Canadian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 01.20.12

Core CPI Comments Off

Jan 202012

1/20/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.2%
Core CPI Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.1%
CPI Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9830
1st Peak @ 0.9807 – 0202 (2 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.9827 – 0206 (6 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report falling well short of the forecast for both the core and regular CPI readings. This caused a spike downward of 23 ticks, that crossed the 200 SMA at the origin and briefly dipped below the S2 pivot line. The reversal reclaimed most of the spike in 4 minutes after the peak was hit.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 01.17.12

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jan 172012

1/17/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 0.9831
1st Peak @ 0.9847 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9821 – 0404 (4 min)
26 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today citing continuing global economic gloom, and moderate growth in Canada, but a forecast a faster Canadian recovery than expected. The market reacted with a small spike upward, then indecision. The upward spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and peaked at the S1 line. Exit at about 0.9844 after it hovered in that area for 7 seconds before reversing. Keep an eye on the following candles for a long term trend. In this case, the reaction become indecisive with a small overall downward trend, but would not be safe to enter another trade.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 01.06.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 062012

1/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 17.8K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 17.5K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.4%
Rate Actual:7.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9786
1st Peak @ 0.9765 – 0201 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9757 – 0207 (7 min)
29 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 0.9767 – 0211 (11 min)
10 ticks

Notes: The jobs report basically matched the forecast while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1%. This caused a spike downward of 21 ticks, crossing all three major SMAs and the S3 line near the origin. With no other solid support to encounter, you would be wise to ride this report until you see arresting movement to the drop. With the :04 – :06 candles moving sideways and presenting a double bottom, that would be a safe place to exit. Then the :07 candle dropped for a few more ticks before the reversal recaptured 10 ticks in 4 minutes.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 12.20.11

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 202011

12/20/2011 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.2%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9643
1st Peak @ 0.9632 – 0210 (10 min)
11 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 0.9649 – 0244 (44 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Moderately weak report falling short of the forecast for both the core and regular CPI readings. This caused a spike downward of 11 ticks that had to cross the 200 SMA about halfway down. Even though this is a small moving report with little divergence from the forecast, the 200 SMA clearly restricted the drop along with the Holiday season. The reversal recovered 17 ticks in a very lightly traded market over 34 minutes.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 12.06.11

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Dec 062011

12/6/2011 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9761
1st Peak @ 0.9783 – 0401 (1 min)
22 ticks

“Final” Peak @ 0.9836 – 0438 (38 min)
75 ticks – 2x top

Reversal to 0.9820 – 0451 (51 min)
16 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today, citing an upbeat forecast of growth in Canada and the US with a bleaker outlook for Europe. With a small expectation of another rate cut, the market reacted strongly heading into a measured upward fan. This was not apparent though after the first 3 min with the 200 SMA providing resistance. I would exit on the 0402 candle after when it started to retreat without hitting the 200 SMA. As a long term reaction is common on this report, keep an eye on how it interacts with the 200 from the sideline. Then on the :09 or :10 candle it would be safe to enter another long trade after it has safely cleared the 200 SMA, then stay in until after the big green candle at :20. Sure you could eke out a few more ticks by staying in longer, but the risk vs reward grows. Notice it did achieve smaller and higher peaks after :22, but it became range bound between 0.9820 and 0.9845, while the 13 crossed the 20 and the MACD reversed.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 12.02.11

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Dec 022011

12/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 18.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-18.6K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual:7.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9864
1st Peak @ 0.9823 – 0201 (1 min)
41 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9821 – 0208 (8 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9855 – 0226 (26 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Overall negative report showing the exact opposite result of jobs lost compared to the forecast, and an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1%. This caused a spike downward of 41 ticks, crossing all three major SMAs and the R1 line at various points on its path downward. The :01 candle could not sustain its drop and retreated back to the 200 SMA. Still it is common for this report to achieve a peak on a later candle, so it would be okay to wait it out. The :08 candle dipped 2 more ticks lower than the original peak. The reversal saw another dip before recovering most of the drop nearly 20 minutes later and having little trouble crossing the SMAs.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 11.18.11

Core CPI Comments Off

Nov 182011

11/18/2011 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9717
1st Peak @ 0.9730 – 0201 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9722 – 0206 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9758 – 0234 (34 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.9721 – 0333 (93 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Moderately strong report exceeding the forecast for both the core and regular CPI readings. This caused a spike upward of 13 ticks, going with the rally trend. It crossed no SMAs. After a small reversal, it geared up for a slower, but deliberate 2nd peak of 41 ticks in the next 28 min. The final reversal gained 37 ticks crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, but was painstakingly slow taking about 1 hour.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 11.04.11

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 042011

11/4/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0100 HI time / 0700 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 16.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-54.0K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual:7.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9842
1st Peak @ 0.9772 – 0102 (2 min)
70 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9756 – 0115 (15 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 0.9779 – 0147 (47 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Very negative report showing a big loss of jobs lost compared to the forecast of a moderate gain, and an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1%. This caused a spike downward of 70 ticks, crossing all three major SMAs near the origin, and the S1 line closer to the bottom. The :01 candle was able to hold its value and the :02 candle dropped another 11 ticks. It is common for this report to achieve a peak on a later candle, so it would be okay to wait it out. The :14 candle would be a great place to get out after seeing a large red candle. The reversal was slow and laborious yielding 23 ticks, but taking over 30 minutes.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 10.25.11

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Oct 252011

10/25/2011 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9919
1st Peak @ 0.9870 – 0308 (8 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9738 – 0407 (67 min)
181 ticks – 2x bottom

Reversal to 0.9792 – 0421 (81 min)
54 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today, cut its growth outlook for the Canadian economy and removed a reference to withdrawing stimulus as the global economy slows. The country’s economy will grow more slowly than projected, and take longer to return to its capacity level. The market reacted by diving into a downward fan. This was not apparent though after the first 8 min when a short term reversal happened. It would be prudent to exit after :06 candle, then watch the market. After seeing the reversal peter out on the :21 candle, get in short. You could stay in until :38 with the long string of red candles, or wait it out until the two big red candles at the end of the fan. The distance from the 13 was large, and the MACD was very negative after more than an hour of falling, so a reversal is likely then. The reversal delivered 54 ticks in 14 min quickly. After that a slower corrective upward trend took over.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 10.21.11

Core CPI Comments Off

Oct 212011

10/21/2011 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0100 HI time / 0700 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9798
1st Peak @ 0.9822 – 0101 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9793 – 0105 (5 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9848 – 0131 (31 min)
50 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 0.9825 – 0144 (44 min)
23 ticks (3x bottom)

Notes: Healthy strong report exceeding the forecast for both the core and regular CPI readings. This caused a spike upward of 24 ticks, going with the rally trend. It crossed no SMAs, although it shed most of its gains on the latter half of the :01 candle. The initial reversal recovered more ticks than the spike and was achieved in only 5 min. Then it geared up for a slower, but deliberate 2nd peak of 50 ticks in the next 26 min. The final reversal recaptured 23 ticks in 13 min with a triple bottom.

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