11/30/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 50.0
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.8100
1st Bar Span – 2.8105 – 2-8095 (1 min)
2 ticks
Notes: Report matched the forecast. This caused no movement on the :46 bar with only 2 ticks span which could be resulting from the bid spread alone. With JOBB you should have cancelled after 10 sec with no impulse, but it would not have filled the short order until 90 sec after the release anyway.
1/19/2015 CNY Quarterly GDP (2100 EST)
Forecast: 7.2%
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.8165 (2159:20)
1st Peak @ 0.8156 – 2159:32 (1 min)
9 ticks
Reversal to 0.8180 – 2100:00 (2 min)
24 ticks
Pullback to 0.8161 – 2104 (5 min)
19 ticks
Reversal to 0.8181 – 2106 (7 min)
20 ticks
Pullback to 0.8126 – 2201 (62 min)
55 ticks
Notes: Nearly matching report caused an unstable reaction. It drifted lower 9 ticks in about 13 sec, then would have reversed to stop you out 5 sec later. This is the second report in a row that behaved this way (small initial spike followed by a large reversal. This is a quarterly report with rare occurrences, so trends are harder to establish, but me may shift on the next report. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.8160 with no slippage, then briefly shown 4 ticks of profit as it hit the 200 SMA before reversing to stop you out at 0.8165 for a 5 tick loss with no slippage. It continued to reverse for a total of 24 ticks as it reached the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back 19 ticks in 3 min to the S2 Mid Pivot / 20 SMA before reversing to the PP Pivot again 2 min later. Then it fell 55 ticks in 55 min to the S4 Mid Pivot. With the matching report and unstable reaction, a trade on the HG would not be recommended.
1/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 49.5
Actual: 49.8
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 2.5725
1st Peak @ 2.5745 – 2045:00 (1 min)
4 ticks
Reversal to 2.5725 – 2045:04 (1 min)
4 ticks
2nd Peak @ 2.5755 – 2048 (3 min)
6 ticks
Reversal to 2.5600 – 2115 (30 min)
31 ticks
Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a modest upward previous report revision. This caused a small 4 tick long spike that crossed the 13 SMA then reversed back to the origin quickly. WIth JOBB, your long order would have filled at 2.5740 with no slippage. Then it would have sat for a while at -2 ticks. You could have exited there or with minimal risk wait for a little delayed push higher given that is typical with this report. It climbed for a minor 2nd peak of only 2 more ticks to the 20 SMA to allow 2 ticks of profit to be captured. Then it reversed for 31 ticks after crossing the S1 Mid Pivot in 27 min as a part of a much larger down trend.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw an indecisive reaction for the first 8 sec to be unsafe and likely cause a stop out with a 10 tick loss.
2/1/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 49.7
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.4965
1st Bar Span – 2.4960 – 2-4965 (1 min)
1 tick
Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by only 0.1 to cause no movement on the :46 bar with only 1 tick span which could be resulting from the bid spread alone. With JOBB you should have cancelled after 10 sec with no impulse, but it would not have filled the short order until 65 sec after the release anyway.
2/24/2015 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.7
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 2.6340
1st Peak @ 2.6360 – 2045:00 (1 min)
4 ticks
2nd Peak @ 2.6400 – 2101 (16 min)
12 ticks
Reversal to 2.6350 – 2109 (24 min)
10 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a negligible downward previous report revision. This caused a small 4 tick long spike that started on the 50 SMA and rose just a few ticks. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 2.6355 with no slippage. Then it would have hovered for most of the bar around the fill point. It did not reverse for any significant measure before climbing for a 2nd peak of only 8 more ticks to the 100 SMA in 15 min. So you could have exited near breakeven with a small profit, or waited for the delayed rise for a few ticks as there was no real resistance barrier lingering above other than the 100 SMA. After that it reversed 10 ticks in 8 min to the 50 SMA.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a large unsustainable spike of 25 ticks that would have filled with at least 6 ticks of slippage and allowed about 5-8 ticks to be captured.
3/1/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 50.1
Actual: 50.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 2.6890
1st Peak @ 2.6910 – 2046:00 (1 min)
4 ticks
Reversal to 3.6880 – 2051 (6 min)
6 ticks
2nd Peak @ 2.6940 – 2108 (23 min)
10 ticks
Reversal to 2.6925 – 2111 (26 min)
3 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a relatively large margin of 0.6 pts. This caused a 4 tick long move in 1 min that started on the 13/20 SMAs. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 2.6900 with no slippage, then allowed an exit with 1 or 2 ticks of profit quickly as it hovered. As this report usually achieves a 2nd peak, it reversed 6 ticks in 5 min before climbing for a 2nd peak for 6 more ticks in 17 min after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed only 3ticks and traded sideways above the R1 Mid Pivot.
3/23/2015 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 49.2
Previous Revision: +0.6 to 50.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.8120
1st Peak @ 2.8070 – 2145:43 (1 min)
10 ticks
Reversal to 2.8115 – 2148 (3 min)
9 ticks
2nd Peak @ 2.7965 – 2206 (21 min)
31 ticks
Reversal to 2.8025 – 2208 (23 min)
12 ticks
Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a moderate upward previous report revision. This caused a 10 tick short spike that started on the 13 SMA and fell to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 2.8095 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it would have fallen and near the R1 Pivot for about 25 sec to allow an exit with 4 ticks. After that it reversed 9 ticks in 2 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks in 18 min to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a large premature move that reversed 11 sec before the report that would have disqualified it from trading. Then it fell 24 ticks immediately which would have been accompanied with at least 8 ticks of slippage.
3/31/2015 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 50.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7600 (2059)
1st Peak @ 0.7618 – 2100:58 (2 min)
18 ticks
Reversal to 0.7611 – 2103 (4 min)
7 ticks
2nd Peak @ 0.7635 – 2011 (12 min)
35 ticks
Reversal to 0.7615 – 2120 (21 min)
20 ticks
Continued Reversal to 0.7607 – 2143 (44 min)
28 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.4% to cause a 18 tick long spike that started on the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot. As usual it released about 15 sec early. With JOBB you would have been filled long at 0.7605 with no slippage then been able to exit with 12 ticks as it hovered at the high point for several seconds late in the :01 bar. After that it reversed for 7 ticks in the next 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 17 more ticks as it crossed the R2 Pivot in the next 8 min. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 9 min to the 13/20 SMAs and another 8 ticks in the next 23 min to the R1 Pivot.
We advised a delayed approach on the HG 05-15. It would have been safe on the initial reaction, but jumping in long at the beginning of the :02 bar would have been safe for 24 ticks in 5 min.
3/31/2015 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.3
Actual: 49.6
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.7525
1st Bar Span – 2.7525 – 2.7515 (1 min)
2 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused only 2 ticks of total movement on the :46 bar to make the decision to cancel easy. The market was likely still digesting the large manufacturing report from 45 min earlier that jolted the market.
4/22/2015 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.5
Actual: 49.2
Previous Revision: +0.4 to 49.6
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 2.6760
1st Peak @ 2.6740 – 2046:54 (2 min)
4 ticks
Reversal to 2.6810 – 2156 (11 min)
14 ticks
Notes: Report mildly fell short of the forecast with a healthy upward previous report revision. This caused a small 4 tick short spike in 2 min that started on the 50 SMA and fell only 1 tick in the first 38 sec to make it an easy decision to cancel the order. After the meager spike, it reversed 14 ticks in 11 min to the HOD. After that is fell for a large reversal that was likely reacting to the rise at 2100 as opposed to this report.
We also recommended the 6A as an alternative to the HG with limit orders using 10 as the slippage setting. It saw a premature short move and choppy movement to invalidate the trade.