CNY Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 12.1.2013

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

12/1/2013 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.8
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2040
1st Peak @ 3.2065 – 2046 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2150 – 2104 (19 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 3.2040 – 2123 (38 min)
22 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.1965 – 2208 (83 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.3 pts, causing a small long spike of 5 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs, then only rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs on the :46 bars. With the tame move on the :46 bar, it would be safe and conservative to exit on 100/200 SMAs, but knowing the average reaction is larger, you can patiently wait for more ticks on a later move. After the :46 bar it struggled with the 100/200 SMAs for 4 more mine, then ascended for 17 more ticks in the next 14 min, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the HOD. It nearly reached the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 22 ticks in the next 19 min back to the origin. Then after a brief pullback, it continued to reverse for another 15 ticks in the next 45 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD.

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 1.29.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

1/29/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 49.5
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2435
1st Peak @ 3.2420 – 2046 (1 min)
3 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2335 – 2109 (24 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 3.2385 – 2116 (31 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1 pts, causing a dull short spike of only 3 ticks that started on the 13 SMA, then only fell to hit the LOD on the :46 bars. With the tame move on the :46 bar, it would be safe and conservative to exit near breakeven, but we can confidently expect a 2nd peak move to be forthcoming. It took about 20 min to initiate, but it achieved another 17 ticks on the 2nd peak as it reached the S1 Pivot. Then is reversed for 10 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 20 SMA. After that it fell and traded sideways on the S1 Pivot.

HG 05-14 (1 Min) 3.2.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 292014

3/2/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 48.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1900 (2043)
1st Peak @ 3.1730 – 2046 (3 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 3.1785 – 2048 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1705 – 2050 (7 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 3.1785 – 2052 (9 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and appears to have been released 2 min early as the 6A and HG both moved at 2043 although Forex Factory does not mention a premature release. This caused a large short spike of 34 ticks that started just above the OOD and 50 SMA, then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Pivot, and nearly reached the LOD on the :44 – 46 bars. This would not have been tradable with the early move, but we can still document the reaction for statistics and trends. After the peak, it reversed 11 ticks before achieving a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks, nearly reaching the S2 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 16 ticks to the 13 SMA 2 min later. After that it continued to trend lower as price action and volume dried up.

HG 05-14 (1 Min) 3.23.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/23/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.7
Actual: 48.1
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 48.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.9375
1st Peak @ 3.9260 – 2147 (2 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 2.9315 – 2147 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.9210 – 2148 (3 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 2.9390 – 2244 (59 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a small previous report upward revision. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks that started on the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and LOD early into the :47 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 2.9350 with about 2 ticks of slippage. A 10 tick profit target would have filled in seconds. Otherwise you would have seen a retracement to your fill point and another fall following for 6 more ticks. Look to exit hear for up to 15 ticks. After that it reversed for 11 ticks to the S2 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of another 10 ticks in the :48 bar. Then it reversed for 36 ticks in the next 55 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and origin.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a spike of 34 ticks, but the slippage would have averaged 13 so we would not have filled.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 3.31.2014

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 212014

3/31/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EST)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9228 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.9245 – 2059:51 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9230 – 2114 (15 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast but still yielded 17 ticks and was released at 2059:41 (19 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We only saw 2 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the 2:11 wait time. The spike started on the R1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA, then crossed the 50 SMA and reached the R1 Pivot after 10 sec. With JOBB your long entry would have filled at 0.9234 with 1 tick of slippage, then allowed up to 10 ticks to be captured with ease as it hovered near the R1 Pivot for 20 sec. After the peak, it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 14 min, crossing the 50 SMA and nearly reaching the 100 SMA.

HG 05-14 (1 Min) 3.31.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 212014

3/31/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 48.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.0280
1st Peak @ 3.0170 – 2148 (3 min)
22 tick

Reversal to 3.0270 – 2203 (18 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 3.0180 – 2250 (65 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 3.0245 – 2255 (70 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a relatively large margin of 0.5 pts. This caused a short spike of 22 ticks that started on the PP Pivot / OOD, then fell to cross the S1 Pivot on the :46 – 48 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.0265 with no slippage after waiting 34 sec. This is normal as the report is slower to react, but then it would have allowed up to 18 ticks to be captured on the S1 Pivot. After the peak, it reversed 20 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA in 15 min. Then it pulled back to nearly reach a double bottom after 47 minutes. After that it reversed for 13 ticks, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA and traded sideways.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.15.2014

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

May 052014

4/15/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.4%
Actual: 7.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9312 (2159:29)
1st Peak @ 0.9334 – 2201 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.9321 – 2202 (3 min)
13 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.9309 – 2224 (25 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Matching report caused a long spike of 22 ticks that reached the R1 Mid Pivot and launched at :29 sec in a gradual rise. With JOBB your long order would have filled at 0.9318 with 1 tick of slippage, and shown an easy ramp up to 15 ticks at the R1 Mid Pivot as a optimal exit. After the peak, it reversed for 13 ticks in the next bar to the PP Pivot. Then it continued into an extended reversal for another 12 ticks in the next 22 min as it reached the 100/200 SMAs. With the matching report, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

HG 07-14 (1 Min) 4.22.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 072014

4/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.4
Actual: 48.3
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 48.0
DULL REACTION…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.0215
1st Bar only 1 tick movement
1st Peak @ 3.0290 – 2155 (10 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 3.0240 – 2203 (18 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report was nearly matching with a small previous report downward revision. This caused a yawner initially with only 1 tick movement. With JOBB, cancel the order after no movement in 10-15 sec. Strangely, it rallied later on the :53-55 bars for 15 ticks, crossing the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks, crossing the 13 SMA. After that it traded sideways and reacted to another unannounced news event at 2230.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a short spike of 11 ticks, allowing about 4 ticks to be captured.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 192014

4/30/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9260 (2058)
1st Peak @ 0.9252 – 2059:29 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.9260 – 2104 (4 min)
8 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9272 – 2116 (16 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast but still yielded 8 ticks and was released at 2059:21 (39 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We only saw 2 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time. The spike started just above the 50 SMA, then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, LOD, and PP Pivot. With JOBB your short entry would have filled at 0.9255 with no slippage, then allowed only 3 ticks to be captured with ease as it hovered just below the PP Pivot and LOD. After the peak, it reversed for 8 ticks in the next 4 min back to the origin, then another 12 ticks in the next 12 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot.

HG 07-14 (1 Min) 5.4.2014

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 242014

5/4/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.4
Actual: 48.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.0770
1st Peak @ 3.0715 – 2148 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 3.0750 – 2207 (22 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a short spike of 11 ticks that fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot, the OOD, and the 50 SMA on the :46 – 48 bars. It nearly reached the 100 SMA before reversing. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.0750 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have allowed up to 6 ticks to be captured as it approached the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed 7 ticks to climb above the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA in 19 min. Then it traded sideways.

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