6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.28.2013

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May 082013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2_28_2013

2/28/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast:  50.5
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0206 (1959)
1st Peak @ 1.0193 – 2001 (2 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0220 – 2122 (83 min)
27 ticks

Notes:  Report was released 1 min early. Mildly negative report disappointed the traders.  This caused a small short spike of 13 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar. It used the major SMAs at the origin as resistance then crossed the S1 Pivot and ran out of gas.  The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have seen the premature move.  You could either cancel the order, or if you let it play out, you would have filled short at 1.0195 with no slippage. Look to exit near the S1 with 1 or 2 ticks loss.  After the 1st peak, it stayed between 1.0202 and 1.0195 at the S1 Pivot for about 25 min before it eventually broke out long for the reversal which achieved 27 ticks in 83 min.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

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May 082013
 

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1_31_2013

1/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast:  51.1
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0402
1st Peak @ 1.0376 – 2003 (3 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0366 – 2035 (35 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0387 – 2047 (47 min)
21 ticks

Notes:  Negative report disappointed the traders.  This caused a healthy short spike of 26 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar, crossing the 100/200 SMAs and R1 Pivot near the origin and eclipsing the PP Pivot near the bottom.  The market had been trending slightly higher before the report in the last 60 min, and started to correct. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0396 with 2 ticks of slippage, then if you were patient, you would have had an opportunity to exit with 16+ ticks as it bottomed below the PP Pivot.  After the 1st peak, it continued lower slowly gaining 10 more ticks in about 30 min.  Then it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 12 min, mostly on the :46 bar.  After that it continued lower, then traded sideways between the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.31.12

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Oct 312012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.31.12

10/31/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 50.2
Previous Revision: n/a
spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0345
1st Peak @ 1.0337 – 1507 (7 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0319 – 1532 (32 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.0339 – 1551 (51 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report disappointed the traders. This caused a small short spike of 8 ticks that peaked on the :07 bar, crossing the 100 SMA and eclipsing the 200 SMA. The market had been trending higher before the report in the last 60 min, and started to correct. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0341 with no slippage, then if you were patient had an opportunity to exit with 2-4 ticks as it peaked below the 200 SMA. After it was able to successfully cross the 200 SMA, it achieved a 2nd peak of 26 ticks about 25 min later, eclipsing the S1 Pivot. The reversal yielded 20 ticks in about 20 min after the 2nd peak, rebounding to cross the 50 SMA then eclipse the 200 / 100 SMAs on top of each other.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.30.12

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Sep 302012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.30.12

9/30/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.9
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0294
1st Peak @ 1.0283 – 1501 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0266 – 1548 (48 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0274 – 1557 (57 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report disappointed the traders. This caused a small short spike of 11 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossed all 3 of the major SMAs and the S1 Pivot and was unable to sustain the drop. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0290 with no slippage. Close out at the S1 Pivot at 1.0284 for 6 ticks. After struggling to penetrate the S1 Pivot, it was able to dive for a protracted 2nd peak of 28 ticks 48 min later, penetrating the LOD. The reversal yielded only 8 ticks in about 9 min after the 2nd peak, unable to change the sentiment in a bearish environment. The market continued lower an hour later, but not likely due to the influence of this report.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.31.12

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Jul 312012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.31.12

7/31/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0356
1st Peak @ 1.0340 – 1503 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0333 – 1510 (10 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0367 – 1730 (150 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Slightly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar, crossed the 100 and 50 SMAs and the S2 Pivot. After eclipsing the S2 Pivot, it was unable to sustain the drop and bounced for 9 ticks. The market had been trending lower with a last minute bullish correction prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0351 with no slippage. Keep an eye on it as it approaches the LOD, then exit between the LOD and the S2 Pivot at about 1.0343 for 8 ticks. After the small reversal, it achieved a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks on the :10 bar. Then we had a 12 tick reversal to the S2 Pivot, another drop for a double bottom, then the final reversal took effect. It yielded 34 ticks in 2 hrs after the double 2nd peak at 1530, slowly and methodically climbing through all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

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May 312012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

5/31/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE with 2nd peak
Started @ 0.9518
1st Peak @ 0.9485 – 1500 (0 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.9506 – 1501 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9468 – 1509 (9 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 0.9514 – 1643 (103 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Results released 20 sec early, so spike moved at 14:59:40. Strongly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 33 ticks that peaked on the :00 bar, only crossing the S1 Pivot near the origin. It was unable to sustain the large drop and retraced for 21 ticks to 0.9506 on the :01 bar. The market had been trending lower prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9511 with 2 ticks of slippage. If you had been quick you could have closed out 5-8 sec after the spike and made about 20 ticks. If not, be patient and set your exit near the bottom of the 1st peak at about 0.9487 and wait for it to fill on the :03 or :06 bar. It achieved a 2nd peak of 50 ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot on the :09 bar. The reversal yielded 46 ticks in 94 min after the 2nd peak, slowly and methodically climbing through all 3 major SMAs and eclipsing the S1 Pivot.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 04.30.12

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Apr 302012
 


6A 12 12 (1 Min) 04.30.12

4/30/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 53.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0202
1st Peak @ 1.0194 – 1500 (0 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 1.0203 – 1502 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0189 – 1522 (22 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0203 – 1550 (50 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Results released 1 min early, so spike moved at 14:59:05, but dull overall. Slightly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 8 ticks that peaked on the :00 bar, only crossing the PP Pivot. It was unable to sustain the drop due to the heavy support from the PP Pivot and retraced for 9 ticks on the :02 bar. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0198 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to get 3 ticks before it retraced. If you did not close out before the retracement, be patient and set your exit near the bottom of the 1st peak at about 1.0195 and wait for it to fill on the :09 bar. It achieved a 2nd peak of 13 ticks, nearing the S1 Pivot on the :22 bar. The reversal yielded 14 ticks in about 30 min after the 2nd peak (mostly in the last 5 min), climbing through all 3 major SMAs and eclipsing the PP Pivot.

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