6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

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Apr 262016
 

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 53.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4223
1st Peak @ 1.4211 – 0430:30 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4218 – 0430:54 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4206 – 0433 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0449 (19 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4219 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4212 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4210 (in between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Matching report caused a smaller move, but offered a zero slippage fill and up to 7 ticks initially. It found support at the LOD, then reversed and fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks 2 min later to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then a nice reversal in the next 16 min to the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA.

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

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Mar 272016
 

6B 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: 55.1
Actual: 52.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 1.4062
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.4042 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.4059 – 0430:04 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.4033 – 0433 (3 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.4072 – 0439 (9 min)
39 ticks

Continued Reversal to 1.4084 – 0456 (26 min)
51 ticks
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.4039 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4024 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.4082 (in between the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 1.4097 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel as it was short of the inner long tier and recoiled instantly. It slowly fell for a 2nd peak just below the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 10.3.2013

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Apr 022014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min)  10_3_2013 6B 12-13 (Second)  10_3_2013

10/3/2013 GBP Services PMI (0428 EDT)
Forecast: 60.4
Actual: 60.3
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.6186 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6210 – 0428:08 (1 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6197 – 0428:17 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6212 – 0429:02 (2 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6203 – 0429:15 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.6224 – 0434 (6 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 1.6210 – 0440 (12 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6166 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 1.6151 (No SMA/Pivot nearby)
Short entries – 1.6208 (just below the 200 SMA) / 1.6221 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching as it was 0.1 pts short of the forecast. This caused a surprisingly large long reaction of 24 ticks that started near the LOD, then rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. That would have barely filled the inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare. Then it would have backed off to hover in between 1.6197 and 1.6200 on the 100 SMA from :11 to :26 sec. Look to exit there with about 10 ticks before it rebounded long to hit a double top as the opening of the:30 bar. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks 4 min later, crossing the PP Pivot and the OOD. After that it reversed back to the 13 SMA for 14 ticks and settled into trading sideways around the OOD.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 11.5.2013

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Apr 022014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min)  11_5_20136B 12-13 (Second)  11_5_2013

11/5/2013 GBP Services PMI (0428 EDT)
Forecast: 60.4
Actual: 62.5
TRAP TRADE (UPWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 1.5974 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6006 – 0428:00 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.5982 – 0428:07 (1 min)
)))-24 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6000 – 0428:35 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.6058 – 0508 (40 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 1.6040 – 0517 (49 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.5954 (just below the PP Pivot) / 1.5939 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 1.5994 (No SMA/Pivot nearby) / 1.6009 (No SMA/Pivot nearby)

Notes: Report came in strong with a reading 2.1 pts above the forecast. This caused a large long reaction of 32 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs, then rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot then backoff immediately . That would have filled the inner short entry with 12 ticks to spare and missed the outer tier by 3 ticks. Then it would have backed off to hover in between the R2 Mid Pivot and R2 Pivot from :06 to :12 sec. Look to exit there with about 10 ticks before it rebounded long to the 1.6000 area 22 sec later. After the initial reversal, it continued to step higher and higher without much of a reversal until it achieved a final peak of 52 more ticks in the next 39 min. This would be a good case to take a manual later entry long after seeing the strong results and the initial reversal being short lived. After the final peak, it reversed for 18 ticks back to the 50 SMA then traded sideways.

6B 12-13 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

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Apr 022014
 

6B 12-13 (1 Min)  12_4_2013 6B 12-13 (Second)  12_4_2013

12/4/2013 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 62.1
Actual: 60.0
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.6352 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6325 – 0428:00 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6349 – 0428:42 (1 min)
)))24 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6336 – 0430:08 (3 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Reversal to 1.6365 – 0440 (12 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6332 (No SMA/Pivot nearby) / 1.6317 (No SMA/Pivot nearby)
Short entries – 1.6370 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 1.6387 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with a reading 2.1 pts below the forecast. This caused a large short reaction of 27 ticks that started on the LOD, then fell cross the S1 Pivot and nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot. That would have filled the inner long entry with 7 ticks to spare. Then it would have backed off to hover in just below the S1 Pivot, then eventually make another push higher. Look to exit on the S1 Pivot with about 13 ticks. After the initial reversal, it pulled back for 13 ticks in the next 2 min before reversing for 29 ticks in 9 min to the 100 SMA. After that it oscillated sideways between the 200 SMA and 50 / 100 SMAs.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 1.6.2014

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Apr 022014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min)  1_6_2014 6B 03-14 (Second)  1_6_2014

1/6/2014 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 60.4
Actual: 58.8
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.6356 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6341 – 0428:00 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6354 – 0428:19 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6337 – 0428:53 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6346 – 0429:30 (2 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1.6329 – 0436 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.6352 – 0447 (19 min)
23 ticks

Extended reversal to 1.6380 – 0547 (79 min)
51 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6338 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot / LOD) / 1.6321 (No SMA/Pivot nearby)
Short entries – 1.6377 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1.6390 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in weak with a reading 1.6 pts below the forecast. This caused a small short reaction of 15 ticks that started just below the 100 SMA, then fell reach the LOD and retreat. That would have missed your inner long entry by a few ticks, so cancel the order. The form still held as it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 19 sec to the 100 SMA. Then it fell to step for a lower peak of 12 more ticks in the next 6 min. After that it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 11 min to the 100 SMA, then another 29 ticks in the next hour.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 2.5.2014

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Apr 022014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min)  2_5_2014 6B 03-14 (Second)  2_5_2014

2/5/2014 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 59.1
Actual: 58.3
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1.6288 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6334 – 0428:08 (1 min)
)))46 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6296 – 0428:16 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6310 – 0428:36 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6283 – 0429:28 (2 min)
)))-27 ticks
————
Extended reversal to 1.6260 – 0457 (29 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6268 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 1.6251 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6309 (just above the PP Pivot) / 1.6322 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with a reading 0.8 pts below the forecast. This caused a large long reaction of 46 ticks in the wrong direction that started just above the LOD and crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot coming just short of the HOD. Then it crashed for 38 ticks in only 8 sec back to the 20 SMA. That would have filled both short entries with about 11 ticks to spare, then retreated to allow up to 36 or more total ticks to be captured below the S1 Mid Pivot. When you saw the long spike and big crash on a bearish report, it would be safe to wait for a larger short move to pan out. After the :31 bar, up to 90 ticks could have been covered as it continued to reverse. It fell to cross the S2 Pivot then trade sideways after 29 min.

6B 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

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Apr 022014
 

6B 03-14 (1 Min)  3_5_2014 6B 03-14 (Second)  3_5_2014

3/5/2014 GBP Services PMI (0428 EST)
Forecast: 58.0
Actual: 58.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 1.6671 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6680 – 0427:54 (0 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6663 – 0428:02 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 1.6678 – 0428:15 (1 min)
)))15 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6692 – 0432 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.6669 – 0449 (21 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6653 (just below the LOD) / 1.6635 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6693 (on the HOD) / 1.6706 (No SMA/ Pivot nearby)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with a narrow offset of +0.2 causing a premature long impulse for 9 ticks as it eclipsed the 50 SMA. Then it reversed 8 sec later 17 ticks to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. All of this movement would have been well inside the 20 tick inner tiers, so cancel the order. After 15 sec it pulled back to the 100 SMA, then eventually achieved a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks on the :02 bar as it nearly reached the HOD. Then it fell 23 ticks in the next 21 min to cross the 200 SMA. After that, it continued to cycle between the R1 Mid Pivot and S1 Mid Pivot 2 more times as it gradually trended lower.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 4.3.2014

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Apr 212014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min)  4_3_2014 6B 06-14 (Second)  4_3_2014

4/3/2014 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 57.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 1.6621 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6594 – 0430:01 (1 min)
)))-27 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6612 – 0431:14 (2 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 1.6596 – 0434 (4 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 1.6609 – 0447 (17 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.6586 – 0501 (31 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1.6599 – 0514 (44 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6600 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 1.6586 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6642 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 1.6655 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot/HOD)

Notes: Report came in short of expectations with an offset of -0.6 causing a premature short impulse for 27 ticks that started about 15 sec early and eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot just after the :31 bar started. This would have filled you inner long tier with about 6 ticks to spare. Then it reversed over the next 1:14 for 18 ticks nearly to the S1 Mid Pivot, allowing up to 12 ticks to be captured. After that is pulled back to 2 ticks short of the initial peak on the :34 bar and reversed to the 13/20 SMAs 12 min later. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot on the :01 bar, before reversing 13 ticks in the next 13 min and trading sideways.

6B 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

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May 252014
 

6B 06-14 (1 Min)  5_6_20146B 06-14 (Second)  5_6_2014

5/6/2014 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 57.9
Actual: 58.7
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 1.6934 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.6942 – 0430:00 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.6928 – 0430:13 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.6948 – 0433 (3 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.6930 – 0500 (30 min)
18 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.6912 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot) / 1.6899 (just below the R3 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.6954 (No SMA / Pivot Near) / 1.6969 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in exceeding the expectation with an offset of 0.8 causing a dull indecisive reaction that strayed only about 8 ticks away from the anchor point in either direction initially. This would have been well short of the inner tiers, so cancel the order with no fill. We see the reaction behavior was suited for the trap trade, but with reactions typically much larger, we cannot set the tiers closer. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks on the :33 bar, then reversed for 18 ticks in the next 27 min to the 100 SMA.