6C 06-13 (1 Min) 3.27.2013

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-13 (1 Min) 3.27.2013
May 062013
 

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 3_27_2013

3/27/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast:  0.6%
CPI Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9810
1st Peak @ 0.9834 – 0834 (4 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.9814 – 0916 (46 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9806 – 1013 (103 min)
28 ticks

Notes:   Report strongly exceeded the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading.  With a bearish market before the report that had begun to correct, the market sentiment was fairly neutral and trading just above the PP pivot and 200 SMA.  This caused a 24 tick spike that initially eclipsed the HOD and extended it 10 ticks.  The :31 bar saw a decent pullback, but the next 3 bars saw it nearly reach the R1 Pivot.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9820 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it pop up and give you a brief opportunity at 8-10 ticks.  Otherwise, if you had waited you could have gotten out on the following 3 bars with slightly more ticks.  After the peak, it fell, but tried for a 2nd peak.  Failing to go any higher, it reversed in the next 30 min to cross the 50 and nearly reach the 100 SMA.  The extended reversal saw 8 ticks more to reach the PP Pivot 1 hour later.

 

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1.25.2013

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1.25.2013
May 062013
 

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1_25_2013

1/25/2013 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: -0.2%
Core CPI Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast:  -0.2%
CPI Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9922
1st Peak @ 0.9896 – 0831 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9918 – 0841 (11 min)
22 ticks

Notes:   Report fell well short of the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading.  With a bearish market before the report causing a slightly oversold sentiment, the spike was large, but crossing the S3 Pivot made it unsustainable and brought on a quick reversal.  With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9916 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it shoot down and hover between 0.9896 and 0.9908.  I would place a buy limit order at the lower end of the tail (0.9897) and move the stop loss to 0.9913, 2 ticks above the S3 Pivot.  You would get up to 19 ticks. After the peak, the selling momentum ran out and the S3 Pivot pulled it back up for a 22 tick reversal in only 10 min.

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 06-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013
May 062013
 

6C 06-13 (1 Min) 4_17_2013

4/17/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast:  1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9726
1st Peak @ 0.9690 – 1001 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.9751 – 1001 (1 min)
61 ticks

Pullback to 0.9711 – 1145 (105 min)
40 ticks

Notes:  The BOC left interest rates unchanged and cited gradual growth in the US, continued recession in Europe, and stabilizing growth in China.  This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused an indecisive reaction with an initial short spike of 36 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 61 ticks.  On the short move, it eclipsed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD, then it reversed to cross all 3 SMAs and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot.  With JOBB, you would have filled short with 4 ticks of slippage at 0.9715, then seen it briefly hang out in the green for a few sec before reversing to stop you out with a 20 tick loss.  Then it came back to settle close to the origin and drifted slightly lower on the following bars around the S3 Mid Pivot.  Then it chopped sideways.

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 03-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013
May 062013
 

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 3_6_2013

3/6/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast:  1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE – KNIFE SWITCH
Started @ 0.9720
1st Peak @ 0.9728 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9675 – 1001 (1 min)
-53 ticks

Pullback to 0.9707 – 1145 (105 min)
32 ticks

Notes:  The BOC left interest rates unchanged and cited gradual growth in the US, continued recession in Europe, and stabilizing growth in China.  This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but caused an indecisive reaction with an initial long spike of 8 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 53 ticks.  The initial long move was small and abnormal, but will be cause for us to increase the bracket size on the next report.  On the long move, it crossed all 3 major SMAs and eclipsed the PP Pivot, then it reversed to cross the S1 / S2 Pivots and extend the LOD by 34 ticks.  With JOBB, you would have filled long with 1 tick of slippage at 0.9726, then seen it reverse and fill the opposite bracket entry immediately, testing the knife switch.  In my case, trading 6 contracts, I had 2 short stop loss contracts present on the chart, while 4 were killed by logic and all of the 6 long entries were killed.  The additional short entries worked in my favor as they shorted at 0.9713, and I exited at 0.9682 for 31 ticks.  More than likely less contracts would have had no additional stop loss orders apply, but possibly short only which would have benefited.  After the big drop, it slowly pulled back up to 0.9707 in the next 105 min to cross the 50/100 SMAs and reach the 200 SMA.

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1.23.2013

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1.23.2013
May 062013
 

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 1_23_2013

1/23/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast:  1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0060
1st Peak @ 1.0020 – 1002 (2 min)
40 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9983 – 1035 (35 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 1.0003 – 1100 (60 min)
20 ticks

Notes:  The BOC held its overnight interest rate at 1 percent but dramatically revised its projections to say any hike would be further away than previously thought, because of excess capacity, soft inflation and stabilizing household debt.  This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but the bearish outlook caused a large short move of 40 ticks in 2 min. The spike did not cross any SMAs as they were above the price action before the spike, but the PP-S2 Pivots were crossed with ease, to find a short term bottom about halfway between the S2 and S3 Pivots.  With JOBB, you would have filled short with about no slippage at 1.0055, then had an opportunity to get up to 30 ticks as the :01 bar was expiring.  After the 1st peak, there was no interim reversal, as it continued into a fan to achieve another 37 ticks in 33 min.  Then the reversal reclaimed 20 ticks in 25 min to cross the 50 SMA.  After that it traded sideways, in a 15 tick range straddling the 50 SMA.

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 2.8.2013

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 03-13 (1 Min) 2.8.2013
May 052013
 

6C 03-13 (1 Min) 2_8_2013

2/8/2013 Employment Change (0830 EST)
Employment Change Forecast: 4.5K
Employment Change Actual: -21.9K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast:  7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.0%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.9987
1st Peak @ 0.9954 – 0831 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.9973 – 0840 (10 min)
19 ticks

Notes:  Strongly negative report showing a healthy drop in the number of jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate due to less people looking for work.  This caused the 6C to spike short for 33 ticks on the :31 bar.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9977 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 15 ticks as it hovered around 0.9960.  After the spike, it reversed up to the 13 SMA for 19 ticks in 10 min.  Then it attempted to fall again, but could only reach 3 ticks higher than the 1st peak before the long term reversal took over in the next 90 min.

6C 12 12 (1 Min) 12.04.12

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 12 12 (1 Min) 12.04.12
Dec 042012
 


6C 12 12 (1 Min) 12.04.12

12/4/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0049
1st Peak @ 1.0074 – 0408 (8 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0078 – 0446 (46 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1.0065 – 0512 (72 min)
13 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and cited gradual growth in the US in spite of the impending fiscal cliff, recession in Europe, and stabilizing growth in China. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but the bulls showed up to cause a mild and slow developing spike of 25 ticks in 8 min. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs on top of each other about halfway up the :01 bar. It briefly stalled on the PP Pivot at 1.0060, before ascending to eclipse the R1 Pivot for the peak. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about no slippage at 1.0055, then seen it stall at the SMAs briefly before finishing the bar with a long move of another 5 ticks to the PP Pivot. If you were patient, you could have gotten at least 5 ticks and as many as 17. It then achieved a minor 2nd peak of 4 more ticks 40 min later before reversing for 13 ticks over an hour later.

6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12
Oct 232012
 


6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

10/23/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0018
1st Peak @ 1.0079 – 0302 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1.0060 – 0304 (4 min)
19 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0088 – 0335 (35 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 1.0060 – 0434 (94 min)
28 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged and cited gradual growth in the US, recession in Europe, and slowing growth in China. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but the bulls showed up in force causing an extensive rally for 61 ticks that peaked at the beginning of the :01 bar. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin then several Pivots from the S1 to the R1. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 2 ticks of slippage at 1.0027, then seen it blast off and hover between 1.0055 and 1.0070. I would place a sell limit at the top of that range or even above as it is testing the R1 Pivot around 1.0072 for 45 ticks of profit. The bar expired at 1.0075 and hit its peak at 1.0079 early on the :02 bar. After a small reversal to just below the R1 Pivot, it continued higher for a 2nd Peak for 9 more ticks. Then the reversal retreated to the same level as the earlier reversal 90 min later.

6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.19.12

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.19.12
Oct 192012
 


6C 12 12 (1 Min) 10.19.12

10/19/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0091
1st Peak @ 1.0077 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 1.0106 – 0305 (35 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report barely fell short of the forecast on the core reading and the less influential regular CPI reading. With a bearish market before the report causing a slightly oversold sentiment, the spike was quick and unsustainable as it crossed the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0082 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to hover around 1.0087. Close out there with about 5 ticks of loss, before it heads to your stop loss. With a narrowly disappointing report, and the strong support of the S2 Pivot, the short move is over. The reversal gained 15 ticks beyond the origin in about 30 min to cross the 50 SMA and hit the 100 SMA.

6C 12 12 (1 Min) 09.21.12

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 12 12 (1 Min) 09.21.12
Sep 212012
 


6C 12 12 (1 Min) 09.21.12

9/21/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.4%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0238
1st Peak @ 1.0243 – 0231 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 1.0228 – 0241 (11 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast on the core reading and fell short on the less influential regular CPI reading. With a bearish market before the report causing a slightly oversold sentiment, the bulls tried to take advantage, but only yielded 5 unsustainable ticks against the flow. The spike could not get past the 50 SMA before falling for 15 ticks in the next 10 min. With JOBB you would not have filled , so cancel the order.

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