3/31/2016 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2051.25 (moved at 2059:42)
1st Peak @ 2053.50 – 2059:53 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2052.25 – 2101 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 2056.00 – 2116 (16 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 2052.00 – 2135 (35 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 2052.00
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2053.25 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2053.00 (just above the OOD / 200 SMA) / 2054.25 (just above the LOD / PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice long spike on the ES for a no slippage fill hovered above the OOD to allow an easy 4-5 ticks to be captured. Then a 2nd peak 15 min later allowed another 10 ticks to be taken. After that it reversed 16 ticks to the 100 SMA.

1/31/2016 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 49.4
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.0610
1st Peak @ 2.0630 – 2000:09 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 2.0595 – 2003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.0400 – 2035 (35 min)
46 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.0625
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.0625 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.660 – on the HOD

Notes: Narrow offset caused a small 4 tick spike to barely fill the order then hover on the fill point for 18 sec. Exit the order at breakeven especially due to the presence of all the SMAs, the OOD, and the PP Pivot.  After that it reversed and fell 46 ticks in the next 35 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

4/30/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9260 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.9252 – 2059:29 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9260 – 2104 (4 min)
8 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9272 – 2116 (16 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast but still yielded 8 ticks and was released at 2059:21 (39 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We only saw 2 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time. The spike started just above the 50 SMA, then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, LOD, and PP Pivot. With JOBB your short entry would have filled at 0.9255 with no slippage, then allowed only 3 ticks to be captured with ease as it hovered just below the PP Pivot and LOD. After the peak, it reversed for 8 ticks in the next 4 min back to the origin, then another 12 ticks in the next 12 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot.

7/31/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 51.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9281 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.9296 – 2059:17 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9276 – 2102 (3 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9258 – 2146 (16 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast and yielded 15 ticks long but shortly sustained reaction and was released at 2059:17 (43 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We saw 4 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time, but it returned to the anchor before release. The spike started on the 13 SMA, then rose to cross the R2 Pivot before reversing. With JOBB your long entry would have filled at 0.9289 with about 3 ticks slippage, then briefly shown 7 ticks of profit before falling to breakeven. It fell 7 ticks in the red briefly before climbing back to breakeven on the :01 bar. Look to exit near breakeven to 2 ticks of heat. After that the reversal took over and drove a short move of 20 ticks from the peak in 3 min to the 100 SMA, then another 18 ticks in the next 44 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD.

9/30/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.1
Actual: 51.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.8681 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.8687 – 2059:49 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.8672 – 2108 (9 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.8680 – 2112 (13 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and yielded only 6 ticks about 10 sec after the news was released. Once again it was released at 2059:46 – estimated (14 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We saw 4 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time, and the news broke when it was 1 tick from the anchor point. The spike started near the LOD and rose to reach the 50 SMA on the :00 bar. With JOBB you would have been filled at 0.8686 with no slippage then been able to exit at breakeven as it hovered near the fill point. After the spike, it reversed 15 ticks in 8 min, then pulled back 8 ticks in 4 min. After that it fell and was overtaken by other news at the bottom of the hour.