2/25/2016 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)

Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Pt @ 1.3918
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3930 – 0430:21 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3901 – 0432:44 (3 min)
)))-29 ticks
————
2nd Peak to 1.3939 – 0450 (20 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.3910 – 0505 (35 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3908 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot/ LOD) / 1.3898 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 1.3929 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.3939 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: A fill just before the time to cancel on the inner short tier, then a nice reversal allowing up to 27 ticks to be captured. A target at the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot would have been prudent. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing again.

5/23/2013 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.3%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.5064 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5054 – 0429:51 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5072 – 0430:30 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.5050 – 0435 (5 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.5074 – 0439 (9 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5054 (above the 50 SMA) / 1.5043 (on the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 1.5074 (above the PP Pivot) / 1.5084 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as is normal. This caused a relatively small premature short spike of 10 ticks that moved 9 sec early, followed by a 18 tick reversal to just above the PP Pivot. This would have barely filled the inner long entry and then reversed after the :31 bar opened look to exit at about 1.6470 with 16 ticks just above the PP Pivot. It continued to chop up and down, falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to cross the 50 SMA, then rebounding to eclipse the PP Pivot.

11/27/2013 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 1.6231 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6218 – 0430:07 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6230 – 0430:21 (1 min)
)))12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6203 – 0435 (5 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.6277 – 0448 (18 min)
74 ticks

Extended Reversal to 1.6325 – 0637 (127 min)
122 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6221 (just below the 100 SMA) / 1.6210 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 1.6242 (on the R1 Pivot) / 1.6251 (No SMA/ Pivot near)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks about 7 sec into the :31 bar that started on the 13/20 SMAs and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs then retreated. This would have filled the inner long entry with 3 ticks to spare. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 14 sec and hovered around the 50 SMA. Look to exit on the 50 SMA for about 8 ticks. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks in the next 4 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD. Then it reversed strongly to reach the R2 Pivot for 74 ticks in 13 min, and continued to step higher for the next 2 hrs for another 48 ticks, crossing the R3 Mid Pivot.

5/22/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Started @ 1.6900 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6874 – 0432:00 (2 min)
)))-26 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6882 – 0432:34 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.6859 – 0458 (28 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 1.6877 – 0529 (59 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6889 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.6880 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6910 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6921 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused a muted reaction initially that would have remained inside of the inner tiers for nearly 50 sec. This would be cause to cancel the order to be safe. This would have been prudent in this case as the move was decisively bearish and would have been a losing scenario with the trap trade. It fell for the 1st peak of 26 ticks in 2 min to the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 8 ticks to the PP Pivot in 34 sec. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 15 more ticks in the next 25 min. After that it reversed for 18 ticks in 31 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

11/26/2014 Second Estimate GDP (0430 EST)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 1.5704 (shift to 1.5699)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.5712 – 0430:13 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5692 – 0431:02 (2 min)
)))-20 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1.5677 – 0441 (11 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 1.5703 – 0501 (31 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5690 (just below the LOD) / 1.5678 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.5710 (on the 100/200 SMAs) / 1.5720 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The reading came in matching the forecast as in normal. This caused an initial long spike of 13 ticks, that started just below the 13 SMA and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs, then retreated back to the PP Pivot. This would have filled your inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare then allowed you to exit with 15+ ticks on the reversal as the bar was expiring. The anchor point would have shifted 5 ticks lower, so move your tiers lower after the initial placement. After that it continued to reverse in the next 9 min to the S1 Mid Pivot for 15 more ticks. Then it pulled back for 26 ticks 20 min later as it crossed the PP Pivot and 50 SMA then peaked at the OOD / 100 SMA.