Canadian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 05.18.12

Core CPI Comments Off

May 182012

5/18/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual:0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual:0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9834
1st Peak @ 0.9850 – 0231 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9856 – 0235 (5 min)
22 ticks (3x top)

Reversal to 0.9826 – 0314 (44 min)
30 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Moderately strong report exceeding the forecast for both the core and regular CPI readings. This caused a spike upward of 16 ticks that crossed no SMAs, but started on the PP Pivot. This caused the pullback on the 31 bar, but it eventually regained its footing and went for a 2nd peak of 22 ticks on the :35 bar. The reversal reclaimed 30 ticks in 40 minutes fighting through all of the SMAs to touch the 200 SMA.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 05.11.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

May 112012

5/11/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:58.2K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
INDECISIVE then UPWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9945
1st Peak @ 0.9910 / Reversal to 1.0001 – 0231 (1 min)
-35 ticks / 56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0038 – 0403 (93 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 0.9978 – 0956 (446 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Very positive report showing a large rise in the number of jobs when a smaller gain was expected but no change in the unemployment rate. The market spiked down prematurely on the :30 bar and then gapped the transition between the :31 bar by 56 ticks. This is bizarre and anomalous, yet was a recipe for a loss with JOBB as you would have filled short and gotten stopped out on the long reversal. With the strong report, the market did a short term small correction, then continued to rally and FAN up to 1.0038 for a total of 93 ticks from the origin.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 04.20.12

Core CPI Comments Off

Apr 202012

4/20/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.5%
CPI Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.0077
1st Peak @ 1.0063 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks (multiple bottom)

Reversal to 1.0074 – 0244 (14 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Mostly matching report with a slightly negative regular reading. This caused a small spike downward of 14 ticks, that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, and R1 Pivot but failed to reach the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0072 and look to eke out a few ticks between the 100 and R1 Pivot. The reversal reclaimed 11 ticks in 13 minutes after the peak was hit.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 04.17.12

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Apr 172012

4/17/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0029
1st Peak @ 1.0080 – 0301 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 1.0059 – 0303 (3 min)
21 ticks

“Final” Peak @ 1.0125 – 0456 (116 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 1.0102 – 0556 (176 min)
23 ticks

Notes: The BOC left its main interest rate unchanged today, citing an upbeat forecast of growth in Canada, the US, and even Europe. The markets liked the dovish sentiment and traders were buying. With no SMA to contend with on the rise, the spike easily sliced through the R2 Pivot on its way for over 50 ticks. After that, it reversed for 2 minutes, then resumed buying achieving a new high every few minutes for the next 2 hrs. The final peak of 1.0125 had not been seen since 3/2/12. As a long term reaction is common on this report, keep an eye on how it interacts with the 50 SMA after 0400 from the sideline. The strong support at 1.0088 would indicate another good long opportunity with 30+ ticks potential. The reversal did not want to come as the bears were kicked off the field until 2 hrs after the report and only yielded 23 ticks in 1 hr.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 04.05.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 052012

4/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 11.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:82.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual:7.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0000
1st Peak @ 1.0060 – 0231 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 1.0036 – 0239 (9 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0064 – 0255 (25 min)
64 ticks (28 ticks from reversal)

Reversal to 1.0048 – 0311 (41 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Very positive report showing a large rise in the number of jobs when a smaller gain was expected and a healthy drop in the unemployment rate. The market spiked upward 60 ticks, crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs close to the origin, then quickly retreated to hover at 1.0026 to 1.0036. It also crossed the S1, PP, R1, and R2 lines. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0009, then the conservative play would be to exit at the R1 line at 1.0034 near the top of the hovering. Not surprisingly it reversed back to the R1, then achieved a 2nd peak 4 ticks higher than the original peak, then reversed again for a relatively small retreat as volume and volatility dried up.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 03.23.12

Core CPI Comments Off

Mar 232012

3/23/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0100 HI time / 0700 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.4%
CPI Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9977
1st Peak @ 0.9984 / Reverse to 0.9972 – 0101 (1 min)
7 ticks / -5 ticks

Notes: Barely positive report exceeding the forecast for the core reading, but matching the regular CPI reading. This caused an initial tepid spike of 7 ticks that quickly retreated after crossing the 50 SMA and hitting the 100 SMA. Then as a moderate downtrend was in effect, it gave up the gains and fell 12 ticks to recoiling off of the SMAs. After a few minutes of sideways action, the influence was outlived and the market resumed falling.

6C 03 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 092012

3/9/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 14.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:-2.8K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.6%
Rate Actual:7.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0073
1st Peak @ 1.0058 / Reversal to 1.0083 – 0201 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 10 ticks

Notes: Mixed report showing an unexpected loss of jobs when 14K gain was expected but a drop the in unemployment rate caused indecision. The drop in the rate was caused by a reduction of the labor force, so all the details were truly negative, but the headlines caused indecision. Market dropped 15 ticks in 1 sec, then retreated a little to hover in the 6-10 tick negative area. If you closed out here, you would have a modest 1-5 ticks profit. Then it reversed and would have hit the stop loss 40 sec into the 0201 candle if you had not closed out before then.

6C 03 12 (1 Min) 03.08.12

BOC Rate Statement Comments Off

Mar 082012

3/8/2012 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Spike WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0042
1st Peak @ 1.0073 – 0402 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0082 – 0409 / 0411 (9 / 11 min)
40 ticks – 2x top

Reversal to 1.0055 – 0512 / 0513 (72 / 73 min)
27 ticks

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged citing modest growth domestically and abroad. The market reacted with a measured rise of 31 ticks in 2 candles then a 2nd peak of 40 ticks a few minutes later. The spike crossed all three SMAs, but at the base of its rise, so no significant pullback happened. Reversal yielded 27 ticks in 61 minutes after the 2nd peak, but 18 ticks of the drop was achieved in only 8 minutes, where the remaining 9 ticks took 53 minutes and had to fight through the 50 and 100 SMAs.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 02.17.12

Core CPI Comments Off

Feb 172012

2/17/2012 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0014
1st Peak @ 1.0025 – 0201 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.0015 – 0204 (4 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0034 – 0227 (27 min)
20 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 1.0018 – 0247 (47 min)
16 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Moderately strong report exceeding the forecast for both the core and regular CPI readings. This caused a spike upward of 11 ticks that had to cross all 3 SMAs, so it surrendered half of its spike in the latter half of the :01 candle. The reversal after the 1st peak recovered almost all of the spike before it was able to gear up for a 2nd peak of 20 ticks in 27 min. Then the final reverse reclaimed 16 ticks in 20 minutes fighting through all of the SMAs to briefly drop below the 200 SMA.

6C 06 12 (1 Min) 02.03.12

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

Feb 032012

2/3/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0200 HI time / 0700 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 23.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:2.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual:7.6%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9966
1st Peak @ 0.9946 – 0201 (1 min)
20 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 0.9959 – 0206 (6 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report showing a less than expected rise in the number of jobs when a larger gain was expected and a rise in the unemployment rate. The market spiked downward 20 ticks, crossing only the S1 line about one third of the way on its path before bottoming out just above the S2 line. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.9956. With the downward trend and no major SMAs, it would be okay to wait to close until the :02 candle and set a buy limit 1-2 ticks higher than the bottom of the :01 candle. The reversal was quick and recaptured more than half of the spike up to the 13 EMA.

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