the 50 SMA, then broke out to cross the 100 SMA and hit the OOD/S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit at or below the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 6 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 additional ticks in the next 5 bars to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed for 38 ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.4.2013

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Mar 292014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11_4_2013

11/4/2013 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 58.9
Actual: 59.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.5936
1st Peak @ 1.5949 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.5961 – 0448 (18 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.5944 – 0459 (29 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly better than the forecast with 0.5 pts offset. This caused a long move for 13 ticks that started on the 50 SMA, then broke out to cross the 13/20 SMAs and extend the HOD. Look to exit in between 1.5942 and 1.5945 where it hovered for most of the bar. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks 4 min later followed by a reversal of 7 ticks and a final peak of 12 more ticks after 18 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 11 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 12.3.2013

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Mar 292014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 12_3_2013

12/3/2013 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 59.3
Actual: 62.6
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.6393
1st Peak @ 1.6419 – 0431 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.6397 – 0434 (4 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 1.6417 – 0455 (25 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1.6394 – 0517 (18 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 3.3 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 26 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs , then broke out to cross the R1 Pivot. Look to exitat about 1.6415 after it hit the R1 Pivot and started to back off. After the peak, it reversed back to the 13 SMA on the next 3 bars for 22 ticks. Then it climbed 20 ticks in the next 21 min in a failed attempt at a 2nd peal to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. Then we saw a reversal for 23 ticks in 18 min back to the 100 SMA.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.4.2013

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Mar 292014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2_4_2014

2/4/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 61.6
Actual: 64.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6294
1st Peak @ 1.6336 – 0432 (2 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6316 – 0444 (14 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6339 – 0516 (46 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 1.6321 – 0538 (68 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in much stronger than the forecast with 3.0 pts offset. This caused a long spike of 42 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs and S1 Mid Pivot, then broke out to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. Due to the strong divergence, the reaction was more sustainable and hovered around the R1 Mid Pivot allowing for an easy exit above 1.6330. After the peak, it traded sideways on the R1 Mid Pivot for about 9 min before falling to the 20 SMA and PP Pivot for a total of 20 ticks on the :44 bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks 30 min later before it reversed for 18 ticks 20 min later.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 3.4.2014

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Mar 292014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 3_4_2014

3/4/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 63.6
Actual: 62.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.6705
1st Peak @ 1.6692 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.6706 – 0433 (3 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.6668 – 0504 (34 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.6697 – 0556 (86 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.0 pts offset. This caused a small short spike of 13 ticks that started above the 50/100 SMAs, then broke out to cross the SMAs and nearly reach the 200 SMA. Look to exit at about 1.6694 where it hovered in the middle of the bar. After the peak, we saw an immediate reversal for 14 ticks back to the origin 2 min later. Then it descended into a large 2nd peak of 29 more ticks in the next 30 min. After that we saw a reversal yield 29 ticks in the next 52 min back to the 200 SMA.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

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Apr 222014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4_2_2014

4/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 62.5
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6645
1st Peak @ 1.6633 – 0431 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6648 – 0455 (25 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 1.6634 – 0510 (40 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 0.6 pts offset. This caused a small short spike of 12 ticks that started above the 50 SMA, then fell to cross the 100 SMA and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.6641 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 3-4 ticks when it hovered for about 15 sec. It started to reverse in the latter part of the :31 bar, then got stuck on the 50 SMA for 20 min before breaking out to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot for a total of 15 ticks. After that it started to drift lower as it pulled back for 14 ticks 15 min later.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 5.2.2014

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May 202014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 5_2_2014

5/2/2014 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 62.2
Actual: 60.8
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.6880
1st Peak @ 1.6868 – 0430:01 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.6884 – 0442 (12 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in weaker than the forecast with 1.4 pts offset. This caused a small short spike of 12 ticks that started just below the OOD, then fell to cross the S1 Pivot and nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, you would have filled at 1.6874 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 3 ticks when it hovered for about 20 sec. It started to reverse in the latter part of the :31 bar, and retreated all the way back to the origin. After 10 min of trading sideways, it climbed another 4 ticks to the 100 SMA. After that it slowly drifted lower, but took about an hour to reach the low of the 1st peak, so it was likely due to other factors.

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