-091912.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/19/2012 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (1630 HI time / 2230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: 47.8
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 47.6
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0379
1st Peak @ 1.0388 – 1631 (1 min)
9 ticks
Reversal to 1.0348 – 1705 (35 min)
40 ticks
Notes: Report mildly impressed the traders, with a small negative previous report revision. This caused a long spike of only 9 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, going against the grain and hitting all 3 SMAs. Unable to sustain the rise, it bounced off of the 200 SMA and fell, erasing the 9 ticks on the :32 bar, and a total of 40 ticks in the next 33 min, crossing the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0384 with no slippage, and had a brief opportunity to close out between breakeven and a 2-3 tick gain. This would be an ideal reversal trade given the conditions. I would sell at about the 50 SMA on the :32 bar then take it to at least the S1 for 9 ticks.