9/19/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – STOPPED (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9090 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9142 – 0830:40 (1 min)
)))52 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9128 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9147 – 0831:57 (2 min)
)))19 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9135 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9167 – 0852 (22 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 0.9138 – 0911 (41 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9071 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9109 (No SMA / Pivot Near)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast strongly across the board on the CPI readings, but fell short of the forecast on the concurrently released Wholesale sales report by 1.1%. This caused a decisive long spike of 52 ticks that eclipsed the HOD after 5 sec, then kept stepping higher to the R1 Pivot. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The long move would have filled your tier at 0.9109, then hit the stop 5 sec later for a 15 tick loss with no slippage. It is odd that we did not see a big reversal on this with the conflict. It kept climbing to a 2nd peak of 25 more ticks after 22 min to the R2 Pivot, then fell for 29 ticks in 19 min to the R1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways.

11/21/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER(STOPPED)
Anchor Point @ 0.8877 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8911 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))34 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8902 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8931 – 0836 (6 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.8894 – 0923 (53 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8865 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.8857 (on the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8888 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.8896 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1% on the core reading and 0.4% on the broader reading. This caused an abnormally large decisive spike of 34 ticks in the first second that started just above the 50 SMA and rose to cross the R3 Pivot. Unfortunately this would have filled both short tiers and the stops for a loss of about 40-50 total ticks. It only reversed 9 ticks shortly after the peak before continuing to ascend for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in the next 5 min. It crossed the R4 Mid Pivot then reversed 37 ticks in the next 53 min to the 100 SMA.

2/26/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.4%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8018 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8050 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8028 – 0831:10 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8044 – 0838 (8 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7987 – 0905 (35 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 0.8015 – 0923 (53 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8006 (just below the S2 Pivot / LOD) / 0.7999 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8028 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.8038 (just above the 200 SMA, on the OOD)

Notes: Report slightly exceeded the forecast on the core reading and also exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading. This caused a big long spike of 32 ticks in 9 sec to reach the R1 Mid Pivot, then reverse. This would have filled both short entries with an average short position at 0.8033. It reversed and hovered about 5 ticks in the red initially near the PP Pivot, then it pulled back and reversed further on the :32 bar. With no other news, the 200 SMA and PP Pivot acting as resistance, you can be patient and wait for a larger reversal. In this case it would have allowed about 3 ticks exit where it hovered early in the :32 bar or 6 ticks early in the :33 bar. After that it pulled back 16 ticks in 6 min to the PP Pivot before reversing 57 ticks in 27 min to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 28 ticks in 18 min to the 100 SMA.

4/17/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.5%
CPI Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.8214 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8248 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))34 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8232 – 0831:14 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8267 – 0834 (4 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.8235 – 0852 (22 min)
32 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.8159 – 1128 (178 min)
108 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8197 (on the OOD)
Short entry – 0.8232 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on the core reading by 0.3%and exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading. The concurrently released Retail Sales report strongly exceeded the forecast on both the core and broader readings to cause a larger than normal long spike of 34 ticks. This would have filled your short entry at 0.8232 unless you had positive slippage for a higher fill. Then it would have hit the 15 tick stop loss at the top to the tick. If positively slipped, you may have contained the heat and been able to watch it reverse to a breakeven exit in 40-70 sec. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks in 2 min after crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 18 min to the old HOD position. After that it continued to step lower for another 76 ticks in 2.5 hrs to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6/19/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.4%
CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8143 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8129 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8161 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8140 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8147 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))7 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8125 – 0835 (5 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.8135 – 0841 (11 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8123 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.8160 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: CPI Report exceeded the forecast on both CPI readings and fell short of the forecast on the retail sales. This caused a perfect whipsaw on the conflicting news that fell 14 ticks immediately, then reversed 32 ticks (18 ticks above the origin) 7 sec later. The initial move would have been too small to hit the tier, but the following long move would have filled the short entry as long as it was 0.8161 or lower. It pulled back 21 ticks and hovered below the 50 SMA to allow about 17 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 26 sec before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 6 min to the 13 SMA.