6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2.25.2016
Mar 222016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 2_25_2016

2/25/2016 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)

Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.3918
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3930 – 0430:21 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3901 – 0432:44 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
————
2nd Peak to 1.3939 – 0450 (20 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.3910 – 0505 (35 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3908 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot/ LOD) / 1.3898 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.3929 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.3939 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A fill just before the time to cancel on the inner short tier, then a nice reversal allowing up to 27 ticks to be captured. A target at the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot would have been prudent. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing again.

6B 03-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 03-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013
May 212014
 

6B 03-13 (1 Min)  2_27_2013

2/27/2013 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: -0.3%
Actual: -0.3%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.5134 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5147 – 0430:04 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5122 – 0430:30 (1 min)
)))-25 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.5136 – 0432 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5098 – 0443 (13 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 1.5164 – 0512 (42 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 1.5124 – 0528 (58 min)
40 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5124 (just below the OOD) / 1.5113 (just above the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 1.5144 (below the PP Pivot) / 1.5154 (above the PP Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as is normal. This caused a relatively small long spike of 13 ticks that nearly reached the PP Pivot, followed by a 25 tick reversal to nearly reach the 50 SMA. This would have filled the inner short entry with 3 ticks to spare then reversed to fall and hit your opposite long entry for a nice 20 tick profit. After that it pulled back for 14 ticks before falling for a much larger reversal of 38 ticks as it crossed the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back for 66 ticks in the next 30 min to cross the PP Pivot. Finally it fell 40 ticks to the OOD and 50/100 SMAs after 16 min.

6B 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.2013

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.2013
May 212014
 

6B 06-13 (1 Min)  5_23_2013 6B 06-13 (Second)  5_23_2013

5/23/2013 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.5064 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5054 – 0429:51 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5072 – 0430:30 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5050 – 0435 (5 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5074 – 0439 (9 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5054 (above the 50 SMA) / 1.5043 (on the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 1.5074 (above the PP Pivot) / 1.5084 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as is normal. This caused a relatively small premature short spike of 10 ticks that moved 9 sec early, followed by a 18 tick reversal to just above the PP Pivot. This would have barely filled the inner long entry and then reversed after the :31 bar opened look to exit at about 1.6470 with 16 ticks just above the PP Pivot. It continued to chop up and down, falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to cross the 50 SMA, then rebounding to eclipse the PP Pivot.

6B 09-13 (1 Min) 8.23.2013

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 09-13 (1 Min) 8.23.2013
May 212014
 

6B 09-13 (1 Min)  8_23_2013 6B 09-13 (Second)  8_23_2013

8/23/2013 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Started @ 1.5607 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5656 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))49 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5619 – 0430:16 (1 min)
)))-37 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.5636 – 0438 (8 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.5617 – 0450 (20 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5596 (on the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.5586 (on the PP Pivot/ OOD)
Short entries – 1.5618 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1.5627 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in 0.1% above the forecast in a rare deviation. This caused a very large spike of 49 ticks that reached the R3 Mid Pivot and promptly collapsed to hover 35 ticks lower near the R2 Mid Pivot. This would have filled both short entries and then the stops with about 5 ticks of slippage for a 30 tick total loss. After the reversal, it pulled back for 17 ticks in the next 7 min to the R2 Pivot before falling 19 ticks in 12 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.27.2013

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.27.2013
May 212014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min)  11_27_2013 6B 12-13 (Second)  11_27_2013

11/27/2013 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.6231 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6218 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6230 – 0430:21 (1 min)
)))12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6203 – 0435 (5 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.6277 – 0448 (18 min)
74 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6325 – 0637 (127 min)
122 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6221 (just below the 100 SMA) / 1.6210 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 1.6242 (on the R1 Pivot) / 1.6251 (No SMA/ Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks about 7 sec into the :31 bar that started on the 13/20 SMAs and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs then retreated. This would have filled the inner long entry with 3 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 14 sec and hovered around the 50 SMA. Look to exit on the 50 SMA for about 8 ticks. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in the next 4 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. Then it reversed strongly to reach the R2 Pivot for 74 ticks in 13 min, and continued to step higher for the next 2 hrs for another 48 ticks, crossing the R3 Mid Pivot.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.26.2014

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.26.2014
May 212014
 


6B 03-14 (1 Min)  2_26_20146B 03-14 (Second)  2_26_2014

2/26/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6673 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6695 – 0429:41 (0 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6665 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-30 ticks

)))Double Top @ 1.6695 – 0430:41 (1 min)
)))30 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.6677 – 0457 (27 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6663 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.6654 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6684 (just below the 50 SMA) / 1.6694 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused a premature long spike of 22 ticks about 19 sec early that started below the OOD and rose to hit the HOD. This would have filled both short entries with 1 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 30 ticks in the next 20 sec, matching the low from 4 min earlier and barely missing the opposite entry. Look to exit below the OOD for about 30 total ticks on 2 contracts. After the reversal, it rebounded for a double top in the next 40 sec, then fell to chop sideways and eventually fall to the PP Pivot and 200 SMA for 18 ticks in 27 min.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 06-14 (1 Min) 5.22.2014
Jun 012014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min)  5_22_2014

5/22/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.6900 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6874 – 0432:00 (2 min)
)))-26 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6882 – 0432:34 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.6859 – 0458 (28 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.6877 – 0529 (59 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6889 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.6880 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6910 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6921 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused a muted reaction initially that would have remained inside of the inner tiers for nearly 50 sec. This would be cause to cancel the order to be safe. This would have been prudent in this case as the move was decisively bearish and would have been a losing scenario with the trap trade. It fell for the 1st peak of 26 ticks in 2 min to the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 8 ticks to the PP Pivot in 34 sec. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 15 more ticks in the next 25 min. After that it reversed for 18 ticks in 31 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

6B 09-14 (1 Min) 8.15.2014

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 09-14 (1 Min) 8.15.2014
Aug 312014
 

6B 09-14 (1 Min)  8_15_2014

8/15/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.6682 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6695 – 0429:48 (0 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6685 – 0429:50 (0 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6695 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6687 – 0430:33 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6697 – 0452 (22 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1.6683 – 0510 (40 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6672 (on the S1 Pivot) / 1.6662 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6693 (just above the HOD) / 1.6702 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused a premature long spike of 13 ticks, that started on the PP Pivot and rose to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot, then retreated back to the 200 SMA and repeated the move after the bottom of the hour. This would have filled your inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare then allowed you to exit with 7 ticks immediately, or after the pullback and reversal about midway through the :31 bar. Another nice thing about the Trap Trade is that premature moves are not a concern. It pulled back for 2 more ticks 20 min later as it eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in the next 18 min to reach the 100/200 SMAs.

6B 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014
Dec 282014
 

6B 12-14 (Second)  11_26_2014 6B 12-14 (1 Min)  11_26_2014

11/26/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.5704 (shift to 1.5699)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5712 – 0430:13 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5692 – 0431:02 (2 min)
)))-20 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.5677 – 0441 (11 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1.5703 – 0501 (31 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5690 (just below the LOD) / 1.5678 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5710 (on the 100/200 SMAs) / 1.5720 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused an initial long spike of 13 ticks, that started just below the 13 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs, then retreated back to the PP Pivot. This would have filled your inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare then allowed you to exit with 15+ ticks on the reversal as the bar was expiring. The anchor point would have shifted 5 ticks lower, so move your tiers lower after the initial placement. After that it continued to reverse in the next 9 min to the S1 Mid Pivot for 15 more ticks. Then it pulled back for 26 ticks 20 min later as it crossed the PP Pivot and 50 SMA then peaked at the OOD / 100 SMA.

6B 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

 GBP Second Estimate GDP  Comments Off on 6B 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015
Mar 202015
 

6B 03-15 (1 Min)  2_26_2015

2/26/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.5527
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5518 – 0431:05 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5524 – 0431:48 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.5530 – 0440 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5516 (just above the LOD) / 1.5506 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5537 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1.5547 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as is normal. This caused a slow move of 9 ticks short that took over a minute to materialize. This would have made the decision to cancel easy. After the slow drop, it reversed 6 ticks in 43 sec to the 100 SMA. Then it climbed another 6 ticks in the next 8 min.