Canadian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

Core CPI Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/26/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: -0.4%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8018 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8050 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8028 – 0831:10 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8044 – 0838 (8 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7987 – 0905 (35 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 0.8015 – 0923 (53 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8006 (just below the S2 Pivot / LOD) / 0.7999 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.8028 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.8038 (just above the 200 SMA, on the OOD)

Notes: Report slightly exceeded the forecast on the core reading and also exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading. This caused a big long spike of 32 ticks in 9 sec to reach the R1 Mid Pivot, then reverse. This would have filled both short entries with an average short position at 0.8033. It reversed and hovered about 5 ticks in the red initially near the PP Pivot, then it pulled back and reversed further on the :32 bar. With no other news, the 200 SMA and PP Pivot acting as resistance, you can be patient and wait for a larger reversal. In this case it would have allowed about 3 ticks exit where it hovered early in the :32 bar or 6 ticks early in the :33 bar. After that it pulled back 16 ticks in 6 min to the PP Pivot before reversing 57 ticks in 27 min to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 28 ticks in 18 min to the 100 SMA.

6C 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/4/2015 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7983
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7962 – 0959:59 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8024 – 1001:25 (1 min)
)))62 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8002 – 1004 (4 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.8036 – 1022 (22 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7966 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.7958 (in between the S2 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.7999 (in between the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 0.8010 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: After the surprise rate cut last meeting, the BOC maintained rates at 0.75% and stated CPI inflation has fallen due to the drop in oil prices. This caused a short dip of 21 ticks 1 sec early followed by a reversal of 62 ticks in the next 82 sec. This would have filled your inner long entry with about 4 ticks to spare, then reversed and hit your opposite short entry 1 sec later for about 30-35 ticks. Be sure to cancel the order after the short entry flattens your order with the outer tiers still pending to be safe. If not the outer short entry would have filled after 13 sec, then allowed a handful of ticks to be captured in the next 30 sec before it climbed another 15 ticks (you would have been fortunate on this occasion due to the resistance of the PP Pivot). After that it pulled back 22 ticks in 2 min to the OOD before stepping higher for a 34 tick reversal in 18 min. After that it traded sideways for about an hour and continued to slowly step higher.

6C 03-15 (1 Min) 3.13.2015

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/13/2015 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: -3.5K
Employment Change Actual: -1.0K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.7%
Rate Actual: 6.8%
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7841
1st Peak @ 0.7867 – 0830:00 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.7824 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-43 ticks

Notes: Fortunately this report gave us a warning with extreme chaos 9 sec before the report at 08:29:51. This resulted in a whipsaw with a span of nearly 40 ticks in 4 sec, so cancel the order by unchecking the “enabled” button on the strategy tab in the control center. The results were conflicting with the jobs narrowly beating the forecast offset by an uptick in the unemployment rate by 0.1% to cause the whipsaw on the open of the 0831 bar.

6C 06-15 (1 Min) 3.20.2015

Core CPI Comments Off

Mar 302015

3/20/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.6%
Core CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.7%
CPI Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7876 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7861 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7886 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7857 – 0830:49 (1 min)
)))-29 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7864 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7850 – 0835 (5 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.7875 – 0851 (21 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7856 (just above the OOD/LOD/ R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7894 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading. The concurrently released Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast on both the core and broader readings to cause indecision. This caused an initial short spike of 15 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot. This would have fallen short of the long entry by about 5 ticks and was too brief and fleeting to manually move the tier up to gain an entry, so cancel the order. It reversed after 1 sec for 25 ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 29 ticks in the next 47 sec to nearly reach the OOD. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 1 min to cross the R1 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 3 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 25 ticks in 16 min to the Major SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot. It continued to climb for a few hours for other market reasons.

6C 06-15 (1 Min) 4.10.2015

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/10/2015 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: -0.5K
Employment Change Actual: 28.7K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 6.9%
Rate Actual: 6.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7894
1st Peak @ 0.7933 – 0830:02 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.7908 – 0830:28 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.7929 – 0833 (3 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.7908 – 0842 (12 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7947 – 0947 (77 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.7936 – 1001 (91 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Very impressive report with over 29K more jobs created than the forecast along with a 0.1% improvement in the rate. This caused a large long spike of 39 ticks immediately that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.7910 with 9 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 20 ticks as it peaked and hovered for about 6 sec near the top before reversing. It reversed 25 ticks in 26 sec crossing the 200 SMA, then pulled back 21 ticks in the next 2 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 21 ticks in 9 min to the 20 SMA before climbing for a slow developing final peak of 14 more ticks in about an hour. It reached the PP Pivot then reversed 11 ticks in 14 min to the 50 SMA.

6C 06-15 (1 Min) 4.15.2015

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/15/2015 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7972 (shift up 4 ticks to 0.7976)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7991 – 0959:55 (0 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7972 – 0959:57 (0 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8020 – 1000:06 (1 min)
)))48 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7979 – 1000:08 (1 min)
)))-41 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.8083 – 1141 (101 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 0.8064 – 1152 (112 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7961 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.7950 (just above the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.7990 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.8002 (just above the OOD)

Notes: After the surprise rate cut in January, the BOC maintained rates at 0.75% and stated CPI inflation has fallen and remains stable while global growth is expected to strengthen. This caused an overall long reaction that was accompanied by a few whipsaws along the way. Shift the anchor point up about 4 ticks after movement in the middle to late part of the :00 bar. We initially saw a long spike of 15 ticks to the PP Pivot that would have filled the inner short entry with 1 tick to spare. Then it backed off and chopped between the 50 SMA and PP Pivot for 6 secs. You could have exited here with 0-10 ticks or waited and seen your outer short entry fill a few sec later. The 20 tick stop would have barely contained the move, then you would have had a brief opportunity to exit with about 4 – 16 total ticks before it continued to ascend. As we recommend exiting on the early reversals and not carrying an open trade for a longer term on central bank news, exit quickly. If not you would have seen profit turn into loss, then eventually take out the stop. It continued to step higher several times until the eventual final peak of 107 total ticks after 100 min to reach the R2 Pivot, Then it reversed 19 ticks in 11 min to the R2 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA.

6C 06-15 (1 Min) 4.17.2015

Core CPI Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/17/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.5%
CPI Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.8214 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8248 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))34 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8232 – 0831:14 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8267 – 0834 (4 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.8235 – 0852 (22 min)
32 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.8159 – 1128 (178 min)
108 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8197 (on the OOD)
Short entry – 0.8232 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on the core reading by 0.3%and exceeded the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading. The concurrently released Retail Sales report strongly exceeded the forecast on both the core and broader readings to cause a larger than normal long spike of 34 ticks. This would have filled your short entry at 0.8232 unless you had positive slippage for a higher fill. Then it would have hit the 15 tick stop loss at the top to the tick. If positively slipped, you may have contained the heat and been able to watch it reverse to a breakeven exit in 40-70 sec. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 19 more ticks in 2 min after crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 32 ticks in 18 min to the old HOD position. After that it continued to step lower for another 76 ticks in 2.5 hrs to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6C 06-15 (1 Min) 5.22.2015

Core CPI Comments Off

Jun 062015

5/22/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.8195 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8174 – 0830:10 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8180 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8154 – 0833 (3 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.8164 – 0836 (6 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8131 – 0913 (43 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 0.8147 – 0932 (62 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8177 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8212 (in between the HOD / R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: CPI Report matched on the core reading and fell short of the forecast by 0.2% on the broader reading. The concurrently released Retail Sales report was conflicting with the core reading falling short while the broader reading exceeded the forecast. This caused a quick short spike of 21 ticks in 10 sec followed by only a 6 tick reversal. This would have filled your long entry at 0.8177 then briefly allowed 1-3 ticks to be captured before slowly drifting lower. With the results somewhat conflicting it would be safe to see what the reversal can get but when the S1 Mid Pivot prevented any higher bounce, look to exit near breakeven. It continued to fall another 20 ticks for the 2nd peak as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot followed by a 10 tick reversal. Then it fell another 23 ticks for the final peak to the S3 Mid Pivot in 37 min before reversing 16 ticks in 19 min to the 50 SMA.

6C 06-15 (1 Min) 5.27.2015

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jun 062015

5/27/2015 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.75%
Actual: 0.75%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.8031 (shift up 7 ticks to 0.8038)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8024 – 1000:08 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8045 – 1000:37 (1 min)
)))21 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.08017 – 1003 (3 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.8043 – 1020 (20 min)
26 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8002 – 1115 (75 min)
36 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8024 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.8011 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8051 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.8063 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: After the surprise rate cut in January, the BOC continued to maintain rates at 0.75%. This resulted in a whipsaw as expected. Shift the anchor point up about 7 ticks after movement in the middle to late part of the :00 bar. We initially saw a short spike of 14 ticks to the 200 SMA that would have just fallen short of the inner long entry by 1 tick. There was an opportunity to shift the order up to get an entry just above the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 29 sec to allow 15+ ticks to be captured above the OOD. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 2 min as it crossed the 100 SMA / S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 26 ticks in 17 min to the OOD before falling for a final peak of 15 more ticks in 55 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot.

6C 09-15 (1 Min) 6.19.2015

Core CPI Comments Off

Jul 062015

6/19/2015 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.4%
CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8143 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8129 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8161 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8140 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8147 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))7 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8125 – 0835 (5 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.8135 – 0841 (11 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8123 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.8160 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: CPI Report exceeded the forecast on both CPI readings and fell short of the forecast on the retail sales. This caused a perfect whipsaw on the conflicting news that fell 14 ticks immediately, then reversed 32 ticks (18 ticks above the origin) 7 sec later. The initial move would have been too small to hit the tier, but the following long move would have filled the short entry as long as it was 0.8161 or lower. It pulled back 21 ticks and hovered below the 50 SMA to allow about 17 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 26 sec before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 6 min to the 13 SMA.

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