HG 07-14 (1 Min) 5.21.2014

 HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 07-14 (1 Min) 5.21.2014
May 312014
 

HG 07-14 (1 Min)  5_21_2014

5/21/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.4
Actual: 49.7
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 48.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1280
1st Peak @ 3.1385 – 2147 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 3.1335 – 2148 (3 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1445 – 2155 (10 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 3.1390 – 2219 (34 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders with a small previous report downward revision. This caused a nice healthy long spike that started on the OOD and rose to cross the 50 SMA, R1 Pivot, and extend the HOD while nearly reaching the R2 Mid Pivot over 2 bars. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 3.1330 with 7 ticks of slippage (right at the max of the limit order settings. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit with up to 8 ticks later in the bar. After the peak, it reversed for 10 ticks to the R1 Pivot on the next bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks in the next 7 min to the R2 Pivot. After that it fell 11 ticks in 24 min before trading sideways.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a long spike of 39 ticks, that would not have filled as the slippage was excessive.

HG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.2.2014

 HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.2.2014
Jun 112014
 

HG 07-14 (1 Min)  6_2_2014

6/2/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 49.4
DULL REACTION
Started @ 3.1545
1st Peak @ 3.1530 – 2146 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 3.1570 – 2149 (4 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a dull short spike of only 3 ticks that was stuck on the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD keeping it from falling further. With JOBB you would have not have filled in the first 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial move, it reversed for 8 ticks back to the 20 SMA, then fell as it started a cycle of oscillating between the LOD and 20 SMA.

HG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.22.2014

 HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.22.2014
Jul 072014
 

HG 07-14 (1 Min)  6_22_2014

6/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 50.8
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 49.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1320
1st Peak @ 3.1395 – 2147 (2 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1435 – 2151 (6 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 3.1350 – 2203 (18 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders with a small previous report downward revision. This caused a nice healthy long spike that started on the 13 SMA of an upward trend and rose to cross the R1 Pivot, and eclipse the HOD. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 3.1345 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit with up to 8 ticks later in the bar. After the peak, it hovered in a tight range near the HOD for 4 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to reach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 17 ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next 12 min. After that it continued to trend upward over the next few hours.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a long spike of 29 ticks, that would not have filled as the slippage was excessive.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014

 Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6A 09-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014
Jul 102014
 

6A 09-14 (1 Min)  6_30_2014

6/30/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.0
Actual: 51.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9369 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.9375 – 2059:44 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.9369 – 2101 (2 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and yielded only 6 ticks that was shortly sustained and was released at 2059:18 (42 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We only saw 1 tick deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time. The spike started on the 13 SMA, then rose to cross the 50 SMA, and reach the 100 SMA before reversing. With JOBB your long entry would have filled at 0.9374 with no slippage, then allowed an exit within 1 tick of breakeven as it hovered for 15 sec near the top. With the matching result, look to exit quickly at breakeven. It reversed back to the origin on the next bar.

HG 09-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014

 HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 09-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014
Jul 112014
 

HG 09-14 (1 Min)  6_30_2014

6/30/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual: 50.7
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 3.2000
1st Peak @ 3.1980 – 2152 (7 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 3.2085 – 2202 (17 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a slim margin of 0.1 pts. This caused a dull short spike of only 4 ticks in 7 min that did not want to challenge the LOD. With JOBB you would have not have filled in the first 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial move, it reversed for 21 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot in 10 min, but that move was likely corrective of the larger downtrend from before the report.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.15.2014

 Quarterly GDP  Comments Off on 6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.15.2014
Jul 302014
 

6A 09-14 (1 Min)  7_16_2014

7/15/2014 CNY Quarterly GDP (2200 EDT)
Forecast: 7.4%
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9322 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 0.9331 – 2201 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.9309 – 2206 (7 min)
22 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.9295 – 2255 (56 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a long spike of only 9 ticks that reached the OOD and launched at :54 sec in a small short move followed by the long spike. With JOBB your long order would have filled at 0.9328 with 1 tick of slippage, then allowed an ideal exit with 1-2 ticks when it hovered for over 30 sec as the :01 bar was turning over to the :02 bar. After that it reversed strongly for 22 ticks in the next 5 min to nearly reach the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it continued lower for another 14 ticks in the next 49 min as it reached the S2 Mid Pivot. With the matching report, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.

HG 09-14 (1 Min) 7.23.2014

 HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 09-14 (1 Min) 7.23.2014
Aug 082014
 

HG 09-14 (1 Min)  7_23_2014 6A 09-14 (1 Min)  7_24_2014

7/23/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 52.0
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 50.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2165
1st Peak @ 3.2245 – 2146 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 3.2210 – 2148 (3 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2360 – 2210 (25 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 3.2250 – 2244 (59 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report impressed the traders with a negligible previous report downward revision. This caused a nice healthy long spike that started on the R2 Pivot of an upward trend and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot, and extend the HOD. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 3.2195 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit with up to 10 ticks later in the bar when it hovered just above the R3 Mid Pivot. After the peak, it fell 7 ticks before rallying again for 2 tier final peak of 23 more ticks in 24 min that nearly reached the R4 Pivot. Then it fell 22 ticks in the next 34 min to cross the R3 Pivot and 50 SMA and bottom at the same level of the 1st peak.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a long spike of 32 ticks, that would not have filled as the slippage was excessive. It would have allowed a good reversal trade opportunity as it tried 3 times unsuccessfully to penetrate the R3 Mid Pivot while the 6A rarely goes for 2nd peaks on this report. This would have yielded up to 15-18 ticks in about an hour.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

 Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on 6A 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014
Aug 232014
 

6A 09-14 (1 Min)  7_31_2014

7/31/2014 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.4
Actual: 51.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9281 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.9296 – 2059:17 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9276 – 2102 (3 min)
20 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.9258 – 2146 (16 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast and yielded 15 ticks long but shortly sustained reaction and was released at 2059:17 (43 sec early). We advised setting the activation time at 20:57:30. We saw 4 ticks deviation from the anchor point in the nearly 2 min wait time, but it returned to the anchor before release. The spike started on the 13 SMA, then rose to cross the R2 Pivot before reversing. With JOBB your long entry would have filled at 0.9289 with about 3 ticks slippage, then briefly shown 7 ticks of profit before falling to breakeven. It fell 7 ticks in the red briefly before climbing back to breakeven on the :01 bar. Look to exit near breakeven to 2 ticks of heat. After that the reversal took over and drove a short move of 20 ticks from the peak in 3 min to the 100 SMA, then another 18 ticks in the next 44 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD.

HG 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

 HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014
Aug 242014
 

HG 09-14 (1 Min)  8_1_2014

7/31/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 52.0
Actual: 51.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2350
1st Peak @ 3.2320 – 2148 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.2345 – 2221 (36 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.2305 – 2233 (48 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 3.2345 – 2258 (73 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a short spike of 6 ticks ticks that fell to cross the 13/20 SMAs on the :46 – 48 bars. Then it traded sideways and eventually reversed for 5 ticks after 33 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.2335 with no slippage. Then it would have allowed up to 3 ticks to be captured. After the reversal it achieved a minor 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to the 100/200 SMAs and OOD in 12 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 25 min for a double top.

HG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.20.2014

 HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on HG 09-14 (1 Min) 8.20.2014
Sep 052014
 

HG 09-14 (1 Min)  8_20_2014 6A 09-14 (1 Min)  8_20_2014

8/20/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 50.3
Previous Revision: -0.3 to 51.7
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.1645
1st Peak @ 3.1555 – 2148 (3 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 3.1625 – 2156 (11 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 3.1595 – 2203 (18 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.1640 – 2208 (23 min)
9 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.1675 – 2313 (28 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders with a negligible previous report downward revision. This caused a healthy short spike that started on the 50 SMA falling on a downward trend and fell to reach the PP Pivot in 3 bars and extend the LOD. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 3.1605 with 5 ticks of slippage. Then it would have given you an opportunity to exit with up to 9-10 ticks on the :48-:52 bars as it could not penetrate the PP Pivot. After the peak, it reversed 14 ticks to the 50 SMA in 8 min. Then it pulled back 6 ticks before reversing for 9 ticks in the next 12 min. Then it climbed another 7 ticks to eclipse the 200 SMA.

We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a short spike of 31 ticks that would not have filled as the slippage was excessive. It would have allowed a good reversal trade opportunity as it seemed uncomfortable trading below the S2 Pivot while the 6A rarely goes for 2nd peaks on this report. A buy around 0.9226 on the :47 bar would have yielded up to 12 ticks in about 12 min as it reached the 13/20 SMAs.