3/9/2016 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7460
—————-
Trap Trade:
))) 1st peak @ 0.7488 – 1001:19 (2 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7473 – 1003:14 (4 min)
)))-15 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.7560 – 1139 (99 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 0.7545 – 1149 (109 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7444 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.7435 (in between the LOD/S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7476 (in between the PP Pivot/HOD) / 0.7488 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The BOC maintained the status quo. This caused a slow moving upward trend. With the slow pace, cancel the order. It developed into a long trend for 100 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs.

4/16/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9092
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9077 – 1000:06 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9113 – 1000:13 (1 min)
)))36 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.9077 – 1000:50 (1 min)
)))-36 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.9063 – 1006 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.9086 – 1010 (10 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9071 (just below the S1 Pivot and LOD)
Short entry – 0.9118 (just below the R2 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused an unsustainable short spike that was too small by about 5-10 ticks to trip our tier. The reversal was sizeable, but it would have also barely missed the tier, so cancel the order. This report is prone to have that happen on occasion as the range of the spikes is so broad and we have conservative settings. After the long reversal, if fell to reach a double bottom before the :01 bar expired, then continued to fall another 14 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks back to the 20 SMA and PP Pivot. After that it chopped sideways for about 1 hour.

7/16/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9278
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9293 – 1000:04 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9255 – 1000:39 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9265 – 1000:53 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9250 – 1004 (4 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.9287 – 1102 (62 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9252 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9305 (just above the R1 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have been too small to reach the trap tier so cancel the order. It initially rose 15 ticks to cross the PP Mid Pivot and extend the HOD, then reversed to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it pulled back for 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot and original LOD position before falling again to hover around the S2 Mid Pivot for 4 min. Then it pulled back strongly to the PP Pivot in about an hour for 37 ticks. The price action near the S2 Mid Pivot would have been an ideal opportunity for a long entry as it kept testing the Pivot and finding support after a large short move. A target of the S1 Pivot would be conservative, but it passed through the 13/20 SMAs strongly, so it would also be safe to hold on.

10/22/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8849
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8832 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8879 – 1000:11 (1 min)
)))47 ticks

)))Continued Reversal to 0.8894 – 1000:28 (1 min)
)))62 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8873 – 1000:55 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.8924 – 1008 (8 min)
51 ticks

Pullback to 0.8897 – 1017 (17 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.8929 – 1027 (27 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 0.8898 – 1054 (54 min)
31 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8834 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8822 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8863 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.8873 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected and changed their language to a more hawkish tune. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have fallen 17 ticks to hit the inner long entry perfectly with 2 ticks to spare, then reversed only 11 sec later to fill the inner short entry at about 0.8863 for 39 ticks. It would have also filled your outer short entry at 0.8873 unless you cancelled it prior to the upward reversal at 11 sec. [If filled on the outer short entry] Since it chopped sideways on either side of the fill point for about 5 sec, be careful here and look to exit quickly near breakeven or better before it climbs higher. It continued to climb to 0.8894 for another 15 ticks and would have barely stopped you if you did not intervene. Even in the worst case scenario you would have made 39 ticks then lost 20 ticks for a net of 19 ticks. After reaching 0.8894, it pulled back 21 ticks before the :01 bar expired back to the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it reversed 51 ticks to the R2 Mid pivot in the next 7 min. After that it pulled back to the PP Pivot in 9 min before reversing to the R2 Mid Pivot in 10 min. Then it pulled back 31 ticks to the PP Pivot and traded sideways between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots.

1/21/2015 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 0.75%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED (DOWNWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 0.8277
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8143 – 1000:12 (1 min)
)))-134 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8178 – 1000:17 (1 min)
)))35 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @0.8110 – 1024 (24 min)
167 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8067 – 1147 (107 min)
210 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8262 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8249 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 0.8292 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8305 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The BOC surprised all and cut rates by 25 BP to 0.75%. This naturally caused a large short reaction since it was unexpected, a rate cut had not been executed in about 5 yrs, and it served as notice the economy was weaker than forecast. Unfortunately this would have been a losing trade for obvious reasons. The initial reaction would have stepped lower in about 6 sec to fill the inner, then outer long entries, then the stop for a loss of about 50 total ticks on the combined entry. We have the risk set at 3 for this report due to the possibility of this scenario, but it is rare. After the 1st peak was achieved in 12 sec to cross the S3 Mid Pivot, it reversed 35 ticks in 5 sec, then continued to fall and step lower. It achieved a 2nd peak of 33 more ticks in 23 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Then it grabbed another 43 ticks in the next 83 min as it crossed the S4 Mid Pivot. This is a good scenario to short the reversal tops at 1005 when it climbed up to the S3 Mid Pivot or the stagnation above the 13/20 SMA at 1030 – 1035.