CNY Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.23.12

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 232012

10/23/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1545 HI time / 2145 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 49.1
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 47.9
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0251
1st Peak @ 1.0268 – 1547 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0258 – 1548 (3 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0273 – 1623 (38 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0262 – 1659 (74 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a negligible positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 17 ticks that peaked on the :47 bar. The market had been trending higher before the report after a positive CPI report 75 min earlier, so no SMAs were crossed, but the R2 Pivot was crossed near the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled at 1.0257 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 7-9 ticks as it peaked. It quickly reversed for 10 ticks, then climbed for a slightly higher peak, backed off, then achieved the final peak of 22 ticks 38 min after the report. The final reversal yielded 11 ticks in 36 min after the final peak, crossing the 50 SMA and bottoming on the 100 SMA.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.17.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Oct 172012

10/17/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.4%
Actual: 7.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
spike/reverse
Started @ 1.0319 (1559)
1st Peak @ 1.0346 – 1601 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.0329 – 1610 (11 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Matching report impressed the traders. This caused a decent long spike of 27 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossing all 3 of the SMAs in its path and eclipsing the R1 Pivot. The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0324 with no slippage. Keep an eye on how it behaves as it challenges the SMA barrier then after it easily clears, look to exit at the R1 Pivot at 1.0344 for 20 ticks. The reversal yielded 17 ticks in about 9 min after the peak, retreating to eclipse the 50 SMA. After that it tried to achieve a 2nd peak, and managed a double top about an hour later.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.30.12

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 302012

9/30/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.9
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0294
1st Peak @ 1.0283 – 1501 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0266 – 1548 (48 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0274 – 1557 (57 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report disappointed the traders. This caused a small short spike of 11 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, crossed all 3 of the major SMAs and the S1 Pivot and was unable to sustain the drop. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0290 with no slippage. Close out at the S1 Pivot at 1.0284 for 6 ticks. After struggling to penetrate the S1 Pivot, it was able to dive for a protracted 2nd peak of 28 ticks 48 min later, penetrating the LOD. The reversal yielded only 8 ticks in about 9 min after the 2nd peak, unable to change the sentiment in a bearish environment. The market continued lower an hour later, but not likely due to the influence of this report.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 192012

9/19/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 47.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0379
1st Peak @ 1.0388 – 1631 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0348 – 1705 (35 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a long spike of only 9 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, going against the grain and hitting all 3 SMAs. Unable to sustain the rise, it bounced off of the 200 SMA and fell, erasing the 9 ticks on the :32 bar, and a total of 40 ticks in the next 33 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0384 with no slippage, and had a brief opportunity to close out between breakeven and a 2-3 tick gain. This would be an ideal reversal trade given the conditions. I would sell at about the 50 SMA on the :32 bar then take it to at least the S1 for 9 ticks.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 08.22.12

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 222012

8/22/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 49.3
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0419
1st Peak @ 1.0396 – 1633 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0406 – 1634 (4 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0391 – 1642 (12 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0417 – 1802 (92 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks that peaked on the :34 bar, crossing the 100 and 200 SMAs. With the market engaged in a rally in the previous 90 min before the report, it was looking to correct. This aided the selling momentum as it was able to sustain the drop and stay below the 200 for more than 30 min after it crossed. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0414 with no slippage, and had an opportunity to close out between the 200 SMA and 1.0398 for about 14 ticks. It achieved a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks before reversing slowly for 26 ticks over 80 min.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.31.12

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 312012

7/31/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.4
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0356
1st Peak @ 1.0340 – 1503 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0333 – 1510 (10 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0367 – 1730 (150 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Slightly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks that peaked on the :03 bar, crossed the 100 and 50 SMAs and the S2 Pivot. After eclipsing the S2 Pivot, it was unable to sustain the drop and bounced for 9 ticks. The market had been trending lower with a last minute bullish correction prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0351 with no slippage. Keep an eye on it as it approaches the LOD, then exit between the LOD and the S2 Pivot at about 1.0343 for 8 ticks. After the small reversal, it achieved a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks on the :10 bar. Then we had a 12 tick reversal to the S2 Pivot, another drop for a double bottom, then the final reversal took effect. It yielded 34 ticks in 2 hrs after the double 2nd peak at 1530, slowly and methodically climbing through all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.23.12

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 232012

7/23/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 49.5
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 48.2
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0130
1st Peak @ 1.0152 – 1631 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0143 – 1637 (7 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0155 – 1638 (8 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0137 – 1656 (26 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders, with a negligible positive previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 SMAs near the origin and the R1 Pivot halfway up the spike. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0135 with no slippage, and had an opportunity to close out at the top of the :31 bar for about 16 ticks. It reversed to close the gap to the 13 SMA for 9 ticks, then it achieved a 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks. The reversal crossed the R1 Pivot and came down to eclipse the 50 SMA for 18 ticks in 18 min

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Jul 122012

7/12/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.7%
Actual: 7.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECisive
Started @ 0.9993 (1559)
1st Peak @ 0.9984 – 1601 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 1.0018 – 1602 (3 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 0.9992 – 1621 (22 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Barely negative and nearly matching report caused indecision. This caused a short move of 9 ticks that peaked on the :01 bar, hitting all 3 major SMAs, then a reversal long for 34 ticks peaking on the :02 bar. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9988 with no slippage. It fell to 0.9984, then hovered between 0.9984 and 0.9989 for 15 sec before reversing long. This would give you ample time to close out with 1-2 ticks or at break even. The other play you could make would be moving the stop loss in by 10 ticks at 0.9993 so you are only risking 5 ticks. This way you are protected, but if it dives you would be able to capture the profit. It reversed for 34 ticks, then retreated for 26 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA, then rebounded long again.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 48.1
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 48.4
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0001
1st Peak @ 0.9988 – 1634 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1.0001 – 1646 (16 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9986 – 1701 (31 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9998 – 1744 (74 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a short spike of 13 ticks that peaked on the :34 bar. Since the market was trending lower, no SMAs or Pivots were crossed. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.0096 with no slippage, and had an opportunity to close out with 4-5 ticks. It reversed to reclaim the 13 tick drop 12 min later, then achieved a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks, testing the LOD 15 min later. The reversal crossed the 50 SMA and eclipsed the 100 SMA for 12 ticks 43 min after the 2nd peak.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 312012

5/31/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1500 HI time / 2100 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE with 2nd peak
Started @ 0.9518
1st Peak @ 0.9485 – 1500 (0 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.9506 – 1501 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9468 – 1509 (9 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 0.9514 – 1643 (103 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Results released 20 sec early, so spike moved at 14:59:40. Strongly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 33 ticks that peaked on the :00 bar, only crossing the S1 Pivot near the origin. It was unable to sustain the large drop and retraced for 21 ticks to 0.9506 on the :01 bar. The market had been trending lower prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.9511 with 2 ticks of slippage. If you had been quick you could have closed out 5-8 sec after the spike and made about 20 ticks. If not, be patient and set your exit near the bottom of the 1st peak at about 0.9487 and wait for it to fill on the :03 or :06 bar. It achieved a 2nd peak of 50 ticks, eclipsing the S2 Pivot on the :09 bar. The reversal yielded 46 ticks in 94 min after the 2nd peak, slowly and methodically climbing through all 3 major SMAs and eclipsing the S1 Pivot.

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