3/8/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0042
1st Peak @ 1.0073 – 0402 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0082 – 0409 / 0411 (9 / 11 min)
40 ticks – 2x top

Reversal to 1.0055 – 0512 / 0513 (72 / 73 min)
27 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged citing modest growth domestically and abroad. The market reacted with a measured rise of 31 ticks in 2 candles then a 2nd peak of 40 ticks a few minutes later. The spike crossed all three SMAs, but at the base of its rise, so no significant pullback happened. Reversal yielded 27 ticks in 61 minutes after the 2nd peak, but 18 ticks of the drop was achieved in only 8 minutes, where the remaining 9 ticks took 53 minutes and had to fight through the 50 and 100 SMAs.

12/6/2011 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9761
1st Peak @ 0.9783 – 0401 (1 min)
22 ticks

“Final” Peak @ 0.9836 – 0438 (38 min)
75 ticks – 2x top

Reversal to 0.9820 – 0451 (51 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today, citing an upbeat forecast of growth in Canada and the US with a bleaker outlook for Europe. With a small expectation of another rate cut, the market reacted strongly heading into a measured upward fan. This was not apparent though after the first 3 min with the 200 SMA providing resistance. I would exit on the 0402 candle after when it started to retreat without hitting the 200 SMA. As a long term reaction is common on this report, keep an eye on how it interacts with the 200 from the sideline. Then on the :09 or :10 candle it would be safe to enter another long trade after it has safely cleared the 200 SMA, then stay in until after the big green candle at :20. Sure you could eke out a few more ticks by staying in longer, but the risk vs reward grows. Notice it did achieve smaller and higher peaks after :22, but it became range bound between 0.9820 and 0.9845, while the 13 crossed the 20 and the MACD reversed.

9/7/2011 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 1.0060
1st Peak @ 1.0024 – 0301 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0071 – 0307 (7 min)
47 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today citing the global economic outlook has deteriorated in recent weeks as several downside risks have been realized. The market reacted by spiking downward. The spike did not cross any SMAs or Pivots, so it was free to dive. Still keep an eye on the range chart. After hitting the peak at 1.0024, it retreated and hovered between 1.0035 and 1.0044 for 4 sec then fell again. I would set up an exit at the PP line at 1.0022, then close manually at about 1.0030 when it was not hit. The reversal was quick and exceeded the drop.