Canadian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 10.23.2013

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/23/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9668
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9680 – 1000:02 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9629 – 1000:10 (1 min)
)))-51 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9648 – 1001:27 (2 min)
)))19 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9607 – 1052 (52 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 0.9625 – 1131 (91 min)
18 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected citing that the global economy continues to expand broadly as expected, but left out previous statutory language about the need for future interest rate hikes. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused a relatively decisive and short move as it was deciphered as dovish. The initial move long was only about 12 ticks to reach the S2 Mid Pivot, then the following reversal fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and reach the S3 Pivot for a total drop of 51 ticks. A trap trade setup of 20-30 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use the S2 Pivot at 0.9668 as the anchor point. The S1 Mid Pivot at 0.9698 would be an ideal place for the short entry and about halfway between the S3 Pivot and S3 Mid Pivot at about 0.9638 would be ideal place for the long entry. The reversal would have filled the long entry at 7 sec into the :01 bar, then you would have had 2 opportunities to exit with up to 10 ticks when it retreated to the S3 Mid Pivot while seeing no more than 9 ticks of heat. Not the best setup for the Trap Trade, but this report is the most challenging with little consistency in the size of the reactions. After the :02 bar, it achieved another reversal of 41 ticks to reach the S4 Pivot 50 min later, before giving back 18 ticks in the next 40 min to reach the 100 SMA.

6C 12-13 (1 Min) 10.11.2013

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/11/2013 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 15.3K
Employment Change Actual: 11.9K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.1%
Rate Actual: 6.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9602
1st Peak @ 0.9623 – 0829:58 (0 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.9589 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-34 ticks

Pullback to 0.9621 – 0830:11 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.9602 – 0921 (51 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Conflicting report showing 3.4K less jobs created than expected with a 0.2% improvement in the unemployment rate caused an indecisive reaction on the 6C as it spiked long, short, then long again with dramatic swings on the :30 and :31 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9613 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak 10 ticks higher and reverse in a flash down to the S1 Pivot. You would have been stopped out with about 5 ticks of slippage for a 20 tick loss. As it rebounded long and settled down, the market seemed to like the drop in the rate. It tested the R1 Pivot a few times, then reversed for 19 ticks in the next 45 min to nearly reach the OOD. Unfortunately, when the news is conflicting we get these reactions but there is cause for the bad reaction.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 8.9.2013

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Dec 272013

8/9/2013 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 6.2K
Employment Change Actual: -39.4K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.1%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9707
1st Peak @ 0.9655 – 0831 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 0.9670 – 0846 (16 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9650 – 0928 (58 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 0.9700 – 1018 (108 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report showing a loss of nearly 40K jobs and an uptick in the unemployment rate. This caused the 6C to spike short for 52 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9697 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall like a rock. Look to exit near 0.9660 or the PP Pivot at 0.9657 for up to 40 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed 15 ticks back to the 13/20 SMAs in 15 min, then fell for a modest 2nd peak of 5 more ticks at the bottom of the hour. Then the reversal took over to reclaim 50 ticks in the next 50 min ,as it fought through every SMA and the R1 Mid Pivot to nearly come back up to the origin.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 9.4.2013

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Oct 232013

9/4/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9508
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9522 – 1000:10 (1 min)
)))14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9512 – 1000:13 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9527 – 1000:56 (1 min)
)))15 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.9532 – 1004 (4 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9517 – 1010 (10 min)
15 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected citing that the global economy continues to expand broadly as expected, but its dynamic has moderated. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused a relatively decisive and tame long move. The initial move hit the 200 SMA, then backed off to just below the 50 SMA, and peaked above the 200 SMA, but below the R2 Pivot. A trap trade setup of 20-30 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case, use the R1 Pivot at0.9508 as the anchor point. The S1 Mid Pivot at 0.9483 would be an ideal place for the long entry and about halfway between the R2 Pivot and the HOD at about 0.9535 would be ideal place for the short entry. When the initial volatility was too tame to reach the trap settings, cancel the order after about 30 sec. After the final peak was able to achieve 24 ticks, it reversed for 15 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA, then it chopped sideways.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 07.19.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

Aug 092013

7/19/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.2%
Core CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.2%
CPI Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9629
1st Peak @ 0.9614 – 0831 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9622 – 0833 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9607 – 0904 (34 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.9618 – 0928 (58 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9634 – 1035 (125 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and slightly disappointed traders on the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused a safe and tame 15 tick short spike. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9622 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover within 5 ticks of your fill point. Look to exit with about 4 ticks with a profit target. After the :31 bar due to the nearly matching results, little movement was seen. It reversed from the low of the peak for 8 ticks back to the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot, then fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 30 min later. Then the slow developing reversal eventually achieved 27 ticks in the next 90 min.

6C 09-13 (1 Min) 7.17.2013

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jul 302013

7/17/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.9601
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9552 – 0959:59 (0 min)
)))49 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9588 – 1000:03 (1 min)
)))36 ticks
—————-
Extended Reversal to 0.9609 – 1004 (4 min)
57 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected and took notice of central bank action around the globe of easing and stimulus contributing to economic growth. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused an expected indecisive reaction that moved 2 sec early with an initial large short spike of 49 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 31 ticks 4 sec later. On the short move, it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, continued 13 ticks lower, then reversed back to the S1 Pivot quickly. The complete reversal reached the PP Pivot and crossed the 20/13 SMAs. A trap trade setup of 30 ticks offset with a level of support/resistance was recommended. In this case the S2 Mid Pivot at 0.9565 was about 35 ticks away from the center of trading activity and would have been a good place to put a buy limit order with a 20 tick stop. This would have filled easily, then given you an opportunity for 20+ ticks with ease. This was a larger breakout that normal, but the model of a quick and unsustainable spike that reverses soon after remains.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 5.29.2013

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Jun 082013

5/29/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9640
1st Peak @ 0.9621 – 1000 (0 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9652 – 1001 (1 min)
-31 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and took a hawkish tone for the future, implying tighter policy may be needed as the economic expansion progresses. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused an indecisive reaction that moved 2 sec early with an initial short spike of 19 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 31 ticks. On the short move, it crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot, then it reversed to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot, a 31 tick swing in about 21 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 5 ticks of slippage at 0.9628, then seen it reverse quickly to stop you out at 0.9647 with 4 ticks of slippage. This report was raised to a risk rating of “4” after 2 indecisive reports in a row, and now this is the third. The trap trade approach is a worthy proposition for now using a distance of 12-20 ticks.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 5.17.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

May 252013

5/17/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.0%
CPI Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9716
1st Peak @ 0.9673 – 0831 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9714 – 0842 (12 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an unsustainable short reaction. With a bearish market before the report, the market sentiment gave it momentum to seek out the S4 Pivot, but holding that level was too difficult. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9710 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop down quickly and retreat before any profit target would be able to capture it within 3 sec. The remainder of the :31 bar traded close to the fill point to slightly in the red. With the disappointing report and bearish market with plenty of room to the S4 Mid pivot, it was safe to wait on a follow on short move to exit with a few ticks. I managed 6 ticks on the :33 bar, but up to 13 could have been captured. After that it reversed to eclipse the20 SMA in 12 min. Then it attempted a 2nd peak, but could only manage 0.9690 before pulling up and trading sideways.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

May 252013

5/10/2013 Employment Change (0830 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 14.8K
Employment Change Actual: 12.5K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9900
1st Peak @ 0.9916 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.9863 – 0831 (1 min)
-53 ticks

Notes: Slightly negative report but close to matching showing a smaller than expected gain in the number of jobs and no change in the unemployment rate. This caused the 6C to spike long for 16 ticks then reverse for 53 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.9909 with 2 ticks of slippage, then stopped out with about 17 ticks (2 ticks slippage) when it reversed. The nearly matching report is to blame for the double wicker. The long term reaction was bearish as it corrected back up to the 20 SMA, then drifted lower to extend the LOD by 9 ticks an hour after the report.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 4.19.2013

Core CPI Comments Off

May 062013

4/19/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9735
1st Peak @ 0.9727 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9743 – 0831 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and nearly matched the less influential regular CPI reading. This caused an indecisive reaction. With a slightly bearish market before the report, the market sentiment caused it to short first to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD, then it reversed to cross the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9739 with no slippage, then seen it reverse and stop you out with a 9 tick loss on 2 ticks of slippage. After the indecisive :31 bar, it rallied to nearly reach the 200 SMA, then chopped sideways.

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