5/29/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9640
1st Peak @ 0.9621 – 1000 (0 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9652 – 1001 (1 min)
-31 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and took a hawkish tone for the future, implying tighter policy may be needed as the economic expansion progresses. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused an indecisive reaction that moved 2 sec early with an initial short spike of 19 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 31 ticks. On the short move, it crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot, then it reversed to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot, a 31 tick swing in about 21 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 5 ticks of slippage at 0.9628, then seen it reverse quickly to stop you out at 0.9647 with 4 ticks of slippage. This report was raised to a risk rating of “4” after 2 indecisive reports in a row, and now this is the third. The trap trade approach is a worthy proposition for now using a distance of 12-20 ticks.

12/4/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0049
1st Peak @ 1.0074 – 0408 (8 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0078 – 0446 (46 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.0065 – 0512 (72 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and cited gradual growth in the US in spite of the impending fiscal cliff, recession in Europe, and stabilizing growth in China. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but the bulls showed up to cause a mild and slow developing spike of 25 ticks in 8 min. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs on top of each other about halfway up the :01 bar. It briefly stalled on the PP Pivot at 1.0060, before ascending to eclipse the R1 Pivot for the peak. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about no slippage at 1.0055, then seen it stall at the SMAs briefly before finishing the bar with a long move of another 5 ticks to the PP Pivot. If you were patient, you could have gotten at least 5 ticks and as many as 17. It then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 4 more ticks 40 min later before reversing for 13 ticks over an hour later.

9/5/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0115
1st Peak @ 1.0129 – 0302 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0083 – 0420 (80 min)
46 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that an increase may be needed as domestic spending is increasing with weak global demand for exports. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, so the market initially reacted long with a 14 tick spike on 2 bars, but the talk of future rate hikes drove the bears to sell over the next 80 min, keying a strong reversal of 46 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 1.0123. The initial spike crossed all 3 SMAs and only climbed 10 ticks on the :01 bar. I would set my sell limit at the S1 Pivot and exit there with 4 ticks. It briefly eclipsed that area, then could not climb any further, falling into a measured drawn out dive that rode the 20 and 13 SMAs for nearly 90 min.

6/5/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9607
1st Peak @ 0.9583 / Reversal to 0.9630 – 0301 (1 min)
-24 ticks / 23 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9648 – 0408 (68 min)
41 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 0.9594 – 0554 (174 min)
54 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today, citing broad based weakening in Europe the US, and Asia. The lack of action coupled with the jitters in the market caused initial indecision. The BOC was 2nd in line behind the RBA and before the FED to make announcements on central bank policy. With JOBB, you would have filled short, then stopped out immediately on the impending reversal. After the initial indecision, the market settled into a choppy uptrend using the 50 SMA as a floor to achieve a 2nd peak of 41 ticks about 1 hr later. Then it reversed for 54 ticks in a little less than 2 hrs fighting through all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot.