Canadian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 8.22.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Sep 052014

8/22/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.1%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.9119 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9100 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9126 – 0831:06 (1 min)
)))26 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.9120 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.9131 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9101 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9139 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast across the board on the CPI readins, but strongly exceeded the forecast on the concurrently released Retail sales report by 1.1% and 0.8%. This caused a short spike of 19 ticks that eclipsed the S2 Pivot after 8 sec, then a fairly quick reversal of 26 ticks after 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The short move would have filled your tier at 0.9101 for an ideal entry with 1 tick of heat, then reversed to give you an opportunity to exit with up to 25 ticks with ease late in the :31 bar. With the very bipolar report, wait for it to at least return to the origin, and test the SMAs before considering exiting the trade. After the reversal, it pulled back for 6 ticks, then rallied another 11 ticks 1 min later. Then it traded sideways.

6C 09-14 (1 Min) 9.3.2014

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Sep 182014

9/3/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.9163
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9148 – 1000:11 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9185 – 1002:24 (3 min)
)))37 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.9177 – 1004 (4 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9190 – 1006 (6 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.9168 – 1015 (15 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.9196 – 1133 (93 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9186 (just above the R2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9136 (In between the S1 Pivot and LOD )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have been too small to reach the trap tier so cancel the order. It initially fell 15 ticks to cross the PP Pivot and fall 1 tick short of the OOD/ S1 MID Pivot, then reversed to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot for 37 ticks in a little over 2 min. This did not leave any hovering or opportunity to manually enter after the initial spike. After a small Pullback of 8 ticks on the next bar, it reversed for 13 ticks to extend the LOD and establish a new high. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 9 min to the R1 Pivot and 200 SMA. After that it reversed for 28 ticks to nearly reach the R3 Mid Pivot in the next 80 min.

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 9.19.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/19/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – STOPPED (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9090 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9142 – 0830:40 (1 min)
)))52 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9128 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9147 – 0831:57 (2 min)
)))19 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9135 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9167 – 0852 (22 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 0.9138 – 0911 (41 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9071 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9109 (No SMA / Pivot Near)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast strongly across the board on the CPI readings, but fell short of the forecast on the concurrently released Wholesale sales report by 1.1%. This caused a decisive long spike of 52 ticks that eclipsed the HOD after 5 sec, then kept stepping higher to the R1 Pivot. Due to the double booked report, we only recommended the outer tier for this report. The long move would have filled your tier at 0.9109, then hit the stop 5 sec later for a 15 tick loss with no slippage. It is odd that we did not see a big reversal on this with the conflict. It kept climbing to a 2nd peak of 25 more ticks after 22 min to the R2 Pivot, then fell for 29 ticks in 19 min to the R1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways.

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 10.22.2014

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Oct 242014

10/22/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8849
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8832 – 1000:00 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8879 – 1000:11 (1 min)
)))47 ticks

)))Continued Reversal to 0.8894 – 1000:28 (1 min)
)))62 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8873 – 1000:55 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.8924 – 1008 (8 min)
51 ticks

Pullback to 0.8897 – 1017 (17 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.8929 – 1027 (27 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 0.8898 – 1054 (54 min)
31 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8834 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8822 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8863 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.8873 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected and changed their language to a more hawkish tune. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have fallen 17 ticks to hit the inner long entry perfectly with 2 ticks to spare, then reversed only 11 sec later to fill the inner short entry at about 0.8863 for 39 ticks. It would have also filled your outer short entry at 0.8873 unless you cancelled it prior to the upward reversal at 11 sec. [If filled on the outer short entry] Since it chopped sideways on either side of the fill point for about 5 sec, be careful here and look to exit quickly near breakeven or better before it climbs higher. It continued to climb to 0.8894 for another 15 ticks and would have barely stopped you if you did not intervene. Even in the worst case scenario you would have made 39 ticks then lost 20 ticks for a net of 19 ticks. After reaching 0.8894, it pulled back 21 ticks before the :01 bar expired back to the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it reversed 51 ticks to the R2 Mid pivot in the next 7 min. After that it pulled back to the PP Pivot in 9 min before reversing to the R2 Mid Pivot in 10 min. Then it pulled back 31 ticks to the PP Pivot and traded sideways between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots.

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 10.10.2014

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 022014

10/10/2014 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 18.7K
Employment Change Actual: 74.1K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.0%
Rate Actual: 6.8%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8905
Errant Spike @ 0.8892 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-13 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8947 – 0830:00 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.8926 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.8946 – 0844 (14 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.8913 – 0926 (56 min)
33 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.8897 – 1031 (121 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Very impressive report with about 55K more jobs created than the forecast along with a 0,2% improvement in the rate. Unfortunately, this caused a small short spike in the wrong direction for 13 ticks to the S2 Pivot then a quick reversal for the true spike of 42 ticks in the same second to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. This would have filled short at about 0.8895 then reversed and stopped at about 0.8917 for a 22 tick loss with 7 ticks of slippage. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in the next bar to the OOD before pulling back 20 ticks for a double top in the next 12 min. After that it reversed 33 ticks in 42 min to the S1 Pivot, then another 16 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot after another hour.

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 10.17.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Nov 022014

10/17/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.0%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8879 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8888 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8873 – 0831:33 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8906 – 0851 (21 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.8874 – 0917 (47 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8867 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.8859 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.8887 (just above the 100/200 SMA) / 0.8897 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1% on both readings. This caused a good setup for the Trap Trade that climbed 9 ticks in 15 sec to the 100/200 SMAs then fell 15 ticks. This would have filled your inner short entry with 1 tick to spare, then allowed about 12 ticks to be captured where it hovered midway through the :32 bar. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of another 18 ticks in 19 min to extend the HOD. Then it fell 32 ticks in 26 min for a double bottom that correlated with the initial reversal.

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 11.21.2014

Core CPI Comments Off

Dec 282014

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 11_21_2014

11/21/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER(STOPPED)
Anchor Point @ 0.8877 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8911 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))34 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8902 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8931 – 0836 (6 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.8894 – 0923 (53 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8865 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.8857 (on the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8888 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.8896 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1% on the core reading and 0.4% on the broader reading. This caused an abnormally large decisive spike of 34 ticks in the first second that started just above the 50 SMA and rose to cross the R3 Pivot. Unfortunately this would have filled both short tiers and the stops for a loss of about 40-50 total ticks. It only reversed 9 ticks shortly after the peak before continuing to ascend for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in the next 5 min. It crossed the R4 Mid Pivot then reversed 37 ticks in the next 53 min to the 100 SMA.

6C 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jan 052015

12/3/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8775
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))Chopping between 0.8769 and 0.8788 until – 1000:17 (1 min)
)))+13 / -6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8757 – 1000:52 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8807 – 1009 (9 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.8785 – 1013 (13 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8811 – 1038 (38 min)
36 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8759 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8750 (in between the LOD and the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8790 (in between the R1 and R1 Mid Pivots) / 0.8798 (just above the HOD)

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused a good whipsaw that would have fallen just a couple of ticks short of the inner short entry. It was very choppy in the first 17 sec with a span of nearly 20 ticks, but just inside the settings. With the R1 Mid Pivot providing the resistance for the top end of the span, you could have manually moved the short entry down about 5-6 ticks. This would have worked perfectly if done within 7 sec of the release then allowed up to 28 ticks to be captured late in the bar. After the reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks in the next 8 min, nearly reaching the R2 Mid Pivot as it extended the HOD. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 4 min to the 20 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a final peak of 4 more ticks in 25 more min.

6C 03-15 (1 Min) 1.21.2015

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/21/2015 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 0.75%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED (DOWNWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 0.8277
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8143 – 1000:12 (1 min)
)))-134 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8178 – 1000:17 (1 min)
)))35 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @0.8110 – 1024 (24 min)
167 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8067 – 1147 (107 min)
210 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8262 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8249 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 0.8292 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8305 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: The BOC surprised all and cut rates by 25 BP to 0.75%. This naturally caused a large short reaction since it was unexpected, a rate cut had not been executed in about 5 yrs, and it served as notice the economy was weaker than forecast. Unfortunately this would have been a losing trade for obvious reasons. The initial reaction would have stepped lower in about 6 sec to fill the inner, then outer long entries, then the stop for a loss of about 50 total ticks on the combined entry. We have the risk set at 3 for this report due to the possibility of this scenario, but it is rare. After the 1st peak was achieved in 12 sec to cross the S3 Mid Pivot, it reversed 35 ticks in 5 sec, then continued to fall and step lower. It achieved a 2nd peak of 33 more ticks in 23 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Then it grabbed another 43 ticks in the next 83 min as it crossed the S4 Mid Pivot. This is a good scenario to short the reversal tops at 1005 when it climbed up to the S3 Mid Pivot or the stagnation above the 13/20 SMA at 1030 – 1035.

6C 03-15 (1 Min) 1.23.2015

Core CPI Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/23/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.3%
Core CPI Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.5%
CPI Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.8025 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8041 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8020 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8051 – 0830:33 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8033 – 0832:18 (3 min)
)))18 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.8073 – 0858 (28 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.8043 – 0923 (53 min)
30 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8002 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8046 (just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and fell short of the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading while the concurrent retail sales report was strong. This caused an indecisive reaction that was a bit more tame in the swings than we were expecting, probably due to the match on the core CPI. The initial long move would have been a few ticks short of the 200 SMA and inner short order. Then the reversal would have fallen just below the origin. You probably cancelled the order after 20-30 sec as is recommended, but if left on the chart, it would have filled short at 33 sec, then allowed about 10 ticks to be captured on the reversal. The bullish retail sales won out and caused a long follow through for a final peak of 48 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot after 25 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks to the 200/100 SMAs in 25 min.

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