3/18/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.5%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7711
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7731 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7719 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7727 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7709 – 0834 (4 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7738 – 0849 (19 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7704 – 0920 (50 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7690 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7731 (on the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7731 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7720 – 11 ticks (0.7710 if patient)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7714 (just below the R1 Pivot

Notes: Good setup with Rtl sales conflicting with the CPI. The spike was 20 ticks, so if you chose to place the short entry at 0.7732 or 7733, it would not have filled, but there was opportunity to shift it lower during the hovering at the top. Quick reversal for 12 ticks with another 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the 50 SMA. Then a nice 2nd peak followed by a reversal.

2/21/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.8948 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8927 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8968 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))41 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8955 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8979 – 0835:13 (6 min)
)))-42 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8958 – 0849 (19 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8938 (just below the LOD) / 0.8929 (below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8957 (just above the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.8968 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on the core reading and on the less influential regular CPI reading, but fell well short on the concurrently released retail sales report. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was large, shooting down 21 ticks to cross the S3 Pivot, then promptly reversing. The short move would have filled both of your short entries and peaked about 2 ticks below the outer bottom tier. Then it would have retreated strongly, reclaiming 41 ticks in 41 sec. If the upper trap bracket was left alone, it would have filled and let you walk away with 29 ticks profit on at least 2 contracts. Results would vary depending upon the exit, but the S2 Pivot would be a good target. The conflicting news aided the conditions as the bearish retail #s drove it short, then the bullish CPI reversed it long and sustained the reaction. It eventually eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot, then chopped between the S2 and S2 Mid Pivots for about 12 min before falling to nearly reach the 3 major SMAs on top of each other on the :19 bar, then it pulled back up and traded sideways.

4/17/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.4%
CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION -FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9068 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9085 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9074 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9084 – 0830:55 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9076 – 0836 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9087 – 0841 (11 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9075 – 0916 (46 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9058 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.9049 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.9078 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.9087 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and mildly exceeded the forecast on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused a long spike of 17 ticks that crossed the 200 SMA and PP Pivot, then a quick reversal of 9 ticks after 25 sec. The long move would have filled your inner tier then continued to rise for 8 ticks as it would have missed the outer tier by 2 ticks. Then it would have briefly given you 4 ticks of profit as it returned to the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back to hover between 2-4 ticks in the red for about 20 sec. Move to stop to 5 ticks and move the profit target to the PP Pivot at 77. The stop would have filled. You could have also been patient and waited for the fall back to the PP Pivot later on the :36 bar and exited with +1 tick. After the reversal, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, then fell for a slow reversal of 12 ticks in 35 min, back to the 100 SMA.

6/20/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.2%
CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9226 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9256 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))30 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9239 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9253 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.9281 – 0854 (24 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.9268 – 0906 (36 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9208 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9246 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on all fronts as both CPI readings were 0.3% stronger than expected and the retail sales readings were also very strong. This caused a long spike of 30 ticks that nearly reached the R3 Pivot, then a quick reversal of 17 ticks after 3 sec. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The long move would have filled your tier at about 0.9246 with 10 ticks of heat initially, then reversed to give you a brief opportunity to exit with about 3-4 ticks in the opening seconds. After that it would have chopped on either side of the fill point to allow an exit between 1 tick of profit and 4 ticks loss. With the strongly biased results, get out quickly before it climbs for a 2nd peak, or reverse the trade and wait for the ensuing rally as it continued to climb for another 25 ticks in the next 23 min to reach the R4 Pivot. Then it fell 13 ticks in 12 min to the R4 Mid Pivot.

8/22/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.1%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.9119 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9100 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9126 – 0831:06 (1 min)
)))26 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.9120 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.9131 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9101 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9139 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast across the board on the CPI readins, but strongly exceeded the forecast on the concurrently released Retail sales report by 1.1% and 0.8%. This caused a short spike of 19 ticks that eclipsed the S2 Pivot after 8 sec, then a fairly quick reversal of 26 ticks after 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The short move would have filled your tier at 0.9101 for an ideal entry with 1 tick of heat, then reversed to give you an opportunity to exit with up to 25 ticks with ease late in the :31 bar. With the very bipolar report, wait for it to at least return to the origin, and test the SMAs before considering exiting the trade. After the reversal, it pulled back for 6 ticks, then rallied another 11 ticks 1 min later. Then it traded sideways.